WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 585, 30 July, 2009 KYRGYZ ELECTION UPDATES 2009
INCUMBENT KYRGYZ PRESIDENTS CONVINCING VICTORY Monitors and opposition politicians claim serious irregularities marred July 23 poll. By Timur Toktonaliev in Bishkek (RCA No. 585, 28-Jul-09) KYRGYZSTAN: RUSSIAN BASE PLAN ALARMS TASHKENT Uzbekistan fears Moscows motives for offering to station troops close to its borders. By Timur Toktonaliev in Bishkek (RCA No. 585, 30-Jul-09) **** NEW ************************************************************************************ 2009 KYRGYZ ELECTION UPDATES: http://iwpr.net/kyrgyzelection09 ??????? ????????????? ??????? ? ??????????? 2009: http://iwpr.net/kyrgyzvybory09 NEW VACANCIES AVAILABLE http://iwpr.net/vacancies BECOME A FAN OF IWPR ON FACEBOOK: http://iwpr.net/facebook FOLLOW US ON TWITTER at http://twitter.com/iwpr **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** CENTRAL ASIA RADIO: http://iwpr.net/centralasiaradio CENTRAL ASIA PROGRAMME HOME: http://iwpr.net/centralasia IWPR COMMENT: http://iwpr.net/comment SAHAR JOURNALISTS ASSISTANCE FUND: http://iwpr.net/sahar **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA RSS: http://www.iwpr.net/en/rca/rss.xml RECEIVE FROM IWPR: Readers are urged to subscribe to IWPR's full range of free electronic publications at: http://iwpr.net/subscribe GIVE TO IWPR: IWPR is wholly dependent upon grants and donations. For more information about how you can support IWPR go to: http://iwpr.net/donate **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** KYRGYZ ELECTION UPDATES 2009 INCUMBENT KYRGYZ PRESIDENTS CONVINCING VICTORY Monitors and opposition politicians claim serious irregularities marred July 23 poll. By Timur Toktonaliev in Bishkek Voting irregularities have been alleged by local and international organisations and the opposition in the re-election last week of Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiev. Bakiev, leader of the ruling Ak Jol party, was re-elected with 76.12 per cent of the votes in the July 23 poll, according to final figures from the Central Electoral Commission, CEC. His re-election comes in very different circumstances from his first victory in March 2005 when he became president on the wave of the so-called Tulip revolution, a popular uprising that ousted the then president Askar Akaev. Since then Bakiev a former opposition leader has gone on to strengthen his authority. He pushed for a new constitution in a referendum in 2007, curtailing the power of the parliament in favour of his own. Some of his alienated former associates joined the opposition camp and in November 2008 set up an umbrella group, the United Peoples Movement, UPM, with the aim of ousting Bakiev. Bakievs main opponent, Almazbek Atambaev, the leader of the Social Democratic Party and nominated by the UPM, came second with just 8.41 per cent of the vote. The other four candidates scored about ten per cent of the total vote. Temir Sariev, the leader of Ak Shumkar party, was third with 6.74 per cent and Toktaim Umetalieva came fourth with 1.14 per cent. The leader of the Joomart Patriotic Movement and co-leader of the Kyrgyz Muslim Union, Nurlan Motuev, scored only 0.93 per cent and Jenishbek Nazaraliev, a doctor specialising in treating drug users, took sixth place with only 0.83 per cent. According to the CEC, the turnout was 79.1 per cent of the 2.7 million eligible to vote. The population is five million. Rights groups and international organisations criticised the conduct of the election, alleging vote-rigging and other irregularities. They also criticised new regulations that introduced voting on a working day polls were previously held at the weekend the recognition of a driving licence for voter identification and dropping the use of indelible ink to mark voters. Critics say voting on a weekday enables the authorities to bus public sector workers to the polls en masse; allowing the use of the driving licence weakens identity checks; and not using ink marking increases the risk of multiple voting. Around 10,000 local and 516 international observers monitored the presidential election, according to the CEC. Their preliminary findings were published the day after the election on July 24. The Union of Civic Organisations, UCO, said that the election was held with massive violations which included ballot-box stuffing, the failure on the part of electoral committee members to provide election minutes to the UCO observers, and the use of administrative resource in favour of one of the candidates. In its letter to the CEC, the UCO said that elections should be held at the weekend, the ink-marking of voters fingers should be resumed, the list of identification documents should be reduced, and photo- and video-coverage should be allowed during the voting and the vote count. The UCO representatives said all the violations will be reported to the CEC. Observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCE, said in their preliminary report that the election again fell short of key standards Kyrgyzstan has committed to as a participating state of the OSCE. We have concluded that sadly the election did not show the progress we were hoping for . . . The conduct of the election on the voting day was a disappointment, said Radmila Sekerinska, the head of the OSCE observer mission. The election day was characterised by many problematic issues and violations, including ballot-box stuffing, mistakes in voters lists, and some evidence that some people voted several times. The process has deteriorated during the vote count and summing up of the vote, said the interim report. In its preliminary report, the European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations, ENEMO, found similar violations. The CEC did not deny that there were some irregularities during the election. However, its representatives said that these were minor and did not affect election results. Kudaybergen Bazarbaev, who heads the CEC administration, told IWPR, Any election process may include some mistakes. The CEC decisions are governed by the law and facts. Anyone can point out flaws. We do not work with anonymous complaints. Bakievs election team disagreed with the critics, saying the election was legitimate and fair despite some minor violations. There have been no grave and massive violations during the election that could impact the final election results, said the first deputy chairman of the Ak Jol party, Tabyldy Orozaliev. Bakievs convincing victory shows that people trust the president, Ulugbek Ormonov, the head of the Ak Jol faction in parliament, said. Other candidates observers and local groups are still sending their complaints about violations to the CEC. According to CEC member Alexey Eliseev, the CEC has received about 100 appeals, all of which would be given proper consideration. All six candidates, except Bakiev and Motuev, were critical of the election. Atambaev, Bakievs former prime minister, called the election illegitimate and promised to start protests on July 29. His election team said the poll was held with unprecedented violations and falsifications. According to Bakyt Beshimov, who heads Atambaevs election team, the Social Democrats held their own exit poll on the election day, which indicated that Atambaev was winning the election with 60.6 per cent, while Bakiev was losing with 25.1 per cent. The candidate from the Ak Shumkar party, Temir Sariev, who earlier left the UPM, questioned the fairness of the vote count, although his comments were not as strong as that of the UPM representatives. We have had a unique chance, we wanted to take part in fair election. But I can say that there has not been a fair election, said Sariev. Toktaim Umetalieva, who heads the Association of Non-Commercial and Non-Government Organisations, said the turnout was actually much lower about 60 per cent than the 80 per cent reported by the CEC. Despite reassurances by the CEC that it will deal with complaints, Atambaevs social democrats are planning countrywide protests on July 29 to claim that votes were cast for him but not counted. On July 23, immediately after polls closed, Atambaev and Nazaraliev held a concert and rally near Atambaevs office. The event lasted just two hours after the minister of the interior, Moldomusa Kongantiev, said that unauthorised meetings would be prevented from taking place. Both analysts and the presidents supporters doubt that people are in the mood to protest. Some are busy working, those who are on holiday are not interested and some will fear getting in trouble with police, they say. Ormonov said people will not support Atambaev because of his refusal to take part in the election on polling day. They campaigned with great commitment but then he abandoned them. I think people will not go, Ormonov said. Political analysts believe that people are unlikely to support the opposition, as Bakievs political strategists did a good job in persuading the electorate to vote for him by increasing salaries and pensions and creating jobs. According to political scientist Mars Sariev, the situation has changed from March 2005. The publics negative sentiment towards Bakiev is as strong as their dislike of Akaev, who ruled the country for 15 years, he said. In addition, Sariev said, Bakievs circle will find ways to calm down his opponents and even to buy them out. Political strategists will try to engage [opposition members], offer some posts, probably change the government, and elect the new parliament, Sariev said. I do not know how much the opposition will be able to withstand the temptation. Timur Toktonaliev is an IWPR-trained contributor. KYRGYZSTAN: RUSSIAN BASE PLAN ALARMS TASHKENT Uzbekistan fears Moscows motives for offering to station troops close to its borders. By Timur Toktonaliev in Bishkek Russian plans to open a second military base in Kyrgyzstan are being seen as a challenge to neighbouring Uzbekistan, which regards itself as the dominant power in the region. Tashkent is clearly unhappy about a scheme which would see a highly mobile force of foreign troops stationed close to its border in the unstable Fergana valley. Moscows existing military facility at Kant in northern Kyrgyzstan is used for combat aircraft and is seen as a counterbalance to the United States airbase located only a few kilometers away. The new one, if it came into being, would be located far to the south, near the Kyrgyz border with Uzbekistan. Formally, the force deployed there would, like the Kant airbase, come under the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, a post-Soviet security grouping that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as well as Russia and Kyrgyzstan. The CSTO already has a joint force for rapid deployment, but in February 2009, members agreed to a Russian proposal to create a more powerful military formation, the Collective Rapid-Reaction Force, consisting of 20,000 soldiers drawn from CSTO states with armoured units and artillery. It is this new force that would have a presence in southern Kyrgyzstan. When the CSTO signed an agreement on the new force on June 14, Uzbekistan and Belarus refrained from doing so. Rumours that southern Kyrgyzstan was under consideration as one location for the CSTO troops started circulating after a July 7 meeting between President Kurmanbek Bakiev and Russias deputy prime minister Igor Sechin and defence minister Anatoly Serdyukov. Neither government would confirm that the base was discussed at these talks, but on July 29 the Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted Russian presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko as saying, "Everything has been agreed, in principle." Speaking ahead of a CSTO meeting in the Kyrgyz resort town of Cholpon Ata scheduled for July 31, Prikhodko stressed, "In essence, this is not a Russian base. These are efforts in line with CSTO plans to set up a joint rapid-reaction force." In interviews for the New York Times and Reuters news agency in mid-July, President Bakiev described the proposal in slightly different terms, as a Russian-Kyrgyz counter-terrorism centre that would be used for training purposes. Analysts in Kyrgyzstan offer a variety of reasons why Moscow might want to take on a second military commitment in Kyrgyzstan. One obvious explanation is continuing concern over continuing violence in Afghanistan, and the possible spill-over of Islamic insurgency into Central Asia. Such concerns will have been increased by recent violence in Tajikistan, which lies between Afghan territory and the Kyrgyz south; and before that in Uzbekistan. (On the Tajik unrest, see Taming Tajikistans Eastern Valleys, RCA No. 584, 23-Jul-09, and Chasing Phantoms in the Tajik Mountains, RCA No. 581, 24-Jun-09; and on the attacks in Uzbekistan in late May, Andijan Attackers Identity Still Unclear, News Briefing Central Asia, 27-May-09.) The Kyrgyz perception that security needs to be bolstered on its southern periphery is understandable, given the recent history of this part of the country, from incursions by guerrillas from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in 1999-2000, to clashes between police and suspected militants this year (reported by IWPR in Upsurge in Militant Presence in Kyrgyzstan, RCA No. 582, 03-Jul-09). Logically, this is an area where Bishkek and Tashkent should share a common interest. But the Uzbeks are wary of any external power taking up residence near their borders. While the Uzbek government has not formally commented on the planned location of the base, an anonymous senior official told the RIA Novosti that Tashkent categorically objects to new foreign military bases being established in neighbouring states. Meanwhile, an Uzbek foreign ministry press release issued four days after the June 14 meeting contained implicit criticism of the terms under which the rapid-reaction force had been conceived. It stressed that the purpose of CSTO joint military action must only be to respond to threats emanating from outside member states, rather than to help deal with internal strife, and added that any decision to intervene must be by a consensus among members. Mars Sariev, a political analyst in Kyrgyzstan, suspects that the talk of stationing troops near the Uzbek border is no more than a tactical ploy designed to make Tashkent more compliant with Russias wishes, specifically to force it to sign up to the Collective Rapid-Reaction Force. Its creating an arena for talks with Uzbekistan a new base as an instrument by which the CSTO can pressure Uzbekistan into accepting the rapid-reaction force. If that happens, its possible the base will then recede as an issue, said Sariev, who regards the issue as a diplomatic battle between Russian and Uzbekistan, with Kyrgyzstan merely used as the weapon of choice. Farhod Tolipov, a political analyst from Tashkent, sees the entire project as misconceived, especially if it is intended as a threat to Uzbekistan, which has never done anything so offensive to Moscow as to warrant this kind of tactic. As it tries to exert its influence, Russia is more liable to exacerbate problems by introducing a military dimension. Influence needs to be exerted by political methods, diplomacy and negotiations, he said. Uzbekistan has never displayed hostile intentions towards Russia or other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States or the CSTO. If it holds back in certain areas, especially when it comes to defence, that doesnt mean it has turned its back on the [CSTO] organisation or on Russia itself. For the moment, the future of the CSTO base in the south appears to have little bearing on relations between Kyrgyzstan and another great power, the United States. Visiting Bishkek, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns told a July 12 press conference that this was entirely a matter for Kyrgyzstan. Any step that strengthens the sovereignty, independence and security of Kyrgyzstan is a sensible one, he said. The issue of a second Russian base might have had more resonance earlier in the year, when it seemed the Kyrgyz authorities were about to evict the Americans from their air base outside Bishkek, However, in early July a new agreement was signed under which the base is re-designated as a freight transit hub but basically stays in place. (See US Base in Kyrgyzstan Renamed but Remains, RCA No. 581, 26-Jun-09.) Timur Toktonaliev is an IWPR-trained journalist in Kyrgyzstan. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. The service is published online in English and Russian. The opinions expressed in Reporting Central Asia are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR. 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