Reporting Central Asia No. 595 Part 2
WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 595 Part 2, November 20, 2009 SPECIAL REPORT IS UZBEK GUERRILLA FORCE PLANNING HOMECOMING? Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has relocated next door to Tajikistan, but analysts doubt it will move back into Central Asia. By Ainagul Abdrakhmanova, Aida Kasymalieva, Inga Sikorskaya, and Anara Yusupova in Bishkek, and Lola Olimova and ?rdasher Tahamtan in Dushanbe SHOULD CENTRAL ASIA FEAR TALEBAN SPILLOVER? Upsurge in militant activity in Central Asia will be contained, although security should be stepped up in border areas. By Sanobar Shermatova in Moscow NEW VIDEOS OF THE 2009 KURT SCHORK AWARDS CEREMONY http://iwpr.net/kurtschork09 VACANCIES AVAILABLE http://iwpr.net/vacancies CENTRAL ASIA HUMAN RIGHTS REPORTING PROJECT http://iwpr.net/centralasiahumanrights IWPR RESOURCES ** CENTRAL ASIA RADIO: http://iwpr.net/centralasiaradio CENTRAL ASIA PROGRAMME HOME: http://iwpr.net/centralasia IWPR COMMENT: http://iwpr.net/comment SAHAR JOURNALISTS ASSISTANCE FUND: http://iwpr.net/sahar BECOME A FAN OF IWPR ON FACEBOOK http://facebook.com/InstituteforWarandPeaceReporting FOLLOW US ON TWITTER http://twitter.com/iwpr www.iwpr.net REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA RSS: http://www.iwpr.net/en/rca/rss.xml RECEIVE FROM IWPR: Readers are urged to subscribe to IWPR's full range of free electronic publications at: http://iwpr.net/subscribe GIVE TO IWPR: IWPR is wholly dependent upon grants and donations. For more information about how you can support IWPR go to: http://iwpr.net/donate www.iwpr.net SPECIAL REPORT IS UZBEK GUERRILLA FORCE PLANNING HOMECOMING? Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has relocated next door to Tajikistan, but analysts doubt it will move back into Central Asia. By Ainagul Abdrakhmanova, Aida Kasymalieva, Inga Sikorskaya, and Anara Yusupova in Bishkek, and Lola Olimova and ?rdasher Tahamtan in Dushanbe Central Asias most feared Islamic group is back in the news, with reports that it has regrouped in northern Afghanistan close to the border with Tajikistan. At first sight, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, looks positioned to mount a repeat of the incursions it mounted in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan a decade ago, especially as a string of armed attacks were reported over the summer. Despite the reported death of its leader Tohir Yoldash, the IMU still seems to be a cohesive military force with a radical Islamist agenda. With powerful alliances with the Taleban and al-Qaeda, it could in theory pose a serious security threat to the former Soviet states of Central Asia. When IWPR reporters questioned security experts in the region, they agreed that sporadic outbreaks of violence in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, in particular, make the threat of renewed insurgent activity possible. But they said that for the moment, this would not be on a scale that Central Asian governments could not handle, and the IMU lacked a substantial following in the region. If Yoldash is indeed dead which a recent report throws into some doubt there are questions about whether the IMU will survive in its present form under a new leader or break up into smaller factions. Some experts also suggest that the group has relocated to Afghanistan not entirely by choice, but because the combination of a major Pakistani ground offensive and United States unmanned planes on a mission to pick off al-Qaedas top men is making their stay in South Waziristan untenable. UZBEK MILITANTS ON THE MOVE This autumn, Afghan officials have expressed repeated concern that the Taleban are shifting forces to the north of the country. Talking to journalists on September 23, Afghan General Mustafa Patang said hundreds of militants had arrived in the north. IMU forces are part of this flow, and many seem to have turned up in Kunduz province, which adjoins Tajikistan, although they have also been sighted in other northern provinces. (See IWPRs report on this: Could IMU Chief's Death Curb Rebel Force in Afghanistan?, ARR No. 340, 07-Oct-09.) Tohir Yoldashs men have come to northern Afghanistan and have caused much of our recent insecurity, General Khalilullah Aminzada, security chief of Jowzjan province in the northwest, told IWPR reporters in Afghanistan earlier this autumn. Sanobar Shermatova, a Moscow-based Central Asia analyst, has argued in an article entitled Should Central Asia Fear Taleban Spillover? that on the one hand, the Uzbek militants have moved because their stronghold in South Waziristan is no longer a safe haven; and on the other, that they have been assigned Kunduz as their ar
Reporting Central Asia No. 595
WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 595, November 13, 2009 RETURN TO DEATH PENALTY FLOATED IN KYRGYZSTAN Parliaments refusal to sign international ban on executions seen as a bad sign. By Anara Yusupova in Bishkek COMMENT SHOULD CENTRAL ASIA FEAR TALEBAN SPILLOVER? Upsurge in militant activity in Central Asia will be contained, although security should be stepped up in border areas. By Sanobar Shermatova in Moscow NEW NEW VACANCIES AVAILABLE http://iwpr.net/vacancies CENTRAL ASIA HUMAN RIGHTS REPORTING PROJECT http://iwpr.net/centralasiahumanrights IWPR RESOURCES ** CENTRAL ASIA RADIO: http://iwpr.net/centralasiaradio CENTRAL ASIA PROGRAMME HOME: http://iwpr.net/centralasia IWPR COMMENT: http://iwpr.net/comment SAHAR JOURNALISTS ASSISTANCE FUND: http://iwpr.net/sahar BECOME A FAN OF IWPR ON FACEBOOK http://facebook.com/InstituteforWarandPeaceReporting FOLLOW US ON TWITTER http://twitter.com/iwpr www.iwpr.net REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA RSS: http://www.iwpr.net/en/rca/rss.xml RECEIVE FROM IWPR: Readers are urged to subscribe to IWPR's full range of free electronic publications at: http://iwpr.net/subscribe GIVE TO IWPR: IWPR is wholly dependent upon grants and donations. For more information about how you can support IWPR go to: http://iwpr.net/donate www.iwpr.net RETURN TO DEATH PENALTY FLOATED IN KYRGYZSTAN Parliaments refusal to sign international ban on executions seen as a bad sign. By Anara Yusupova in Bishkek A proposal to restore capital punishment has caused debate and outrage in Kyrgyzstan, where the death penalty has not been applied for more than a decade. Now being discussed by members of parliament, the idea was first floated by Murat Sutalinov, head of Kyrgyzstans National Security Committee, who even suggested that executions be carried out in public. Like other post-Soviet states, Kyrgyzstan no longer has the death penalty on its lawbooks. After a moratorium on carrying out executions lasting from 1998, capital punishment was formally abolished in 2007. The 189 convicts on death row had their sentences commuted to life. There are currently 204 individuals serving life sentences, according to Citizens Against Corruption, a human rights group. Sutalinov made his controversial proposal when the subject of tougher penalties came up at a September 23 meeting of Kyrgyzstans Security Council, a body which brings together the heads of various police and security agencies. Kyrgyzstan should not look to the West or the OSCE, he said. It should introduce capital punishment for certain crimes. In some cases, executions should be held in public. In my view, this will help reduce the crime rate. His proposal was immediately backed by the secretary of Security Council, Adakhan Madumarov, who asked, Why should society maintain people who have committed serious crimes against it? Even the United States, regarded as a model democracy, has three methods of capital punishment. The Security Council which is now being dismantled as part of wide-ranging reforms announced by President Kurmanbek Bakiev was quick to say that its head was speaking in a purely personal capacity. Madumarovs view in no way reflects the official stance of the Kyrgyz authorities or his own position as secretary of the Security Council, said a statement from the organisation. The decision taken at the Security Council session makes no mention of returning this penalty to legal practice. Despite this retraction, Sutalinovs idea has become a live issue in Kyrgyzstan. On November 11, the Ak Jol faction in the Kyrgyz parliament voted not to back a motion to ratify a United Nations agreement banning the death penalty. Since Ak Jol dominates the legislature, the decision means parliament as a whole is likely to vote against ratification when it comes to debate it. The Second Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights requires signatories to ban the use of capital punishment. Since Kyrgyzstan has already done so, signing up to the protocol should not have been contentious. Refusing to do so has been seen by some analysts as reflecting a broader authoritarian impulse among the ruling elite. Ak Jols debate showed that opinion among party members was divided, but those who held the majority opinion cited arguments ranging from the need to crack down on crime to the high cost of maintaining life prisoners. One member, Askar Salymbekov, said public opinion was 80 or 90 per cent in favour of reinstatement, the AKIpress news agency reported. The parliamentary committee for int
