WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 631, October 18, 2010 MILITANT ISLAMIC FORCE SIGNALS RETURN TO CENTRAL ASIA Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan says it has new leader and can attack targets in Central Asia. By IWPR Central Asia
KYRGYZ PARTIES GET DOWN TO COALITION-BUILDING Race to secure parliamentary majority before president formally anoints governing party. 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By IWPR Central Asia Recent statements by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU, announcing a new leader and taking responsibility for an attack in which 25 government troops were killed in Tajikistan have raised questions about whether the guerrilla group plans to revive its presence in Central Asia. Central Asias most feared Islamic group, which launched raids into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in 1999 and 2000, relocated to South Waziristan in Pakistans tribal area after the fall of the Taleban government in Afghanistan in late 2001. However, over the last year or so, many IMU members are reported to have seeped into the northeast of Afghanistan, adjacent to Tajikistan. In part this was due to pressure exerted by Pakistani army ground offensives and drone attacks by the United States military. But their relocation to northern Afghanistan was seen by some analysts as a possible Taleban ploy to disrupt NATO supplies coming through Central Asia, at a time when convoys on the southern route from Pakistan faces rising threats from militant attacks. (IWPR reported on this issue in Is Uzbek Guerrilla Force Planning Homecoming?) In mid-August, a website linked to the IMU carried news that it had selected a new leader, Usmon Odil. According to the statement, Odil replaces Tohir Yoldash, who it said died last year. Yoldash was a well-known activist in Uzbekistans Fergana Valley in the early 1990s, where he was part of an Islamic group that emerged in the city of Namangan. Members of the group moved to Tajikistan to and fought alongside Islamist guerrillas 1992-97 civil war, and then emerged as the IMU, dedicated to toppling the governments of Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states, later shifting to Afghanistan and then Pakistan. Yoldash was reported to have been injured or killed by a rocket fired by a US drone plane in South Waziristan August 2009, but this had not been confirmed conclusively until the IMU admitted the fact, showing him on his deathbed in a video dated August 2010. (See our report from the time Could IMU Chief's Death Curb Rebel Force in Afghanistan?.) The IMU said it held off publicising his death so that Muslims would not feel dispirited and the infidels could not rejoice. Little is known about the new leader, Odil, except that he apparently comes from Namangan and is married to Yoldashs eldest daughter. On September 23, a video recording was sent to RFE/RL radios Tajik service showing a man who identified himself as IMU spokesman Abdufattoh Ahmadi, and claimed responsibility for an attack on an army convoy in eastern Tajikistan four days earlier in which 25 soldiers were killed. The troops had been sent into the areas to track down 25 prisoners who escaped from a prison in the capital Dushanbe in August. The Tajik authorities were concerned at the reappearance of armed groups in the eastern mountains, 13 years after the end of the Tajik civil war. Since civil war-era guerrilla leaders had been allied with the force that would later become the IMU, the prospect of a link-up with battle-hardened Uzbek militants based on the Afghan side of a porous border was especially alarming. (See Tajik Authorities Struggle to Quell Militants.) In the recording, Ahmadi said the attack was in retaliation for Tajik government policies such as closing mosques, jailing Muslims and banning Islamic forms of dress. However, he also hinted at a wider, geopolitical dimension to the IMUs ambitions, saying it opposed the Tajik authorities cooperation with the international military presence in Afghanistan. The current risk posed by the IMU to the Central Asian states in particular Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan remains uncertain, but is likely to differ in nature in each of these three states. Tajikistans proximity to Afghanistan and the apparent resurgence of armed groups either sympathetic to the IMU, or possibly in contact with it, is an obvious concern. The 1999-2000 raids into Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan were conducted from mountainous parts of Tajikistan where the IMU had local allies. Southern Kyrgyzstan is only just recovering from a wave of clashes between the ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbek communities in June, which left 400 dead. Andrei Medvedev, director of the Centre for Political Technologies in Moscow, argues that instability in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan offers the IMU a chance to gain a foothold. The situation in the region has reached a peak of intensity, and the situation is ripe for a range of terrorist activities, he said. I dont think the IMUs situation has changed [for the worse]; on the contrary it has become stronger. Of the three countries that could become targets for IMU activities, Uzbekistan is probably best placed to contain any outbreak of fighting. Farhod Tolipov, an analyst based in Tashkent, said violent extremist groups like the IMU could only ever present localised threats. They are always a danger, in the sense that they can carry out localised subversive acts. But all the experience of counter-terrorism to date shows that when radical groups emerge, government forces in the [Central Asian] region can take them on and deal with them, Tolipov said. He said there was little popular appetite for Islamic radicalism, and groups like the IMU had few supporters. If their ideas were popular among the population we would have already seen large-scale disturbances. While the south of Kyrgyzstan has long been a hotbed of Islamist sentiment, religion did not appear to play much of a role in the conflict, but some experts warn that the IMU could try to exploit the residual resentments to try to reinsert itself into the area and win support among local Uzbeks. Tashpulat Yoldashev, an analyst from Uzbekistan now living in the United States, said there was a risk of the IMU gaining ground in southern Kyrgyzstan. There are people whove lost everything all their relatives, homes and properties. I am worried that they might join the IMU and end up fighting in Kyrgyzstan, he said. Yoldashev said the IMUs latest statements and threats were designed to show the world it is becoming more active. This article was produced jointly under two IWPR projects: Building Central Asian Human Rights Protection & Education Through the Media, funded by the European Commission; and the Human Rights Reporting, Confidence Building and Conflict Information Programme, funded by the Foreign Ministry of Norway. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of IWPR and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of either the European Union or the Foreign Ministry of Norway. KYRGYZ PARTIES GET DOWN TO COALITION-BUILDING Race to secure parliamentary majority before president formally anoints governing party. By Pavel Dyatlenko, Timur Toktonaliev With no clear winner in Kyrgyzstans parliamentary election, the five parties that gained seats have immediately plunged into a race to build a ruling coalition with the right to choose the next prime minister. The October 10 polls went off peacefully, a particular achievement given the political turbulence that has troubled Kyrgyzstan since Kurmanbek Bakiev was forced from presidential office in April and the mass violence that left over 400 dead in June. Not only that, but the conduct of the vote won rare accolades from international observers, who described it as largely free and fair. The last few weeks show that Kyrgyzstan can hold elections marked by pluralism, an independent election administration and respect for fundamental freedoms, OSCE election monitoring mission head Corien Jonker said. At a September 13 press conference, reported by the 24.kg news agency, Justice Minister Aida Salyanova explained what would happen next since no one party has won an absolute majority, interim president Roza Otunbaeva will ask one of them to form a coalition. Clearly, if one party manages to forge a majority bloc in the interim, the president will have little choice but to give it the nod, so the five parties which won parliamentary seats are already deep in negotiations. There are two main coalition options, one of which would involve Ata-Jurt, which emerged slightly ahead of the pack with nearly nine per cent of the vote, giving it 28 of the 120 seats in parliament. Ata-Jurt is a new political force that won significant support in the south of Kyrgyzstan, and describes itself as a party of national patriots while rejecting accusations that it is holds ethnic Kyrgyz supremacist views. The second possibility is a bloc allying the Social Democratic Party with Ata-Meken, which came second and fifth with 26 and 18 seats, respectively. Both parties are closely associated with the interim administration that replaced ousted president Kurmanbek Bakiev in April, and have members in key positions of power around the country. To get the required absolute majority, either grouping will have to make up the numbers by winning over one or both of the remaining parties the third-placed Ar-Namys with its 25 seats, and the newer Respublika with 23. Leading political analyst Mars Sariev predicts a contest that pits a coalition consisting of Ata-Jurt and Ar-Namys against the Social Democrats and Ata-Meken. Both these groups will fight to get Respublika as they need a third party to form a government, he said. Political analyst Valentin Bogatyrev says that apart from the two obvious blocs, other, quite exotic coalitions are possible, as are coalitions of more than three parties providing they can agree on the distribution of jobs. There is also a possibility, he says, that some parties will opt out of the coalition-building process entirely so as avoid being associated with the difficult business of government, especially over the winter period when Kyrgyzstan often experiences energy shortages. Instead, theyll build themselves up for the presidential election which will take place at the end of 2011, he said. The multiplicity of choices results from a constitution passed by national referendum in June designed to create greater democracy. It gave parliament more powers and diluted those of the president, to prevent the slide towards authoritarian rule that Kyrgyzstan experienced under Bakiev and his predecessor Askar Akaev. With authority now residing in the legislature, no governing party able to fix the result in its favour, and the number of seats expanded from 90 to 120, the election drew an unprecedented field of 29 competing parties. Political analyst Mars Sariev believes the election result means that Kyrgyzstans major political forces are now inside parliament rather than outside it, and that could be a good thing for stability. While some have accused Ata-Jurt of being a stalking-horse for Bakiev and seeking to engineer his return from exile in Belarus something the party denies Sariev does not see this happening. This configuration accurately reflects the true political spectrum in Kyrgyzstan . I dont think those parties that didnt make it into parliament are going to be able to rock the boat, because the main players that would really have the resources to do that have got in, he said. These elite groups will now seek an informal arrangement; they will negotiate a consensus, a balance of their interests, and a division of the assets of government and finance. I dont think theres going to be a return by Bakiev. Alexei Malashenko, a Central Asia expert with the Carnegie Centre in Moscow, said it was important for the elected parties to confine their arguments to the floor of the legislature. The party leaders are very ambitious. Its going to be very difficult to reach compromises, but they must because if they dont, it will be bad for everyone, he said. A power struggle is now under way, and if it takes place within some kind of parliamentary format, that will be great. It will mean the difficult initial phase of parliamentarianism has been passed successfully. Talking about potential divisions in the political process, Malashenko said, I dont believe theres going to be Kyrgyz nationalism, although that trend does exist and cannot be discounted. Its also very important that no one tries to play the north-versus-south card. For Bogatyrev, the main question is how viable the new government will be. There could be points where a minister from one party refuses to work under a prime minister from another. That would be fatal for Kyrgyzstan given the state its in at the moment. Pavel Dyatlenko is a political analyst with the Polis Asia think-tank in Bishkek. Timur Toktonaliev is an IWPR-trained journalist in Kyrgyzstan. This article was produced jointly under two IWPR projects: Building Central Asian Human Rights Protection & Education Through the Media, funded by the European Commission; and the Human Rights Reporting, Confidence Building and Conflict Information Programme, funded by the Foreign Ministry of Norway. The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of IWPR and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of either the European Union or the Foreign Ministry of Norway. **** http://iwpr.net/ ********************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. 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