“Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts 2004-2009” new visiongain report Mobile phones and broadcast television are two of the most influential and popular consumer technologies of the electronics age. So what happens when the two are merged together? The answer is Mobile TV.
The concept of mobile TV - the ability to watch live, direct broadcasts on mobile handsets - is potentially one of the most disruptive technologies on the horizon for mobile operators, and could dramatically reduce mobile data revenues. Why bother paying to download just a clip of the soccer goal over 3G when you can watch the whole match? Can Video-on-Demand really compete with TV? Is it time to forget Video-on-Demand? What is your company doing about Mobile TV? The new visiongain report “Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts 2004-2009” details how trend-setting carriers in Japan and South Korea are looking to satellites for broadcasting delivery of TV and even digital music content to handsets. But it’s not just these two innovative markets, a few forward-looking mobile operators and manufacturers in Europe have also started trials of the technology. So there is no doubt about it, Mobile TV is coming and you need to be aware of its potential now. Visiongain believes Mobile TV has the potential to become a success in the non-voice segment. Indeed, the ability to watch movie trailers, news, sport and TV show clips is seen as one of the main offerings and differentiators of the 3G networks that European mobile operators spent billions of Euro on. It is true that 3G operators hold a first-mover advantage in providing TV content, but ‘real’ mobile TV will come into its own with digital, multicast technology, which offers higher quality at a lower cost. TV phones capable of capturing analogue signals have been around for a while. But it is really the addition of mobile digital media broadcasting (DMB) technology that will allow Mobile TV to come into its own. Samsung and Nokia are among those handset manufacturers that have announced phones that will be able to handle digital TV signals, and both are expected to be on the market in 2005. These devices with built-in digital TV receivers, to be released by the world's largest and third largest manufacturers, promise to provide a boost for handset demand, and are just two of a plethora of phones that will hit the market in the coming years. In this 180+ page visiongain forecasts that if Mobile TV is priced and packaged correctly, there could be up to 270 million subscribers worldwide with TV functionality on their mobile phones by 2009. Why You Need To Buy This Report With over 70 charts and tables, this report provides insight into the services, pricing and business model of mobile operators that have already launched TV, as well as providing 'best and worst case' subscriber and revenue forecasts up until 2009. The report gives an overview of the Mobile TV market in its current and future form, the technology behind the services and the various solutions offered by the leading vendors. The challenges facing the industry are discussed and recommendations to help this service to reach its full potential are also provided. Key Points Of This Report Include: - Investigation and analysis of the drivers of Mobile TV; - Consumer demand and usage patterns of watching TV on the move; - Technology overviews of DVB-H, satellite DMB amongst others; - Cost-benefit analysis of general vs. mobile-specific tailored content; and - Emerging relationships between broadcast companies, mobile operators and content providers. Below is the full table of contents: Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts 2004-2009 - Table of contents Chapter 1. Introduction 1.1 TV is coming to a phone near you Chart 1: Revenues from mobile communication, information and entertainment content, 2003-2009 1.2 Defining mobile TV 1.3 Focus of this report Chapter 2. Overview 2.1 Convergence of mobility and broadcasting Figure 1: Internet-led technology convergence Chart 2: Mobile penetration rates in selected countries 2.1.1 Mobiles and TV are already successful bedfellows Chart 3: TV generated SMS and MMS, 2002-2007 Chart 4: SMS TV revenue, 2002-2007 2.2 Digital TV is a catalyst for mobile TV Table 1: DTV penetration by European country, 2001 & 2006 2.3 The DTV landscape in Asia-Pacific Chart 5: Number of households with digital TV in Asia-Pacific, 2003, 2005 and 2010 Chart 6: DTV breakdown by technology 2.4 The first steps of mobile digital TV 2.4.1 TVMobile Table 2: TVMobile viewer numbers by time of the day Table 3: TVMobile advertising spot buy rates Figure 2: Overview of TV mobile digital TV network infrastructure and platforms 2.4.2 Terrestrial Broadcasting Tokyo Pilot Project Table 4: Tokyo Pilot phase 2 experiment outline - video transmission Table 5: Tokyo Pilot phase 2 experiment outline - EPG/data transmission 2.5 Waking up to the idea of mobile TV 2.6 Why push for mobile TV services? Chart 7: Time spent watching TV 2.6.1 Mobile operator objectives with mobile TV 2.6.1.1 Higher revenue 2.5.3 Increased acquisition 2.5.4 Lower churn 2.7 TV phones will not go the way of portable television sets Chapter 3. Technical focus 3.1 Digital technology and standards behind TV on mobile phones Table 6: Standards and their characteristics for digital terrestrial TV broadcasting Figure 3: Adoption of digital standard by country 3.2 DVB Chart 8: Technical choices for a mobile operator 3.3 DVB-H Figure 4: DVB-H signal architecture 3.3.1 DVB-H specification is approved 3.4 IPDC Figure 5: Using IP datacast technology to make TV mobile 3.4.1 IP Datacast Forum 3.4.2 Differences between terrestrial and mobile digital TV Table 7: Technology comparison between fixed digital TV and mobile phone TV 3.4.3 DVB Project 3.5 MBMS Figure 6: Delivery of DVB-TV services via UMTS 3.5.1 Cismundus 3.5.2 Using cellular for mobile iTV 3.6 DAB 3.7 ISDB-T Figure 7: Functional block diagrams of an ISDB-T receiver Figure 8: ISDB-T segments, modulation and transfer rate 3.8 ATSC 3.9 OFDM Table 8: COFDM characteristics 3.9.1 OFDM and 4G CDMA 3.9.2 BST-COFDM 3.10 MPEG-4 AVC/H.264 Chart 9: Coding efficiency comparison Table 9: MPEG-2 vs MPEG-4 comparison Table 10: Technical and licensing comparison of video codecs for broadcasting on mobile devices Chapter 4. Handsets Chart 10: Mobile handset shipments, 2003-2009 Table 11: Current and planned TV-enabled handset models 4.1 Integrating TV functionality into mobile handsets Table 12: Technical requirements for receiving terrestrial digital TV on mobile phones Figure 9: Digital TV handset design architecture 4.2 Screen resolution 4.3 User input and interactive menus 4.4 Device integration costs 4.5 Possible issues of contention 4.6 Vendor devices and strategies 4.6.1 Nokia 4.6.1.1 Nokia 7710 multimedia device Table 13: Key features of the 7710 phone Image 1: Nokia 7710 4.6.1.2 Nokia, BBC trial mobile TV 4.6.2 Samsung 4.6.2.1 SCH-M220 Image 2: M220 Table 14: SCH-M220 specifications 4.6.2.2 SPH-V3000 Image 3: V300 Table 15: SPH-V3000 specifications 4.6.2.3 SCH-X820 Table 16: SCH-X820 specifications Image 4: SGH-P705 4.6.2.4 SGH-P705 Table 17: P705 specifications 4.6.2.5 M400 PDA Image 5: M400 Table 18: M400 specifications 4.6.3 NEC 4.6.3.1 NEC 601N Image 6: NEC's 601 handset model 4.6.3.2 NEC 3G digital TV phone Table 19: W-CDMA TV phone specification Image 7: NEC 3G TV phone 4.6.4 Sanyo 4.6.4.1 Sony 4.6.5 Motorola 4.6.6 Sony Ericsson 4.6.6.1 Nokia, NEC, Motorola, Siemens and Sony Ericsson mobile TV standard initiative 4.6.7 KDDI/NHK digital TV PDA Image 8: Prototype PDA 4.6.8 Kane iPAQ Pocket PC PDA Image 9: Vision Station 4.6.9 Mobiles linked to DTV via 2D codes 4.6.10 Freezing TV moments for mobile phones 4.7 TV handset forecasts Chart 11: Mobile digital TV handset shipments, 2004-2009 Chart 12: TV-phone shipments by region, 2004 and 2009 Chapter 5. Vendor solutions 5.1 Samsung 5.2 The world's first DVB-H modulator 5.3 Toshiba 5.4 Sand Video 5.5 Qualcomm 5.5.1 Implications of Qualcomm’s MediaFlo 5.6 DiBcom 5.7 Motorola 5.8 Sharp 5.9 Imagination Technologies 5.10 T-Systems 5.11 Siemens 5.12 SCM Microsystems 5.13 Sony 5.14 TI Chapter 6. Issues to consider 6.1 Copyright protection 6.1.1 Digital Rights Management Figure 10: Buying rights for DRM protected content 6.1.2 The role of clearinghouses 6.1.3 Is protection needed? Figure 11: Copyright protection for broadcasting to home TV Figure 12: Copyright protection for mobile broadcasting 6.2 Legal complications 6.3 Selling the idea of mobile TV to broadcasters 6.4 Standardisation and regulation to support IP datacasting 6.5 Will TV-phone users have to pay licence fees? 6.6 Overcoming industry cynicism Chapter 7. Global markets and deployments 7.1 Overview by region 7.2 Japan and Korea 7.2.1 Mobile digital TV via satellites Figure 13: Satellite DMB network structure Figure 14: Satellite DMB consortium services and fees 7.2.2 DMB consortium business plans Figure 15: Satellite consortium business plan 7.2.3 Hanbyol details Image 10: Hanbyol satellite launch 7.2.4 Terrestrial vs satellite mobile TV Figure 16: Competitive environment: mobile vs terrestrial DMB 7.2.5 Regulatory and other hurdles Table 20: Regulatory environment and regulations related to business approval Table 21: Schedule for digital broadcasting transition in South Korea 7.2.6 Outlook and demand Figure 17: Satellite DMB consortium return on investment Chart 13: Satellite DMB service subscribers, 2004-2010 7.3 Japan Table 22: Moving-picture features of handsets of Japanese mobile operators by network service 7.3.1 NTT DoCoMo Table 23: DoCoMo's subscriber growth (millions) 7.3.1.1 Looking at a mobile TV business case with metadata 7.3.1.2 Digital TV broadcasting or live TV over 3G streaming? 7.3.2 KDDI 7.3.2.1 Hikari Plus TV Table 24: Hikari Plus TV service fees 7.3.3 Vodafone KK 7.3.3.1 Vodafone's TV service has shown early promise Table 25: Vodafone KK subscribers Table 26: January subscriber additions of Japanese mobile operators 7.3.4 Mobile Television Co 7.3.5 Consumer interest in mobile TV Chart 14: Interest in TV functionality and TV on the move Chart 15-17:Demand for mobile TV in Japan by age and gender 7.4 Korea Chart 19: SMS as a percentage of data revenues 7.4.1 SK Telecom 7.4.1.1 TV on SK’s June service Chart 20: 'June' packet occupation and hit rate by service type Chart 21: June vs EV-DO subscriber growth Chart 22: SK's ARPU by handset technology 7.4.2 KTF Chart 23: KTF ARPU by technology 7.5 Australia: Optus 7.6 Thailand: AIS 7.7 Europe 7.7.1 Finland 7.7.1.1 Finland IPDC trials Table 27: Pros and cons of IPDC technology 7.7.2 Czech Republic 7.7.2.1 Eurotel Table 28: Eurotel's subscriber breakdown 7.7.3 Italy 7.7.3.1 TIM 7.7.4 Germany 7.7.4.1 Berlin DVB-H trials 7.7.4.2 T-Mobile 7.7.5 Sweden 7.7.6 UK 7.7.6.1 O2 7.7.6.2 BBC 7.7.6.3 Vodafone 7.7.7 Norway 7.7.8 Netherlands 7.8 US 7.8.1 MobiTV Chart 24: Reasons for purchasing MobiTV Chapter 8. Analysis and forecasts Chart 25: 3G network launches worldwide, Q4 2001-Q2 2005 8.1 New opportunities and the mobile TV value chain Figure 18: IP datacast business ecosystem and value chain 8.1.1 Content providers 8.1.2 Content aggregators 8.1.3 IPDC service operator 8.1.4 Broadcast network operators 8.1.5 Telecoms network operators 8.1.6 Telecoms service operators 8.1.7 Handset manufacturers 8.1.8 Consumers 8.2 Mobile TV as a cultural phenomenon Chart 26: Mobile phone owners in selected European countries that endorse the idea of mobile TV Charts 27-29:Potential mobile TV market in selected European countries 8.3 The business case for mobile TV Chart 30: Daily media consumption in selected countries Chart 31: Growth in FOMA subscribers 8.4 Mobile TV content services Chart 32: Preference of mobile TV channels in Finland Chart 33: Preference of mobile TV channels in Sweden Chart 34: Preference of mobile TV channels in the UK 8.4.1 Electronic Service Guide Chart 35: The amount of use of additional services during VTT's mobile TV trial 8.4.2 Value-added services 8.5 Market demand and usage patterns 8.5.1 News, entertainment or movies? 8.5.2 Mobile TV consumption by location and time of day Chart 36: Mobile TV log-ins by time of day 8.5.3 High endorsement of mobile TV in Europe Chart 37: Mobile TV subscribers, 2004-2009 8.6 Revenues Chart 38: Will TV-enabled handsets be a serious threat to operators' future revenues from data content? Chart 39: Revenues from mobile TV, 2004-2009 8.6.1 Revenue sharing 8.7 Pricing models Table 29: Possible pricing scenarios Chart 40: Payment preferences for mobile TV 8.8 Marketing mobile TV 8.8.1 How Japan targets commuters 8.8.2 Eurotel's video services 8.8.3 Recommendations 8.9 Customer targets and segmentation Chart 41: Mobile phone ownership by age Chart 42: Mobile phone ownership by gender 8.9.1 Learning from the video download market Table 30: 7700 target end-user groups Chart 44: Interest in mobile TV by age Chart 45: Interest in mobile TV by gender 8.9.2 Handset penetration is not a pre-requisite market driver 8.10 Will mobile TV cannibalise video-service revenues? Figure 19: How mobile TV fits in with network evolution and other mobile services 8.10.1 Streaming vs broadcasting Table 31: Cost per MByte for different mobile networks Table 32: Approximate download time for a ten-minute video file over different mobile networks 8.10.2 Complementary or competitive? Chart 46: Mobile video revenues, 2004 and 2009 Chapter 9. Risks and recommendations 9.1 Interoperability 9.2 Deployment risk 9.3 Third-party content 9.4 QVGA or QCIF screen formats? 9.5 ECMA script 9.6 Dedicated memory 9.7 Recommendations 9.8 Conclusion Appendix A. Useful links Appendix B. About visiongain Appendix C. Report evaluation form Companies and organisations mentioned in this report 3GPP 3G Sweden Advanced Info Service (AIS) Association of Terrestrial Digital Broadcasting BBC Broadcast Mobile Convergence (BMCO) BSkyB Casio Centre for Electrotechnical Standards (CENELEC) Cismundus CJ Media CNN Crédit Lyonnais Private Equity Czech TV Dai Nippon Printing Denso DiBcom Digita Digital Television Group DVB Project Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI) European Broadcasting Union European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations (CEPT) European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) Eurotel FCC FM Tokyo France Telecom R&D Fuji TV Fujitsu Hitachi Hutchinson IBLabs Idetic IEEE Imagination Technologies Infineon Ventures Integrated Technology Intel IMTC IP Datacast Forum ITU Japan Broadcasting Corporation J-Phone/Vodafone KK Kane Kansai Electric Power Co KDDI KDDI R&D Laboratories Keio University Kiss FM Finland Korea Broadcasting System (KBS) KISDI Korea Meteorological Administration Korea Telecom Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF) Korean Broadcasting Commission (KBC) LG Electronics Manx Telecom Maspro Denkoh Matsushita MBN MediaCorp TV Microsoft Ministry of Information and Communication (MIC) Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT) Ministry of Transport and Communications Mitsubishi Motorola Motorola Ventures MPEG-4 Industry Forum MTV Munhwa Broadcasting Corp (MBC) National Council for the Promotion of Terrestrial Digital Broadcasting NEC Nelonen NHK Science & Technical Research Laboratories Nippon TV NMS Nokia NTT Commware NTT Data NTT DoCoMo NTV O2 Ofcom ONE On-Media Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) Optus Osaka Chamber of Commerce Osaka Industry Association Panasonic Pentec & Curitel Philips Philips Research Laboratories Popwire ProTelevision Qualcomm Radio Regulatory Council Radiocommunication Technology Association Radiolinja RadioScape RAI RealNetworks RTT Oy Samsung Samsung Electronics Research Institute Sand Video Sanyo SCM Microsystems Seoul Broadcasting System (SBS) Sharp Siemens SK Telecom Snapstream Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers Sony Sony Ericsson Space Communications Corporation Space System Loral Sprint PCS TBS TDF Telecommunications Advancement Organisation of Japan Telecommunications Satellite Corporation TeliaSonera TIM T-Mobile Toshiba Toyota T-Systems TU Media TV Asahi TV Cultura Universal Studios Deutschland Virgin Mobile USA Visionik Vodafone VTT Information Technology Walt Disney World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) Yagi Antenna Yahoo! 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