Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Udhay Shankar N]

An interesting aspect of this topic. The data is from the US but this will
probably apply in differing ways elsewhere too.

Speaking for myself, I will probably buy more t-shirts once this eases
(that is, more home wear). I haven't worn a shirt in over a month.

Udhay

https://www.fastcompany.com/90492468/spending-on-clothes-plummets-50-heres-what-it-means-for-fashions-future

Spending on clothes plummets 50%. Here’s what it means for fashion’s future

By Elizabeth Segran4 minute Read

This week, the Census Bureau released consumer spending data for the month
of March. Anyone could have guessed that lockdown orders around the country
would lead to a drop in retail sales, but the extent of the decline was
staggering. Sales plummeted by 8.7%, the largest-ever decrease on record,
nearly triple the previous worst month on record in 2008. And clothing and
accessory brands took the biggest hit, dropping by an astronomical 50.5%.

This raises big questions about the future of fashion. As brands scramble
to reorganize their businesses to respond to the crisis, some are not
likely to make it, which could completely transform the landscape of the
industry in the next few months and years.

Why is this happening?

Consumers are actually spending more on essential goods: Grocery stores saw
a 26.9% increase in spending and health stores saw a 4.3% increase. This is
partly because these are the only brick-and-mortar stores that are allowed
to remain open right now, but it is also because consumers are worried
about spending money unnecessarily with a significant recession looming on
the horizon. Across the board, sectors that rely on discretionary spending
have seen declines. “There is a lot of uncertainty and anxiety about the
future,” says Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst at the research firm
eMarketer. “People are shifting their spending to focus on the things they
really need and cutting their budgets on less essential goods.”

But the coronavirus lockdown has changed our lifestyles in ways that make
buying new clothes particularly irrelevant. Since people are finding ways
to fill their time at home, hobby shops and bookstores have not been as
badly hit, with a 23.3% decline, and home furnishings and furniture stores
have seen only a 26.8% decline, perhaps because some people are spending
money on making their homes more livable.

Lipsman says that categories of apparel that are designed to be worn in
public settings, like workwear or formal wear, have been hit harder than
brands that focus on clothes we wear at home, like loungewear. And
accessories brands that focus on travel have also seen revenues tank. Away,
for instance, reported sales declines of 90%. “That’s just a really
unfortunate consequence of the travel restrictions we’re facing,” he says.

Also suffering are brands that have large fleets of brick-and-mortar
stores, according to Jordan Elkind, VP of product marketing at Amperity, a
firm that analyzes brands’ consumer data. “Digitally native brands, which
have always relied on the internet to engage customers, are weathering the
storm better than brands that still relied heavily on customers coming into
stores,” he says, based on the recent data his company has collected about
a wide range of brands. More than 250,000 stores have temporarily shuttered
since March.

Many apparel brands are currently offering big promotions and discounts to
generate revenue and clear their inventory. Elkind assumed that the people
most likely to buy clothes during these sales would be millennial
professionals, but his data tells another story. He’s found that it’s
customers over 60 that have been most likely to spend on fashion items.
“One hypothesis brands have is that these young professionals also have
young children, so they don’t have a lot of time to spend online shopping
right now,” he says. “But this is also revealing that older consumers are
more comfortable shopping online than previously thought.”

The future of fashion

So what can we expect going forward? In the short term, analysts believe
that consumer spending on fashion is going to decline even further, if
lockdown orders continue into May (or longer) and unemployment figures keep
rising. Brands that are able to sell online will lose less revenue than
their counterparts that operate largely in brick-and-mortar stores, but the
bleeding is not likely to stop in the next few months. And even being
digitally native is no guarantee of survival. Many direct-to-consumer
brands are suffering too. “I can tell you for sure that the numbers for
April are likely to be even worse,” says Lipsman. “People are going to put
their stimulus checks toward essential goods, like groceries and credit
card payments.” They won’t be buying new clothes.

In the longer term, this extended period of disruption could completely
change the fashion landscape. Coresight Research, which collects data about
the retail sector, expects 15,000 stores to close permanently as a result
of this 

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Dave Long]

> One change I am already seeing is an increase in single use plastics, for
> health reasons. I suspect this will accelerate, reversing years of
> attempted policy change.

I've also seen the opposite; in a country with limited PPE (UK?) there was some 
discussion (I don't know how serious) of whether they should go back to 
washable PPE, as some of the older medical staff had remembered.

Anyway, I now currently suspect (with results in from the AT, DE, and IS random 
studies) that we are definitely going to have to make behavioural changes in 
order to resume normal economic activity: even after we get past this wave, the 
susceptible fraction of the population will still be huge.

Social distancing (reducing the connectivity of the physical social graph) 
appears to have been remarkably effective, but I don't know of anything else 
short of widespread vaccination that would be as effective; I don't think 
hoping for a mutation to a more benign strain is a policy; and I doubt (but 
this may just be my US upbringing speaking?) many countries are prepared to put 
enough value on human life to continue their current drastic reductions through 
2021 (which is when I understand a vaccine might be ready).

Good luck, Silklisters everywhere...
-Dave

My wife received facebook news from an old classmate in ZA that (so far) 
Coronavirus has paradoxically been a net positive for their death rate: the 
number of viral deaths having been less than the plummeting murder rate since 
lockdown.  At least a cursory double-check seems to agree:
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/coronavirus-in-south-africa-everything-we-know-about-covid-19-in-sa-2020-3

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Udhay Shankar N]

One change I am already seeing is an increase in single use plastics, for
health reasons. I suspect this will accelerate, reversing years of
attempted policy change.

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Ingrid Srinath]

One hoped this might change towards greater equity, and for some it has:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/521919/time-spent-housework-countries/

Instead, we’re seeing this:

http://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200326-coronavirus-domestic-violence-gender-perspectives



Ingrid Srinath

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[José María Mateos]

On Sun, Mar 08, 2020 at 12:41:45PM -0400, José María Mateos wrote:
In my case the reaction has been mixed. Day to day hasn't changed much. 
I try not to hold on to the rail in the metro as much as before, and 
anyway I was always washing my hands when getting to whatever place I 
was getting to (home, work, a restaurante, etc). That daily routine has 
been kept as usual.


Well, three weeks have passed since my e-mail. Things have changed fast:

- Working from home, so no more subway for me.

- No eating out, take-away food or anything else. A lot of restaurants 
in Montreal are closed anyway.


- Just getting out of the house twice a week more or less to buy 
groceries, and we wipe all plastic stuff with disinfectant wipes as soon 
as we get home. Some people say that's too much, but we don't want to 
run the risk.


In the meantime, public statements have changed slowly but steadily from 
"a Montreal lockdown is not on the table" to a place where I can 
actually see it happening next week. Let's see what happens.


Stay safe our there.

--
José María (Chema) Mateos || https://rinzewind.org

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Alaric Snell-Pym]

TV shows where people GO OUTDOORS and NEAR OTHER PEOPLE suddenly look...
weird.

On the other hand, marble sports is suddenly surging in popularity:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYJdpnjuSWVOLgGT9fIzL0g

-- 
Alaric Snell-Pym   (M7KIT)
http://www.snell-pym.org.uk/alaric/



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Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Udhay Shankar N]

On this topic, the below article is thought provoking. Excessively
US-centric, but still thought provoking.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

Udhay

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Udhay Shankar N]

One more: greeting people. I've had versions of this discussion with a few
members of this list over the years, but it was (then) an issue of
etiquette, rather than epidemiology. The world is different now.

To hug or not to hug?  In this context, I interact with three kinds of
friends, First, where hugging is just a polite hello. Second, where it is
reserved for close friends. Third, where it is mildly or not-so-mildly
discouraged.

That was then. Now, even before the lockdown, my last F2F meeting was a
couple of weeks ago - and we gave each other knowing grins and waved.

Udhay

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Priyanka Sachar]

And some may never go back to keeping a maid or cook etc .. After a month
of doing household work, many may feel that they don't really need to
depend that much on domestic help, especially with the right gadgets 

On Tue 24 Mar, 2020, 10:05 AM Kavita ATD, 
wrote:

> That is an obvious one ...and one that is likely to stay at about 30%
> uptick. (i wrote this because it sounded right, no logic)
>
> Folks who manage to effectively work from home, but who were resisting it
> so far, may never go back to offices permanently.
>
> Same with moviegoers, they finally will discover the joys of Netflix and
> cheap popcorn.
>
> and if this continues, it is will be habit-forming, just my 2 cents.
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 9:54 AM Udhay Shankar N  wrote:
>
> > Another change I noticed - broadband usage over the past couple of
> weeks. I
> > am currently at ~10 GB/day where it used to be ~7 GB/day for the
> household.
> >
> > What has changed: multiple videoconference calls/day, as well as an
> > increase in the amount of streamed entertainment consumed.
> >
> > Udhay
> >
>
>
> --
>
> *Kavita Jhunjhunwala*
> *Digital Lead & Founder*
> *Avocado Tree Digital Pte Ltd *
> *www.avocadotreedigital.com  *
>
>
> Facebook  LinkedIn
> 
>
>
> *SG: +65 8499 7403 *
> *IND:+91 99868 77769 *
>

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Alaric Snell-Pym]

On 24/03/2020 04:34, Kavita ATD wrote:
> That is an obvious one ...and one that is likely to stay at about 30%
> uptick. (i wrote this because it sounded right, no logic)
> 
> Folks who manage to effectively work from home, but who were resisting it
> so far, may never go back to offices permanently.
> 

Yeah, I've long felt that fear of change is a big reason companies have
resisted remote working. But with that blown out of the water, the
reduced cost in running a building (for employers) and the delights of
not commuting (for employees) might not be things they want to give up
again!

(I work from home, have done so for ages, and prefer it - but I know
it's not everyone's cup of tea)

-- 
Alaric Snell-Pym   (M7KIT)
http://www.snell-pym.org.uk/alaric/



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Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Alaric Snell-Pym]

On 24/03/2020 04:34, Kavita ATD wrote:
> That is an obvious one ...and one that is likely to stay at about 30%
> uptick. (i wrote this because it sounded right, no logic)
> 
> Folks who manage to effectively work from home, but who were resisting it
> so far, may never go back to offices permanently.
> 

Yeah, I've long felt that fear of change is a big reason companies have
resisted remote working. But with that blown out of the water, the
reduced cost in running a building (for employers) and the delights of
not commuting (for employees) might not be things they want to give up
again!

(I work from home, have done so for ages, and prefer it - but I know
it's not everyone's cup of tea)

-- 
Alaric Snell-Pym   (M7KIT)
http://www.snell-pym.org.uk/alaric/



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Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Kavita ATD]

That is an obvious one ...and one that is likely to stay at about 30%
uptick. (i wrote this because it sounded right, no logic)

Folks who manage to effectively work from home, but who were resisting it
so far, may never go back to offices permanently.

Same with moviegoers, they finally will discover the joys of Netflix and
cheap popcorn.

and if this continues, it is will be habit-forming, just my 2 cents.





On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 9:54 AM Udhay Shankar N  wrote:

> Another change I noticed - broadband usage over the past couple of weeks. I
> am currently at ~10 GB/day where it used to be ~7 GB/day for the household.
>
> What has changed: multiple videoconference calls/day, as well as an
> increase in the amount of streamed entertainment consumed.
>
> Udhay
>


-- 

*Kavita Jhunjhunwala*
*Digital Lead & Founder*
*Avocado Tree Digital Pte Ltd *
*www.avocadotreedigital.com  *


Facebook  LinkedIn



*SG: +65 8499 7403 *
*IND:+91 99868 77769 *

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Udhay Shankar N]

Another change I noticed - broadband usage over the past couple of weeks. I
am currently at ~10 GB/day where it used to be ~7 GB/day for the household.

What has changed: multiple videoconference calls/day, as well as an
increase in the amount of streamed entertainment consumed.

Udhay

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Bruce A. Metcalf]

On 3/9/20 1:30 AM, Peter Griffin wrote:


  What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about the
coronavirus?


I may have an unusual perspective on this question, as I'm presently 
aboard a cruise ship on a 'round-the-world cruise. (But not one that's 
been stuck offshore -- yet.)


So far, the ship has taken care of most things for me. The segment 
between Sydney and Singapore was changed to end in Perth instead. 
Because of national bans, we'll be skipping stops in Colombo and all of 
our planned ports in Italy. It's not yet clear if I'll be able to get 
into India as I promised some of you. (More when I'm sure.)


So far, our ship has been clear of the virus, and hasn't stopped in any 
(known) infected ports. We also declined to board a few passengers who 
had just come from China. In fact, so many have canceled because of the 
lost destination ports that the ship's now only about half full.


Yes, washing hands, fist-bumping instead of handshakes, and enough hand 
sanitizer to dry up a good sized tropical rainforest, but nothing out of 
the ordinary.


This will certainly change once someone on the ship develops symptoms. 
I've been aboard cruise ships that had norovirus, and there's a whole 
suite of added precautions required by the US' Centers for Disease 
Control. Mostly shrink-wrapping the buffet.




Stuff that you would recommend others do too. For instance, washing hands
more, using hand sanitizers, avoiding crowds, not going to events,
canceling travel.


My next cruise is due to include land travel in Spain, France, and 
England. The cruise line has offered a full credit toward a new cruise 
if I cancel as little as 30 days from sailing. Should one of those 
countries go the way of Italy, or if my wife or I come down with a case, 
we'll be invoking this.


Yes, washing hands helps. Yes, shaking hands is counter-indicated. 
Avoiding crowds is always a good plan to my mind. And as we've seen by 
the recent cancellation of SXSW, fans at soccer games, and even movie 
premiers, a lot of that work will be done for us.


Situational awareness is, I think, the key most of the time. Just as you 
wouldn't visit an area with a hot shooting war, you'd avoid areas with 
widespread diseases for which no vaccine is available, especially if 
very young, old, or have compromised immune function.


I don't think it's time to panic. Careful, yes. But I wouldn't suggest a 
blanket ban on travel or events. Others may be more nervous, and should 
stay home if that's what's needed to remain calm.


Good luck to you all.

Cheers,
/ Bruce /

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Ingrid Srinath]

> On 8 Mar 2020, at 18:01, Peter Griffin  wrote:
> 
>  What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about the
> coronavirus?
> Stuff that you would recommend others do too. For instance, washing hands
> more, using hand sanitsers, avoiding crowds, not going to events,
> cancelling travel.

Am doing / have done all of the above. Find myself acutely conscious of just 
how many different surfaces I make contact with each day. 

Ingrid

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[José María Mateos]

On Mon, Mar 09, 2020 at 07:18:11AM +0530, Udhay Shankar N wrote:

My use of e-commerce is like a game for me, trying to see what is the
lowest price I can get for something (tip: you can ALWAYS get it cheaper if
you just put it on a watchlist for a month and have price data). To this
end, I've been observing hand sanitizer get sold out or unavailable at all
outlets. This made me a little more enthusiastic than I otherwise would
have been and I have now ordered more of this product than I can feasibly
use.


Not related to the main topic of the threads, but probably relevant: 
I've seen that several online vendors will nudge you with a discount if 
you just put some items in your basket but don't finish the order for a 
few days. I think it's a handy detail to take into account when ordering 
non-urgent stuff from small-ish vendors (definitely not Amazon, I've 
never seen them do that, and at this point I try not to buy there 
anyway).


Cheers,

--
José María (Chema) Mateos || https://rinzewind.org/

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Suresh Ramasubramanian]

The school boards end in April. Going to some out of the way place with fewer 
crowds than the typical big city might actually be a reasonable idea.

On 09/03/20, 7:18 AM, "silklist on behalf of Udhay Shankar N" 
 wrote:

Also: I think the virus situation, combined with the pressure of school
boards, is going to nix any travel this summer.

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Udhay Shankar N]

On Sun, Mar 8, 2020 at 6:01 PM Peter Griffin 
wrote:

 What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about the
> coronavirus?
>

I've started washing hands more, and trying to institute a protocol where
anyone who enters my home has to wash hands first. I now have an awareness
(which I never thought about before) just how many of my
unthinking/involuntary mannerisms involve touching my nose or chin.

My use of e-commerce is like a game for me, trying to see what is the
lowest price I can get for something (tip: you can ALWAYS get it cheaper if
you just put it on a watchlist for a month and have price data). To this
end, I've been observing hand sanitizer get sold out or unavailable at all
outlets. This made me a little more enthusiastic than I otherwise would
have been and I have now ordered more of this product than I can feasibly
use.

Also: I think the virus situation, combined with the pressure of school
boards, is going to nix any travel this summer.

Udhay

-- 

((Udhay Shankar N)) ((udhay @ pobox.com)) ((www.digeratus.com))

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Radhika, Y.]

José,

That is interesting. I am in Zaragoza at the University until June. The
main concern here is potential infection from Italian and Chinese students
who travel back and forth.

Hope you get to Spain in June.
Saludos.
Radhika

El dom., 8 mar. 2020 5:42 p. m., José María Mateos 
escribió:

> On Sun, Mar 08, 2020 at 06:00:41PM +0530, Peter Griffin wrote:
> > What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about
> the
> >coronavirus?
> >Stuff that you would recommend others do too. For instance, washing hands
> >more, using hand sanitsers, avoiding crowds, not going to events,
> >cancelling travel.
>
> In my case the reaction has been mixed. Day to day hasn't changed much.
> I try not to hold on to the rail in the metro as much as before, and
> anyway I was always washing my hands when getting to whatever place I
> was getting to (home, work, a restaurante, etc). That daily routine has
> been kept as usual.
>
> On the travel side, I live in Montreal, where COVID-19 has not still
> exploded (emphasis in *still*), but would like to travel to Spain to
> visit my family in June. So far, I am not buying my tickets and are
> waiting to see how events unfold. Spain has a daily increase of 20 % in
> the number of detected cases right now (with current numbers around 600
> sick, 17 dead), and there is a chance flights might get cancelled. Also,
> if Spain gets into the list of countries Canada recommends not to visit,
> I wouldn't be able to go to Spain and return to work immediately, I'd
> have to "self isolate". Remote work might be an option in that case,
> though.
>
> Cheers,
>
> --
> José María (Chema) Mateos || https://rinzewind.org/
>
>

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[José María Mateos]

On Sun, Mar 08, 2020 at 06:00:41PM +0530, Peter Griffin wrote:

What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about the
coronavirus?
Stuff that you would recommend others do too. For instance, washing hands
more, using hand sanitsers, avoiding crowds, not going to events,
cancelling travel.


In my case the reaction has been mixed. Day to day hasn't changed much. 
I try not to hold on to the rail in the metro as much as before, and 
anyway I was always washing my hands when getting to whatever place I 
was getting to (home, work, a restaurante, etc). That daily routine has 
been kept as usual.


On the travel side, I live in Montreal, where COVID-19 has not still 
exploded (emphasis in *still*), but would like to travel to Spain to 
visit my family in June. So far, I am not buying my tickets and are 
waiting to see how events unfold. Spain has a daily increase of 20 % in 
the number of detected cases right now (with current numbers around 600 
sick, 17 dead), and there is a chance flights might get cancelled. Also, 
if Spain gets into the list of countries Canada recommends not to visit, 
I wouldn't be able to go to Spain and return to work immediately, I'd 
have to "self isolate". Remote work might be an option in that case, 
though.


Cheers,

--
José María (Chema) Mateos || https://rinzewind.org/

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Shyam Sunder]

I would love to cut over to the Indian "Namaste"/"Namaskaram"/"Namaskara" 
rather than shake hands, which is unhygienic for many reasons. But I am still 
trying to figure out how to do it without alienating someone who expects a 
handshake or even reaches out their hand. Any ideas on how to make the shift in 
business settings? 

I guess the alternative is to wash hands a lot more, which I now do, and for 
15-20 seconds each time...

Warm regards, Shyam

On 08/03/20, 6:01 PM, "silklist on behalf of Peter Griffin" 
 wrote:

 What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about the
coronavirus?
Stuff that you would recommend others do too. For instance, washing hands
more, using hand sanitsers, avoiding crowds, not going to events,
cancelling travel.

Re: [silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Nima Srinivasan]

That's a great question.

At a personal level:
- avoid touching surfaces
-wash hands after I come from outside but not as often as recommended
-watched the WHO debrief, never done that before
-consciously less handshaking
-used sanitizer at cultfit, never done that before

Externally, I've been amazed that Mecca shut down, some churches removing
holy water, Amritanandamayi's ashram disallowing the patented embrace and
the conferences and the possible Olympics shut down. Maybe some of these
happened before but I don't recall reading any of it. Also the extent of
awareness in schools and even lower class awareness,ask buying etc is new
(may be a metro story). My brother received an email from Oberoi Udaipur
telling him two Italians tested Positive in feb and 83 staff have since
been voluntarily quarantined and he should make the choice to stay or not.
They also listed their screening process now for guests and that seemed
intense.

Nima

On Sun, Mar 8, 2020, 6:01 PM Peter Griffin  wrote:

>  What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about the
> coronavirus?
> Stuff that you would recommend others do too. For instance, washing hands
> more, using hand sanitsers, avoiding crowds, not going to events,
> cancelling travel.
>

[silk] Coronavirus and behaviour change

[Peter Griffin]

 What behaviours (if any) have you changed because you're worried about the
coronavirus?
Stuff that you would recommend others do too. For instance, washing hands
more, using hand sanitsers, avoiding crowds, not going to events,
cancelling travel.