[sniffer] Re: IPv6

2011-03-11 Thread Bonno Bloksma
Hi,

I remember reading somewhere research was being done about ipv6 block lists
using the fact that the same /64 net would probably be the same machine or
very near it. Prety much what we now Block when we list an ipv4 NATted
gateway to a private network which houses an infected PC.

Unfortunately I cannot find the reference to that article anymore, I thought
I had it bookmarked. :-(

Yours sincerely,
Bonno Bloksma
senior systeembeheerder

tio 
university of applied sciences for hospitality and tourism
julianalaan 9 / 7553 ab hengelo 
netherlands
t +31-74-255 06 10 / f +31-74-255 06 11 
b.blok...@tio.nl  / www.tio.nl 


-Oorspronkelijk bericht-
Van: Message Sniffer Community [mailto:sniffer@sortmonster.com] Namens
Peer-to-Peer (Support)
Verzonden: vrijdag 11 maart 2011 14:25
Aan: Message Sniffer Community
Onderwerp: [sniffer] IPv6


Hi everyone,

I've been thinking about the potential risk of IPv6 will have on filtering
spam.  I suspect RBL's (real time blacklists) may become obsolete once IPv6
arrives.?.

From what I've learned, IPv6 has 340 undecillion (1 followed by 36 zeros)
IP
addresses.  And devices can refresh every 24 hours.  IPv4 only has 4.3
billion IP addresses.


Pete: Grab a cup of coffee.  The botNet's are coming...



--Paul




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[sniffer] Re: IPv6

2011-03-11 Thread Pete McNeil

On 3/11/2011 9:44 AM, Bonno Bloksma wrote:

Hi,

I remember reading somewhere research was being done about ipv6 block lists
using the fact that the same /64 net would probably be the same machine or
very near it. Prety much what we now Block when we list an ipv4 NATted
gateway to a private network which houses an infected PC.



I had some heated conversations about this at HostingCon in Texas last 
year. The fellow was pushing IPv6 preparedness and had not considered 
some of the issues I raised about it.


As I see it the real trouble is going to show up where IPv6 and 
virtualization meet. Consider that to keep costs and manageability 
reasonable a /64 (or some largeish sub block) will be allocated to a 
chunk of hardware hosting virtualized machines. Consider also that 
virtualization is being highly optimized. Therefore an attacker (spammer 
etc) will be able to map themselves a virtually inexhaustible supply of 
IP addresses and hosts and move them around at will.


Even if they violate TOS on a legitimate system they will be able to do 
it for such a short period of time with such a small data footprint that 
they will be able to remain undetected for long periods-- perhaps even 
indefinitely. By the time anybody looks to see what is going on the 
offending VPS will long since have been destroyed and it's cousin will 
be living in a completely different data-center picking up where it left 
off.


The good news is that this behavior is still dramatically different than 
that of legitimate senders so it leaves a statistically important footprint.


What might be predicted from this? Off the top of my head I think maybe 
the following...


* Attacks from anonymously controlled virtual bots will rise 
dramatically and will be very difficult to defend. Consider that we 
currently have sufficient RAM available to completely bitmap every IP4 
address if we choose to do so -- and that could be done at wire speed on 
even the fastest routers (Still can't get any love for the concept, but 
it's been possible for a long while now). This will not be possible with 
large scale IPv6 deployment.


* Black-listing will become softer and much more difficult. Due to the 
convergence of virtualization and IPv6 deployment, IPs of legitimate 
systems will necessarily merge with the IPs of illegitimate systems. 
Only specific, long-lived IPs from legitimate systems will be worth 
tracking.


* Legitimate systems that do bulk mailing will make increasing use of 
virtualization to keep costs down -- standing up large bot-nets of their 
own to deliver a campaign and then evaporating those bot-nets when 
delivery is complete. This will make such systems virtually 
indistinguishable from illegitimate senders since the IP blocks will 
have significant overlap and the usage statistics will be very similar.


* White-listing mechanisms will become more important.

* Content analysis will become more important. SNF is good at that :-)

* Systems that delay delivery of messages from unknown and untrusted 
systems will be more important -- especially those that allow for 
delivery after re-scanning content rather than conventional 
gray-listing. Conventional gray-listing mechanisms will become more 
difficult to use because all kinds of legitimate bulk mailing systems 
simply will not be there to re-send undelivered messages due to the 
systems being shut-down after the first volley in order to contain 
costs. I expect some significant increases in the complexity of such 
systems to compensate for this.


* On the way to IPv6 there will be a lot of fragmentation and confusion 
of all types. For a long time to come some folks will be unable to 
deploy IPv6. Others will be unavoidably required to do so. Bridges 
between these networks will be necessary, difficult to regulate, and 
unpredictable. Best practices for IPv6 and mixed networks will be 
difficult to define and constantly evolving -- this churn in general 
will slow adoption and increase fragmentation.


What other things might we expect?

Anybody think one or more of these predictions are unrealistic? If so, 
why? After all, it's just conjecture at this point ;-)


In any case, SNF is evolving to become ever more intelligent and 
adaptive. We will concentrate not only on more sophisticated content 
analysis, but also behavioral analysis and an increasingly cognitive 
approach to blending data from all of these subsystems and responding in 
realtime.


_M

--
Pete McNeil
Chief Scientist
ARM Research Labs, LLC
www.armresearch.com
866-770-1044
x7010


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