-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Ambuja Cement: 205-197 Might Be A Very Good Buying Zone
Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2015 12:37:48 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Govt's Smart City & Smart Village Theme And Infra Push May Help*
*CMP: 207**
**
**Buy: 205-197;**
**
**TGT1: 230-260 (15-60 days)**
**
**TGT2: 285-315 (6-12M)**
**
**TSL<189*
*
*Note: Consecutive closing below 189 for any reason, it may fall to
173-145-135 zone, where it can be again accumulated for better
investment buying average.
Key Triggers:
* Increase in cement prices and demand, specially in North/West (NW)
India, where Ambuja Cement has strong presence.
* Many more large infra projects like roads, metros, ports, airports
and dedicated freight corridors are likely to come up in next few
years in this NW region.
* In the key NW market, Ambuja cement was able to increase prices
substantially in the last few months, while raw material prices has
come down due to depressed prices in commodities. This should help
the company in margin expansion and improved bottom line.
* We may also see merger of AC-Holcim-Lafrage into one single entity
in the coming days, which will ensure better price discovery & other
operational synergies amid less competition in India.
* Post monsoon season, we may see much better demand recovery.
Thus looking ahead, decreasing capacity additions and improved demand
due to expected overall economic/infrastructure boom by FY-16 onward,
will be beneficial for all the cement companies and Ambuja Cement may be
one of them.
*As par BG metrics:**
**
**Current median valuation of Ambuja Cement may be around: 220**
**
**Projected fair valuations might be around: 250-290-330 (FY:16-18)*
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LV SV MV
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
AMBUJACEM 7.16 65.11 30 221.80 211.92 216.86 229.02 209.08
AMBUJACEM 9.5 71.95 30 255.48 244.11 249.79 229.02 209.08
AMBUJACEM 12.75 79.55 30 295.97 282.80 289.38 229.02 209.08
AMBUJACEM 16.35 88.95 30 335.16 320.24 327.70 229.02 209.08
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-npEPRJcZ3kE/VgdsWa2e_eI/AAAAAAAAEGA/YG1KD1710ms/s1600/Ambuja-24-09-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-roFAzWjGqy8/VgdsYFqnISI/AAAAAAAAEGI/E7HX7wilnAA/s1600/Ambuja-Fibb-24-09-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QXxWLeP8u4g/Vgdsar40S5I/AAAAAAAAEGQ/35ADu32ht0A/s1600/Ambuja-WK-24-09-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/--eve0EgNxzI/Vgdsc0TS7CI/AAAAAAAAEGY/raEntabKzOI/s1600/Ambuja-PATTERN-24-09-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iSJnLwKmCgc/VgdsfStzmEI/AAAAAAAAEGg/XGTc8Ft9ksc/s1600/Ambuja-TL-24-09-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V3RkzNHPoTs/VgdstmKL_3I/AAAAAAAAEGw/yvNcstw33Lo/s1600/Ambuja-tl-lt-24-09-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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