-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Godrej Prop : Sustain Above 336-350, Can Scale Up To 425-550
In Next Two Years
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 2015 09:53:06 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Improved sentiment in commercial as well as residential real estate
space can help *
*CMP: 320*
*Suggested buying zone: Either above 336 or on dips around 310-300*
*TGT: 360-390-425 (1-12M)*
*TGT: 550 (24M)*
*TSL<294*
*Note: Consecutive closing below 294 for any reason, the scrip may fall
up to 270-225, where it can be again accumulated for better buying
average (investment purpose).*
*Some key points & rationale:*
**
Godrej Prop (GP) is in the limelight for the last few months for its BKC
(Bandra Kurla Complex-Mumbai) commercial project monetisation talks.
While the deal (Rs.1480 cr and the buyer is Abott India) was officially
announced few days ago, it was in works for the last few months.
This particular deal is very significant in the sense that it will
almost halve the consolidated balance sheet debt of GP by FY-17.
The deal pricing is also a positive surprise and indicates rising office
rent and improved demand-supply dynamics in commercial properties thanks
to global liquidity and "Made In India" or "Make India" initiative.
In the last one year, as par various reports, demand for commercial
property (office space) has grown significantly higher by around 70%
(H2FY15), specially from MNC IT, Pharma and various start-ups companies
in prime & growing places in various key metro cities.
Looking forward, with expected overall economic recovery in India aided
by lower funding cost, better operating leverages and depressed
commodity prices, we can see improved sentiment among corporates and
sequentially higher demand for commercial spaces.
The "smart city & smart village (out side main city area)" theme along
with infra push and forthcoming 7-th pay commission liquidity can
translate higher demand for residential projects also.
Apart from that, RBI's commitment of accommodative policy (lower
interest rate environment) will help for entire real estate sector in
the days ahead.
*As par BG metrics:*
*Current median valuation of GP may be around: 300*
*Projected fair valuations might be around: 340-425-475 (FY:16-18) *
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LV SV MV
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
GODREJPROP 10.04 92.57 30 285.61 308.39 297.00 270.83 315.76
GODREJPROP 12.95 101.5 30 324.37 350.25 337.31 270.83 315.76
GODREJPROP 20.45 111.45 30 407.62 440.13 423.88 270.83 315.76
GODREJPROP 25.55 121.75 30 455.62 491.97 473.79 270.83 315.76
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QQCgB4yINbY/VhCkmOfY2hI/AAAAAAAAELI/BEEijijhjz8/s1600/GP-01-10-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-op3tm14bzmg/VhCknoAnvlI/AAAAAAAAELQ/F6ZgZuV54Q0/s1600/GP-FIBB-01-10-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GkjU6vsrjEU/VhCkploYwuI/AAAAAAAAELY/4hn_Eem83go/s1600/GP-WK-01-10-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KLdR8m2b-cU/VhCkrot0xYI/AAAAAAAAELg/t71yETRtUiE/s1600/GP-TL-01-10-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r4V7xtIX930/VhCkvOtvdGI/AAAAAAAAELo/r06vztQCLsk/s1600/GP-PATTERN-01-10-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4Tw5V6fVEbk/VhCkwmMZSRI/AAAAAAAAELw/gsIt4xdQ24E/s1600/GP-TL-LT-01-10-2015.png>
-- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified
--
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