-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: ICICI Bk: Ahead Of Q1 Result---TGT 370 Only Abv 325, Otherwise
May Fall To 280-265
Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015 09:09:13 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Technically, ICICI (CMP: 301), has to sustain over 306 for an immediate
target of 312-317 & 321-325-331. In the near term, only consecutive
closing above 325-331 zone, it may target 340-344-351-356-362-370 zone
and sustaining above that, 395-410-435 might be the target in mid to
long term under bullish case scenario.
On the downside, sustaining below 299, ICICI may fall to 293-288-284-279
area in the immediate to short term. Consecutive closing below 279, it
could further fall to 265 and sustaining below that, 254-250-236-233 &
206-199-188 might be the target in worst bear case scenario.
In brief, ICICI Bk might be in the broad range of 265-280-325*-340-370
in the near term.
Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)
SL</>3 FROM SLR
ICICI CMP 301
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR
Strong > 306 312-317 321-325* 331-340* 344-351 356-362 370-395
410-435 <299
Weak < 299 293-288 284-279* 265* 254-250 236-233 206-199
188-175 >306
ICICI scrip was under pressure for the last few days & broke key support
level of 312 amid concern over debt exposoure (Rs.13000 cr approx) to
bewildered JP group as CARE downgrades its (JP) debt profile. Also SBI &
IDBI has considerable exposoure to this group for around Rs.8000 & 6500 Cr.
Some good news is that, most of these debt exposoure of JP Gr (debt
nearly Rs.1 lk cr!! including JP power) has been backed by hard
assets/some co-laterals unlike King Fisher. Thus, there may be some
cash-flow mismatch, ultimate write downs might be lower. Still there
will be great concern by the market for this debt laden JP & certain
other over leveraged groups as the whole banking industry is reeling
(specially PSBS) under huge stressed assets of over Rs.4 lakh cr and
going ahead, liquidity might be a concern, when real industrial credit
demand expected to take off in H2FY16.
As par BG metrics, current median valuation of ICICI Bk may be around
345 and projected fair valuations might be around 370-405-450 under the
current market parameters (FY:16-18).
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN
VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA
ICICIBANK 19.25 126.19 19.77 345.69 345.09 345.39 314 312.92
ICICIBANK 22.12 138.2 19.77 370.56 369.92 370.24 314 312.92
ICICIBANK 26.34 151.35 19.77 404.37 403.67 404.02 314 312.92
ICICIBANK 31.35 165.75 19.77 441.15 440.39 440.77 314 312.9
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WAPas4dqLV8/VbWmBTQWsGI/AAAAAAAADiA/1klu1V4Sytw/s1600/ICICI-24-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xizHR9nTPU4/VbWmEwJ885I/AAAAAAAADiI/C-9MbCl9wgs/s1600/ICICI-FIBB-24-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vVLMIArlL1I/VbWmG4HUyGI/AAAAAAAADiQ/3PhPeSJJ6CA/s1600/ICICI-WK-24-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MIXEln7oQpU/VbWmIuL9s5I/AAAAAAAADiY/t8B4Xhh-XC8/s1600/ICICI-TL-24-07-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-v2Y7ZL-Sr7w/VbWmKXSUJtI/AAAAAAAADig/U-_X_n9YR8Y/s1600/ICICI-PATTERN-24-07-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tzzos0ETvnE/VbWmNkuRkSI/AAAAAAAADio/l-cMv2_hvOM/s1600/ICICI-TL-LT-24-07-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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