-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: IRB Infra : Above 256-262 Could Fly To 290-315---Expected
Infra & Mega Road Projects Push By Govt May Help
Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015 09:16:20 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
_*Technical Analysis:*_
IRB (CMP: 249) has immediate support of around 242-238 & 233-226 zone.
Sustain below 226, it may further fall to 220-210 area and consecutive
closing below that, it could crash to 205-197-184 & 160 territory in the
worst bear case scenario.
On the upside, sustaining above 242, immediate target may be 256 and
consecutive closing above that 270-276 might be the target in short
term, In the mid term term, only sustaining above 276, IRB may scale up
to 290-300-315 area and consecutive closing above that 370 might be the
target in the long term under bull case scenario (FY:16-18).
_*Technical Trading Levels (Positional):*_
SL</>2 FROM SLR
IRB CMP 249
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR
Strong > 238 242* 256-262* 270 276 290 300
315 <233
Weak < 233 226 220 210* 205 197 184 160
>238
_*Stock Analysis & Some Useful Inputs:*_
Yesterday IRB gave a technical break out (>242) amid some positive news
flow that one of its subsidiary has raised debt of Rs.1400 cr to execute
a mega road project awarded by NHAI (total cost of the project is around
Rs.2290 cr as of now). The concession period for the project is 27 years.
Q4FY15 consolidated result/EPS of IRB was also above street estimates
and looking ahead, Govt's massive push for infrastructure, mega road
projects (@10000 km in the current FY), "Smart City" theme may revive
this sector by H2FY16 (as widely expected).
Road, being the vital infra life line in "Modinomics & Shinning India",
we may see actual progress of work in various stalled projects and also
significant FDI in this sector in the coming days. Presently, our
respected road minister (who is dedicated his life to mega high way
projects) has assured the PMO to construct high ways @17-18 km/day and
projected target is above 20 km/day by FY:16-17.
Certainly, under this circumstances, IRB may be one of the beneficiary
of the expected push for mega road projects along with some other
competitors like L&T.
But, there are some serious risks in IRB, as CBI is investigating its
Chairman in a 2012 case of murder of a RTI activist (who had exposed
irregularities involving forged documents in a township project by IRB).
This is as par old report & need to be verified further about the status
of the case as of now.
_*Techno Funda Valuation As Par BG Metrics (Modified):*_
Current Median Valuation: 300
Projected Fair Valuation: 330-350-385 (FY:16-18)
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN
VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA
IRB 15.45 117.31 24.6 298.54 302.84 300.69 234.5 241.3
IRB 18.62 129.05 24.6 327.74 332.46 330.10 234.5 241.3
IRB 20.74 142.15 24.6 345.89 350.87 348.38 234.5 241.3
IRB 25.1 156.55 24.6 380.52 386.00 383.26 234.5 241.3
_*Technical Charts:*_
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rvyR4rsXlJ0/VbrsXx8zAlI/AAAAAAAADnA/bNZlK_7olXA/s1600/IRB-30-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Lwxs0kiL1OU/VbrsbbeqzlI/AAAAAAAADnI/ZjSXL-rAqJo/s1600/IRB-FIBB-30-07-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wMstwwqiZtQ/VbrsdLCB3DI/AAAAAAAADnQ/o54Et-48KdI/s1600/IRB-WK-30-07-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xr6ED4Zwf-U/VbrsenyCRtI/AAAAAAAADnY/fgKRNz-ttQE/s1600/IRB-TL-30-07-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MopxB0DVPKA/VbrsgesYtSI/AAAAAAAADng/O-Ey2rjlCMA/s1600/IRB-PATTERN-30-07-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t-_z4Dj7OWM/VbrskFoFyrI/AAAAAAAADno/ZX-ROV6O-4A/s1600/IRB-TL-LT-30-07-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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