-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Indusind Bank: 830-820 Might Be Very Good Buying Zone for
911-995 In The Near Term--Strong Earnings Could Help Despite EQ Dilution
For QIP
Date: Sat, 29 Aug 2015 09:50:37 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
_*Technical Analysis:*_
CMP:848
For Investment Purpose:
Buy>830: TGT: 911-995-1025 (1-6M) & 1150 (12M); Trading SL<820
Note: Sustain below 820, IIB might fall to 784 zone, where fresh buying
can be initiated again for good average.
_*Trading Levels (Positional):*_
For Trading Purpose:
SL</>5 FROM SLR
Indusind CMP 848
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR
Strong > 830
850 872 890 911* 940 972 995 <820
Weak < 820
802 784* 778-40 726 715 699 650 >830
_*Rationale*_
IIB corrected for the last few days by almost 16% from its recent
cyclical high against overall market correction of around 12%. Apart
from general market meltdown, other reasons may be IIB's intention of
acquiring loan portfolio of RBS (around Rs.6000 cr) and recent QIP issue
of similar amount (Rs.5081 cr @857.20 par share).
The other reason may be grant of payment bank license by RBI to certain
corporate groups, which might pose some competition to the private
banking space. But having said that, a small payment bank can not be the
true replacement of a full fledged bank in its true sense.
The QIP proceeds will help the bank to support future growth and to
maintain capital adequacy ratio. But, six cr new share issued in QIP
mode & to promoters on preferential basis, which may dilute net EPS by
around 10% unless supported by sequentially higher income. The bank is
actively scrutinizing the loan portfolio of RBS to take a final call
shortly.
IIB also recently acquired diamond & jewelry financing business of RBS
and is quite confident of growth in retail financing and CV business
along with other fees income (3-rd party product sale).
The bank is also proving digital platform very rapidly in order to
enhance the net banking & POS experience.
Going ahead, with expected growth in retail/SME loan book along with
sequentially higher CV & corporate loan demand and relatively stable
NPA, a strong bank like IIB might be a bright spot in the private
banking space.
_*Valuation As Par BG Metrics:(Approx)*_
As par current market scenario, median valuation of IIB : *805*
Projected fair valuation: *915-1025-1170 (FY:16-18)*
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LV SV MV
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
INDUSINDBK 32.04 173.97 23 783.78 814.17 798.97 833.61 899.52
INDUSINDBK 41.5 229.25 23 892.01 926.60 909.31 833.61 899.52
INDUSINDBK 52.31 338.15 23 1001.47 1040.31 1020.89
833.61 899.52
INDUSINDBK 68.15 498.75 23 1143.08 1187.41 1165.25
833.61 899.52
_*Technical Charts:*_
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qbdW5puJp40/VeEv7-et5SI/AAAAAAAAD4M/TSKTEfkoZ-o/s1600/IIB-28-08-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WXzf9-tv_pM/VeEv9muUgFI/AAAAAAAAD4U/4BRDbwIlLLs/s1600/IIB-FIBB-28-08-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OR2i3emmX-I/VeEv_XZwPwI/AAAAAAAAD4c/1wjk2pvZ6jE/s1600/IIB-WK-28-08-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9-bjFT3tBa0/VeEwBapzg9I/AAAAAAAAD4k/7ZcgG-v_O3M/s1600/IIB-PATTERN-28-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y_YyZVPj2is/VeEwDOQFSNI/AAAAAAAAD4s/ttgewslKvRw/s1600/IIB-TL-28-08-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YW9v9IzMVAY/VeEwGd4YZQI/AAAAAAAAD40/GLBRKKpKVRc/s1600/IIB-TL-LT-28-08-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
--
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