-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty Fut(Sep):7540 Zone Is Important And Sustaining Below
That It May Find Base Around 7315-7180 For The Time Being; Dovish Fed &
RBI Rate Cut/GST Hope May Support
Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2015 07:33:36 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
_*Trading Levels (Positional):*_
SGX NF: 7600 (LTP)
NSE NF: 7662 (LTP)
Gap Up/Dw (Indicative)
SGX NIFTY 7600 -62
NF-SEP LTP 7662
SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR
Intraday Swing Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 7530 7565-98 7632-65 7700-20*
7750-71 7800-25 <7510
Weak < 7510 7475-45 7412-390 7350-15*
7290-50 7200-180 >7530
FOR Conservative Positional Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 7530 7598 7665 7720* 7771 7825-75
<7510
Weak < 7510 7445 7390 7315* 7250 7180-6985
>7510
_*Rationale:*_
US NFP (Job) data was mixed on Friday. Headline number was poor and
below estimate but revisions were higher and unemployment rate (5.1%)
was slightly below estimate. Consequently, Fed Fund Rate was showing
only 30% chance of Sep lift off and market is bracing now for Dec'15.
Despite that, US market sold off for its own growth concern, long week
end holiday (labour day today) and China opens today after two days
holidays there (as traders lighten their long positions for risk off).
All eyes will be on today's China figure of FX reserve data today after
the devaluation & intervention of Yuan by PBOC. Market is bracing for a
figure of around $100 billion decrease and keenly watched behavior of
mainland China market, which may be included in the MSCI index shortly
as par reports.
Stability of Chinese market is now most important for the global market
along with Fed's decision regarding rate hike on Sep'17.
Back home, though decision to implement OROP could cost us around
8000-10000 cr over the next five years or so and Govt has to find a
mechanism for necessary funding, it may act as a stimulus to our economy
as lots on money will come into the system (especially rural India)
which may be translated into real spending in the days ahead along with
implementation 7-th pay commission (Jan'16 onward).
Also there will be GST & RBI rate cut hope, which may kept the market
alive & volatile also.
_*Technical Analysis & Charts:*_
As par simple EW analysis, we may be in the C wave now and the text book
target may be 7660-7540 or in the worst case scenario even 6500
(extended correction).
As market is extremely oversold, watch 7632-7540 zone for any possible
short covering up to 7720-7785 today/this week.
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6qkHvz93uqA/VezuNEMPxjI/AAAAAAAAD7U/wVC-5vqAqUM/s1600/NF-WK-04-09-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XPJJysgwOxE/VezuPRE37dI/AAAAAAAAD7c/tIgReujELbI/s1600/NF-FIBB-04-09-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JhfIRCIkL1I/VezuWh0yIJI/AAAAAAAAD7k/B4BcP02UghQ/s1600/NF-WK-MA-04-09-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9F8wz-YzAcc/VezuY5C1vWI/AAAAAAAAD7s/f6iaxT9PkZs/s1600/NF-TL-04-09-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mdVVMgdQgqQ/VezubBIeOwI/AAAAAAAAD70/OQiXMo2nFJE/s1600/NF-TL-MT-04-09-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zafZroOhwHc/Vezudhs03uI/AAAAAAAAD78/wNXFm1130cI/s1600/NF-CHANNEL-04-09-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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