-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Infy: What The Chart Saying Ahead Of Result ?
Date: Sun, 11 Oct 2015 15:39:51 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Sustain above 1168-1200, Target May Be 1315-1405, Otherwise Expect Some
Corrections Up To 1050-932 *
*Market Is Expecting Q2FY16 PAT At Rs.3244 cr (7% Sequential Growth) &
QEPS 14.55*
*CMP: 1167*
*Buy >1168 OR on dips around 1140*
*TGT: 1200-1225-1285 (T+5)*
*TGT:1315-1405 (3-12M) *
*
*
*TSL<1125*
Note: Consecutive closing below 1125 for any reason. Infy may fall up to
1088-1048-996-960-932 area, where it can be again accumulated, depending
upon the news flow (earnings result & guidance) for better buying
average (investment purpose).
*Some Key points ahead of Infy result :*
Infy will publish its Q2FY16 result tomorrow and historically its very
important for our market sentiment. Although analysts are not expecting
any great turnaround for Q2 corporate earnings as a whole (average
earning growth around 5% YOY), any positive surprise could spark a rally
in the market.
Market is expecting Infy to deliver a strong Q2 result as traditionally
Q2 is the best quarter for IT companies. Recent management commentary
about some of its key verticals like manufacturing, retail, BFSI is
quite encouraging. Infy is also planning to enter big into
infrastructure management services and digital areas (automation) as par
its recent CLSA Hong Kong conference.
Although there is favorable impact for recent INR depreciation, absence
any significant increase in wage/visa cost, but higher provisioning for
variable pay outs, pricing pressure overseas and some cross currency
headwinds (AUD) may keep its margin expansion within a narrow band.
Full effect of its various acquisitions may reflect in Q3 onward. Large
deal wins and CEO's own office attention for its top 10 priority clients
may also reflect in the result in the coming days.
No doubt, under new CEO (Vishal Sikka), Infy is able to turnaround quite
convincingly for the last one year and both employees, clients and
investors of the company has regained trust & confidence on the company.
*
*
*Apart from result, revenue growth and guidance, the market will keenly
watch:*
Business & client spending trends in US & EU, as together this
contributes around 85% of Infy's revenue.
Management commentary on oil & gas sector as some of its rivals are
projecting a pick up in spending by global oil giants in the days ahead
(crude oil may hover around 50-70 $ in FY-16).
Performance of top 10 accountants/clients of Infy.
Infy's ability for swift absorption of next generation technology
(Artificial Intelligence-AI, Automation & digital) and proper
utilization of its huge cash reserve for acquisition of companies/start
ups in these field of AI.
Management commentary of H2FY16 performance as traditionally its also a
weak quarter for IT companies, including Infy.
Thus looking ahead, with improving macros of global economy amid easy
monetary stance, specially in EU & US and along with that "Digital
India" thrust, major IT companies having excellent management and strong
balance sheet are ideal for portfolio investments at every major dips
and Infy might be one of them.
Recently, Infy wins a major Govt IT project for pan India GST
implementation along with some other companies.
There is great potential for India to grow significantly in a more
"digital" way as its lacks sufficient pan India IT infrastructure and
our economy is also suffering historically for that (genesis of
unaccounted money for lack of plastic currency). Its a legacy issue for us.
Thus , we may see huge investments by Govt in PPP mode for "Digital
India" in the coming years and all major IT companies, including Infy
may be the beneficiary of that (Digital India/Made In India/Make India
theme).
*As par BG metrics, valuations of Infy (in the current market trends):*
*Present meddian valuation may be around: 1135 (FY:15)*
*Projected fair valuations might be around: 1200-1300-1425 (FY:16-18)*
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
INFY 54.3 220.89 21.55 1107.86 1157.13 1132.49
1048.87 1144.24
INFY 60.5 260.45 21.55 1169.40 1221.41 1195.40
1048.87 1144.24
INFY 71.25 305.95 21.55 1269.04 1325.48 1297.26
1048.87 1144.24
INFY 85.55 360.65 21.55 1390.58 1452.42 1421.50
1048.87 1144.24
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0823IPeCUgc/VhoqXRLizeI/AAAAAAAAESY/ZoeOxJxBUeU/s1600/INFY-09-10-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0_0HQ1-lwAM/VhoqZeLE6dI/AAAAAAAAESg/93SUsQcO0ZU/s1600/INFY-FIBB-09-10-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_vUyr8Mi27A/VhoqbNfRehI/AAAAAAAAESo/HCs_9TWvT9M/s1600/INFY-WK-09-10-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-c2_T7beiTzQ/VhoqdY-j04I/AAAAAAAAESw/QF2RF8UzIfs/s1600/INFY-PATTERN-09-10-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5RJpSXLjsUg/VhoqgDknsUI/AAAAAAAAES4/rlHUh_VdV3k/s1600/INFY-TL-09-10-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LDrYRTAmUBw/Vhoqt35gvyI/AAAAAAAAETA/q7rEYy7smfk/s1600/INFY-TL-ST-09-10-2015.png>
-- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh
--
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