Exp probability at around 8055-8205; SL<7680/7540 >From My Lava On Nov 11, 2015 9:36 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Sir. this expiry view in nfty ? > > On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > -------- Forwarded Message -------- > > Subject: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & 9200-9400 By FY17 > > Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2015 11:41:35 +0530 > > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> > > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com > > > > > > > > *For NF (Nov), 7750-7680 is big support now followed by 7540-7500 zone; * > > *Near term target 8055* > > > > *After Bihar "debacle", Govt's pro-active reform initiatives * > > *& dovish RBI may help,* > > *Despite Fed lift off "risk" in Dec'15* > > > > > > SGX NF: 7790 (CMP) > > > > NSE NF: 7800 (LTP) > > > > Trading Levels: NF-Nov > > > > > > > > SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > For Intraday Swing Trader > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > > Strong > 7770 > > 7825-40* 7900-80 8005-55* 8085-110 > 8135-205 <7750 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Weak < 7750 > > 7720-680* 7660-30 7563-40* 7500-445 > 7400-300 >7770 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > FOR Conservative Positional Trader > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > > Strong > 7770 > > 7840* 7980 8055* 8110 8205-340 <7750 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Weak < 7750 > > 7680* 7630 7540* 7445 7300-7030 >7770 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > As expected, after Bihar election debacle (primarily for its own > > strategical blunder for BJP), Govt is now gearing up for all possible > > non-legislative reforms in a big way and yesterday's Diwali gift of > > big-bang FDI reforms may be just an indication. > > > > We may see more such pro-active initiatives on the part of the Govt in > > the days ahead irrespective of any political compulsions, because after > > Bihar election, BJP might realize that "intolerance, beef politics, mud > > slugging " etc are not alternatives for pro-development agenda to win > > voter's mind. > > > > Regarding various key reform passage, which are stuck in RS, Govt may > > also try to push it through state levels in an indirect way (like land > > reforms). After Bihar, Govt may also try to reach out to the key > > opposition parties in RS with more soft tones and re-conciliatory > > manners (i.e. back door negotiation & effective political management) > > leaving aside its "arrogance of LS numbers" for passage of GST & other > > key reform bills in winter session of Parliament. > > > > If united oppositions will not "oblige" either directly or indirectly > > (through abstain), then we may see even an extreme step like "Joint > > Session Of Parliament" to pass those bills. > > > > Clearly, BJP should believe in its own economic agenda and reform > > implementation policies more boldly, otherwise, even 2019 Parliament > > election may not be a "smooth affair" for it. > > > > Also state level acceptable face of a leader is required for a CM's > > post; too much dependency on "brand NAMO" & disassociation of its former > > key professional strategist also costing the BJP to a great extent. The > > strategist, who actually made the "brand NAMO" along with his > > professional team, recently shifted to Nitish Kumar's camp just few > > months ago of Bihar election, after some section of top BJP leaders > > tried to dump him after 2014 parliament election success (before Delhi > > election) !! > > > > Though Q2FY16 result is more or less as par street estimates, certainly > > some margin expansion is happening. Going ahead, with full transmission > > of 125 bps rate cut and RBI's possible dovish stance in FY16-17, we may > > see better corporate earnings, operating leverages and overall economic > > recovery despite there may not be favorable base effect of commodities. > > RBI may cut another 0.50% by March'16 for the favorable inflation curve > > and token Fed hike (0.25-0.50%). > > > > After last Friday's block buster NFP data and hawkish statements of > > various key FOMC members, including Yellen, its seems that Fed is likely > > to go for some "real action" in Dec meet. FFR is now showing around 66% > > probability of Fed lift off in Dec'15. The market is now giving > > attention, how fast Fed will act and projecting an average 0.25% in > > every alternate meet, thus targeting Fed Fund Rate 1.25-1.50% by > > Dec-2016 from the 0-0.25% at present. > > > > But having said that, there will be various economic data including > > retail sales & NFP on Dec-1st week and Fed will likely to see that also > > very closely for any real lift off. Going by the pure text books of > > economy, Fed should have hike rates much before, but the real US & > > global economy is not a text book and there will be political pressure > > on Fed too for not taking any ultra hawkish steps, specially in the 2016 > > election year of US. > > > > Thus going by recent rally in USD, even if Fed decides for a token "one > > & off" hike with dovish tone in Dec'15 to counter growing criticism and > > lack of confidence on US & Global (say China) economy, USD will be > > sold. Any ultra hawkish statement from Fed, like successive rapid > > increment @0.25% in every alternate meet will likely to cause USD more > > strength and will be not good for US economy itself. Thus, Fed may say > > that although headline job numbers is looking great, absolute > > participation rate is falling and refrain from any ultra hawkish stance > > for a "meeting by meeting live event" !! > > > > Even if, Fed decides to hike, there will be no dearth of liquidity > > globally as "24/7 printing machine" & QQE will "on" in the foreseeable > > future, thanks to ECB, BOJ & PBOC. > > > > For India, appeal of 4-D and lack of other stable EM destinations will > > be an added advantage to attract global liquidity; now it is up to India > > to set its policies and reform agenda in the the right direction to > > attract more FDI in a sustained way. > > > > Thus investors may take volatility in our market as an opportunity to > > enter good quality of stocks having credible management, earning > > visibility and great business model with good debt profile. > > > > *Technically, NF has good support at around 7770 (also extended EW-4 > > target) and sustain above that, next EW-5 may take us to around 8055 > > area in the near term.* > > > > *For FY16, target may be around 8200-8405 and consecutive closing above > > 8435, Nifty may scale up to 9200-9400 by FY17.* > > > > *Have a great"Diwali"----- * > > > > *Analytical Charts:* > > > > > > < > http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nbue4xGAcn8/VkLTU1PB_nI/AAAAAAAAE10/gtxUEprHAEU/s1600/NF-TL-RSI-10-11-2015.png > > > > > > < > http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t8Hq1Tg4IPA/VkLTaSN5y7I/AAAAAAAAE18/34LyJXjpfGQ/s1600/NF-PATTERN-10-11-2015.png > > > > > > < > http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WRtp6o9brG8/VkLTcouaHLI/AAAAAAAAE2E/Cqb0rt-2KT0/s1600/NF-EW-10-11-2015.png > > > > > > < > http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7KNYSwvhqSI/VkLS4ppi6XI/AAAAAAAAE1g/9s3__Yj4gXM/s1600/NF-WK-10-11-2015.png > > > > > > < > http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-49JmIDK9MA8/VkLS6HeM2yI/AAAAAAAAE1o/ZRXQhpVN2Wk/s1600/NF-Fibb-10-11-2015.png > > > > > > < > http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nWIO5gKGhyI/VkLS8HxfmfI/AAAAAAAAE1w/6vbuxnW_VtQ/s1600/NF-MA-10-11-2015.png > > > > > > -- > > Thanks & Regards, > > > > Asis Ghosh > > (asisghosh.blogspot.in) > > NCFM-TA Certified > > > > > > > > -- > > Kindly email stock reports at > > > > STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com > > > > For sharing knowledge > > > > -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. > > > > http://www.niftyviews.com/ > > > > > > Disclaimer :- > > "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on > > their individual experience and perceptions and to share information > > with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members > > in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The > > administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the > authors > > to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the > > same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research > > report; 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