-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Bank Nifty Fut (Dec): What's Next Ahead Of Fed & GST Drama ?
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 2015 08:36:00 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*BNF Need To Sustain Above 16500-660 For 17000-300*
*Otherwise Below 16250-140 Expect 15780-700*
*Over Concern (?) over stressed assets dragging the BNF--*
*Trading Levels: BNF (Dec)*
LTP: 16385
SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 16500
16625-660* 16717-800 16935-997* 17066-108 17177-270
<16450
Weak < 16450
16250-140* 15985-917 15780-700* 15560-485 15325-175
>16500
For the last few weeks BNF corrects by around 10% against the broader
market (Nifty) correction of around 5%. The primary reason for this
under performance may be renewed concern by RBI over stressed asset
quality of some of the banks, SDR & other debt restructuring mechanism
being employed by the banks, issues of base rate cut transmissions and
new methodology of base rate calculation to be effective by FY-17.
RBI is also concerned about overall NPL/NPA situation of banks,
specially in PSBS and growing tendency of some of the banks to hide the
actual stressed assets in the system by financial reporting juglary/tricks.
Market may be also concerned over highly leveraged corporate loan
accounts in some of the banks and impending Fed rate hike effect on USD
dominated debts of the corporate India.
Also recent data on inflation, which is indicating an upward trend in
both core & food inflation, may hinder prospect of aggressive rate cut
by RBI in 2016 (FY-17). There is also some concern over wage inflation
effect due to 7-th Pay Comm and USD outflow fear after Fed hike and its
FFR guidance.
As a result, many blue chip banks are now hovering near or below their
52-wks low.
Among all these concerns, there is a light of hope as Moody's think that
" Indian banks will get more resilient despite bad debts" due to good
banking regulation, liquidity back up by the Govt (for PSBS) and highly
expected overall economic recovery along with infra boom and kick start
of stalled projects in India.
*Technically, BNF may be in the corrective C wave in monthly EW cycle
and the projected target of the same is near 16250. Further, recent
price action suggests that sustain below 16250-140 for any reason, BNF
may dips to 15780-700. Consecutive closing below 15700, BNF may further
fall towards 15000 zone in the near term.*
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0ZnMqjG9-8M/Vm9_qRkmWzI/AAAAAAAAFTI/MTIery6Zt2g/s1600/BNF-14-12-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-P_HPuCdypkk/Vm9_sRqXQNI/AAAAAAAAFTQ/vigx_7J5_AU/s1600/BNF-FIBB-14-12-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pjmqbsaJviM/Vm9_u7nMa0I/AAAAAAAAFTY/hDE6MYpRFn0/s1600/BNF-WK-14-12-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bzyERgkCQCI/Vm9_x1r-n6I/AAAAAAAAFTg/AbA3MznwQkk/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-14-12-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FQnW3rp7asw/Vm9_0bnMg2I/AAAAAAAAFTo/c1e3dg3ZPto/s1600/BNF-TL-14-12-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0yE4ubMPM3Y/Vm9_2tuBO0I/AAAAAAAAFTw/UFTP-QmOlqE/s1600/BNF-EW-14-12-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
--
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