-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Gold : Ahead Of Fed, What's The Chart Is Saying ?
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 2015 07:20:49 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
* For Gold 1040 is a big support zone for now and only sustaining below
that expect 1025-1005 area & it has to stay above 1075 for 1100-1191 zone*
*Trading Levels: Gold (CMP: 1065)*
*Either Buy above 1075 or wait for dips around 1050-1040;*
*TGT: 1090-1100*-1140 (1-3M)*
*TGT: 1165-1191*-1215 (6-12M)*
*TSL<1025*
*Note: Consecutive closing below 1025 for any reason, Gold can fall up
to 1015-1005* & 984 area in the worst bear case scenario.*
As we are approaching the much awaited Fed day tomorrow, market has
already discounted "one & off" token rate hike of 0.25% & another 0.25%
by April'16 (Dovish hike). Now, its the Fed guidance about future FFR,
which will dictate the market.
Considering Fed's ultimate dual mandate of maximum employment (5%) and
reasonable inflation (CPI 2%) target, Fed may not employ too much
hawkish language in its communication as headline CPI is too far away at
0.5% (but core CPI is around 2%) and manufacturing data in US is also
very tepid.
In 2016, Fed may even take the weapon of "negative interest rate" as
alternative QQE (like in ECB) to stimulate the "real street" in US, if
there is no "surprise" on Dec-16 (Hawkish Skip/Hold; it was a close
call, but it favoursthe 1-st hike into 2016, just like in Sep'15 !!)
On the other hand, ECB, BOJ & even PBOC is ready for further QQE in
different forms and ready to devalue its currency further to stimulate
its economy & export; i,e they are taking divergent policy wrt to Fed.
For the last one year, after QE tapering in US completed and Fed's
continuous talks of rate hike (normalization) and verbal intervention,
Gold has already corrected by around 20% from early Jan'15 top of around
1306 and over 45% from Sep'11 high of around 1923. As QQE in US, ECB &
Japan failed to stimulate the expected inflation in the economy, Gold
has also lost its traditional appeal as a "hedge against inflation".
But, despite that, in the current era of competitive currency
devaluation (currency war) by different economies , Gold has an eternal
appeal as a "hard asset" against "fragile paper currency" specially in a
"doom's day" like situation in global financial market (although chances
are very remote).
*Technically, Gold may be in the corrective B Wave of the weekly EW
cycle and the extended target of the same is near 1040. If this zone of
1040 is respected, then the impulsive C wave target may be near 1098 in
the short to mid term.*
*
*
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GFe21hoXdMY/VnBacZm89FI/AAAAAAAAFUM/vpePNd61aSQ/s1600/Gold-15-12-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cNJ2crAn02I/VnBadyjqmBI/AAAAAAAAFUU/nG9HowSs9nQ/s1600/Gold-FIBB-15-12-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E7XhnVo9hgE/VnBafwLcc1I/AAAAAAAAFUc/Wb74ROwLNQU/s1600/Gold-WK-15-12-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jr4regBlSQI/VnBaiBQkViI/AAAAAAAAFUk/x9uQs7HlTMs/s1600/Gold-TL-RSI-15-12-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hFAbTLNQCo8/VnBazu8fcSI/AAAAAAAAFUs/PYc_s0xl9KE/s1600/Gold-Pattern-15-12-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2tl52BCTK-M/VnBbAqJ0x7I/AAAAAAAAFU0/7MxwdrERwmc/s1600/Gold-EW-15-12-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
--
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