[Biofuel] Five charts that show why Trump can’t deliver on his coal promises
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/12/06/trump-cant-deliver-on-his-coal-promises/ [Charts and links are in the on-line article. U.S. data] Five charts that show why Trump can’t deliver on his coal promises Devashree Saha Tuesday, December 6, 2016 President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to revive the coal industry and bring back coal mining jobs with fewer regulations and better trade deals. However, Trump’s vision of a revived coal industry that offers plentiful new jobs may remain just that: a vision. No one can deny the problems in the coal industry that Trump claims he will address. Coal production has plummeted to levels not seen since the early 1980s. The average number of employees at coal mines has decreased 12 percent to 66,000 employees, the fewest since 1978. And, the industry has been plagued by a series of bankruptcies. However, Trump is ignoring the real reasons behind the industry’s struggles. In doing so, he is making unrealistic promises to revive a dying industry. Since 2000, a series of market forces—the shale gas revolution, which has eroded coal’s price advantage; cost reductions in renewable energy technology; the overall flat demand in the power sector; shifts in global demand for coal; and declining coal mine labor productivity—have all contributed to coal’s decline, likely more so than government regulation. Let’s look at each of these market forces in detail. The decline in coal’s fortunes is largely a result of competition from cheap and abundant natural gas, which was freed in soaring volumes during the last decade due to technological advancements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The utility industry, motivated by profit and a desire to keep costs low, has been shifting significantly from coal to natural gas. In 2000, coal accounted for 51.7 percent of electricity generation, compared with just 15.8 percent for natural gas. By 2015, coal’s share had dropped to 33.2 percent, while natural gas rose to 32.7 percent of total generation. The Energy Information Administration predicted in March that natural gas’ share of the electricity market would surpass coal for the first time in 2016, a trend likely to pick up pace as long as natural gas prices remain low. To keep his promises of reviving the coal industry, Trump will have to figure out a way to increase the price of natural gas. While cheap natural gas has inflicted the most damage on coal, renewable energy—including wind and solar—has also contributed to a shift away from coal in many parts of the United States. The cost to build a utility-scale solar photovoltaic plant has fallen by about 80 percent since 2009, while wind project costs have dropped by 60 percent. As a result, large solar and wind farms can compete in the power market even with low natural gas prices. The entry of renewable energy projects into the market is leading to a reduction in coal-fired generation in many places, including deep red states. For instance, Iowa and Kansas get 30 percent and 21 percent of their electricity from wind, respectively, and Texas has added more wind-based generating capacity than any other state. Many studies (see here and here) have noted that renewable energy development is poised to grow significantly, even in the event that the Clean Power Plan is not implemented. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)—or how much money it takes to produce one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity from a particular source—shows that wind and solar have become increasingly cost-competitive with coal, even on an unsubsidized basis. Third, GDP growth and electricity consumption in the United States have become decoupled. Total electricity sales dropped 1.1 percent in 2015, marking the fifth decline in the previous eight years. A combination of factors—including significant uptake in energy efficiency investments, the growing popularity of rooftop solar, changing composition of the economy, and a slowdown in economic growth—account for declining rates of electricity demand growth. Given flattened demand, utility companies are forced to seek the lowest-cost sources of electricity to remain profitable in the face of sticky prices from unchanging demand. Because current LCOEs for non-coal sources are generally below the LCOE for coal, Trump would again have to increase prices for non-coal sources of electricity to bolster the coal industry. Recent global shifts in coal demand do not suggest that coal’s strength lies outside U.S. borders, either. Coal exports fell for the third consecutive year in 2015 , ending the year 23 million short tons (MMst) lower than in 2014 and more than 50 MMst less than the record volume exported in 2012. Some of this decrease is likely attributable to the slowdown in Chinese economic growth. The International Energy Agency forecasts that U.S. coal exports will continue to decline in the face of slowing Chinese cons
[Biofuel] Look Fast: Solar Is Blowing Past Coal...And Gas...And Wind | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/16/look-fast-solar-blowing-past-coal-gas-wind/ [images links in on-line article] Look Fast: Solar Is Blowing Past Coal…And Gas…And Wind December 16th, 2016 by Tina Casey Now, here’s a surprise. Wind power has been growing at a rapid clip, but it looks like solar is sneaking up from behind with a Negasonic Teenage Warhead-scale weapon in hand: it’s cheaper. In fact, according to data studied by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, solar power is on its way to becoming “the cheapest form of new electricity” globally, even without subsidies. The data is drawn from the third annual edition of an online tool called Climatescope, and yes, it shows that solar is becoming cheaper than coal and natural gas, too. To be clear, BNEF’s take on the Climatescope data does not show that solar is cheaper in all markets. It’s a trend report that focuses on 58 emerging energy markets, including the gigantic Chinese and Indian markets. Chile, Brazil, Uruguay and South Africa have also emerged as high-demand markets for low carbon (aka non-coal) energy projects. Industry observers have been tracking cheap solar, which was once confined to highly specific, individual episodes such as regional auctions where competition pushes prices down. BNEF teases out how those tiny specks are beginning to enlarge and connect: …unsubsidized solar is beginning to outcompete coal and natural gas on a larger scale, and notably, new solar projects in emerging markets are costing less to build than wind projects, according to fresh data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. According to BNEF, industry observers have been anticipating that solar would outpace wind because costs are dropping more rapidly in the solar field. The surprise is that it happened so quickly. Aside from being cheaper, solar also surpassed wind in the number of installations. BNEF’s projections for 2016 is that newly completed solar projects will add up to 70 gigawatts, with wind coming in second at 59 gigawatts. More Bad News For Coal Wind is still in a competitive position for power generation and it still has plenty of room to grow in terms of technology improvements that lower costs. Natural gas is also still in a good position for power generation, especially with Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson set to lead US global energy policy as Secretary of State for the incoming Trump Administration (his position is pending confirmation by the Senate). That leaves coal the odd man out, and BNEF does not spare the knife: The world recently passed a turning point and is adding more capacity for clean energy each year than for coal and natural gas combined. Peak fossil-fuel use for electricity may be reached within the next decade. If 2016 is any indication, peak use could come even sooner than BNEF projects: This year has seen a remarkable run for solar power. Auctions, where private companies compete for massive contracts to provide electricity, established record after record for cheap solar power. It started with a contract in January to produce electricity for $64 per megawatt-hour in India; then a deal in August pegging $29.10 per megawatt hour in Chile. That’s record-cheap electricity—roughly half the price of competing coal power. US coal companies have been depending on the export market to prop them up, but the rug is being pulled out from under those markets by global investors in solar and other renewables, notably those based in China. The trend further undercuts President-elect Donald Trump’s emotional appeals to US coal workers and their communities during the 2016 campaign season. They helped propel him into office but ever since the bad news has been cascading down upon the domestic coal industry. More $$$ For Cheap Energy One interesting finding in Climatescope is that renewable energy projects tend to be more expensive in developed economies, where electricity demand has flatlined. That’s reflected in the location of the dollars where investors are staking their claims. The 58 markets targeted by Bloomberg, despite their lower position on the developed-economy scale, slightly outspent the 35 developed nations that belong to OECD (the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development). The numbers add up to $153.7 billion for OECD nations, with the 58 emerging markets clocking in at $154.1 billion. Right Back At You, Rex Soon-to-be Secretary of State Tillerson has been traveling the globe to tout low cost natural gas as the only way to lift emerging markets out of “energy poverty.” That’s true for the here and now. It’s also true that coal will continue to play a role in emerging markets for the foreseeable future. However, the trend clearly points to shrinkage for both gas and coal in favor of solar and other renewables, and BNEF is not shy about hammering away at it. Here’s the closing argument from BNEF’s press release announcing the new
