http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2006/08/guest-post-on-cellulosic-ethanol.html
R-Squared Energy Blog: Guest Post on Cellulosic Ethanol
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Guest Post on Cellulosic Ethanol
The following is a guest post by Don Augenstein and John Benemann.
They have many years of expertise in biomass conversion. This essay
is in response to Vinod Khosla's recent posting on ethanol. In my
opinion, it is an excellent essay. First is the introduction by Don
Augenstein.
Introduction
This post presents a perspective on ethanol from lignocellulose by my
friend and co-worker, John Benemann. We have worked on, and been
immersed in, biofuels and analyses of fuels from biomass processes
for over 3 decades. We are to substantial degrees biotechnologists,
as well as chemical engineers and have successful processes going
today (methane from wastes. You can google Don Augenstein). We have
worked long and hard on biofuels for entities including Exxon (long
ago), the Electric Power Research Institute, and others. Our
carefully considered view, for which we will be happy to provide
abundant evidence is that severe barriers remain to ethanol from
lignocellulose. The barriers look as daunting as they did 30 years
ago. Ethanol from lignocellulose may indeed come to pass. But the
odds against are so dismal that a hydrocarbon fueled 200 mile per
gallon passenger automobile would be more likely to be developed.
We have been tied up with project work and were not able to
participate in the interesting, and extensive Oil Drum discussion
regarding Vinod Khosla's views on ethanol from lignocellulose. As you
can tell from our paper (abstract at the end of the essay) to the
solid waste people (which remains rather obscure, to a limited
audience), we think that there is desperate need for more airing of
the reasons for skepticism and warning the energy community of the
obvious barriers. We are astonished and stupefied that the hype has
gone as far as it has.
Better late than never. I present John Benemann's statement below.
Dr. John Benemann on Cellulosic Ethanol
I read the presentation of Vinod Khosla and most of the responses. I
have some experience in this field, about 30 years of being in the
ring of biofuels technology development, with first-row seats, so to
speak, on the fights I was not in myself.
Re. lignocellulosic ethanol, I am, bluntly, a skeptic. See our
abstract, copied below. This is R&D, not something ready for
commercial ventures, at least not in any time, or with any risk
ratio, a typical venture capitalist would accept. Perhaps Vinod
Khosla is not a typical VC, though I have no basis for assuming that.
Much more important, this technology is not ready for policy
decisions. It compares with, for one example only, the
near-late-lamented Hydrogen Program of the Bush-Cheney
Administration. Coming from the same source, talk about curing our
addiction to Middle East oil by substituting for it an addiction to
Middle America ethanol, has just as much credibility. I note that all
long-term R&D (is there any other?) for hydrogen is being terminated
next month by the Dept. of Energy.
Of course, the issue is not whether Vinod Khosla is making a wise
investment, one that will make him even richer and his investors too,
or the opposite is true, or even what the Bush-Cheney administration
dictates that our reality will be. The issue is, does the technology
work now, can it be made to work in short order, or can we predict
when and if it will work with any assurance?
One thing I notice from this entire discussion is an absence of any
arguments based on technology. I am among other things a
biotechnologist, and very familiar with the associated chemical
engineering issues. I would have expected at least some mention of
past and recent experiences, of problems, such as needs for extensive
feedstock pretreatment or problems with fermentations, about current
R&D focus, at least a few citations to the web. Nothing. Neither from
Vinod Khosla nor the 360 odd Oil Drum respondents.
The only information presented is that Vinod Khosla has invested in
three different technologies. Well, a fair enough investment
strategy, but even with a one out of three chance, this is a long
shot, even in the long term, by which I mean over 10 plus years,
beyond which there are no crystal balls.
I strongly support R&D in this field. Money would be better spent on
that than on just one commercial plant. Or even a pilot plant. And,
let me hasten to add, that it is perfectly possible to make ethanol
from lignocellulosic biomass, it's just extraordinarily inefficient,
with EROEI easily determined to be about 1:5. The Soviets had some
wood-to-ethanol plants running during WWII, and kept them going
afterwards, with at least one going on until the Soviet Union
collapsed. Not a pretty technology, without even looking at the
energy balance (cheap coal or then-cheap Soviet natural gas to
ex
