[teknologia] Re: How statistics caught Indonesia's war-criminals

2006-02-16 Terurut Topik Ikhlasul Amal

On 2/12/06, Edo Caligula [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Yg menjadi menarik adalah setelah melihat list project mereka
 http://www.hrdag.org/about/projects.shtml
 untuk Middle East hanya ada Iran, untuk Asia tidak ada Vietnam, untuk
 South America
 tidak ada Chile  :)

 Meskipun tetap menarik juga mereka mampu menggunakan statistik
 yg credible untuk memprediksi sesuatu yg selalu jadi debat, jumlah
 korban di daerah konflik.
 Sebentar lagi sepertinya Papua bakal menjadi portofolia mereka nih... :D


Hehehe... statistik memang menarik, dan seperti halnya senter, setelah
itu tinggal dilihat akan disorotkan ke mana. Perkuat ujung diplomatik,
ah! ;)

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[teknologia] Re: How statistics caught Indonesia's war-criminals

2006-02-11 Terurut Topik Edo Caligula

On 2/12/06, Ronny Haryanto [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 To generate the East Timor report, HRDAG researchers spent three
 years in the country -- now called Timor-Leste -- collecting and
 analyzing mountains of raw data. The group marshaled 8,000
 testimonies and developed innovative sources of information,
 including the first human rights retrospective mortality survey to
 determine how many people died and why.
 Ronny

Untuk kasus East Timor deskripsi yg mereka tuliskan bisa
memberi kesan Indonesia meng-invade East Timor semata
tanpa memberi gambaran konteks yg terjadi pada tahun 1975.

http://www.hrdag.org/about/timor-leste.shtml

...In December 1975, as the Portuguese colonial administration in
Timor weakened, the Indonesian government launched a massive invasion
of the eastern part of the small, divided island

http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB62/

..the fate of a post-colonial East Timor paled in comparison to the
strategic relationship with the anti-communist Suharto regime,
especially in the wake of the communist victory in Vietnam, when Ford
and Kissinger wanted to strengthen relations with anti-communists and
check left-wing movements in the region...

Pada saat itu Indonesia telah mendapatkan restu dari Mbah Kissinger

...But it is not simply a matter of omission; on several occasions
Kissinger has explicitly denied that he ever had substantive
discussions of East Timor with Suharto, much less having consented to
Indonesian plans.(2)  The new evidence contradicts Kissinger's
statements: Indonesian plans for the invasion of East Timor were
indeed discussed with Suharto, and Ford and Kissinger gave them the
green light.  As Kissinger advised Suharto on the eve of the invasion:
it is important that whatever you do succeeds quickly but that it
would be better if it were done after we returned to the United
States

HRDAG mengimplistikan jumlah yg tewas di East Timor akibat
kondisi perang yg tidak mendukung, penyakit kelaparan dkk
yg sebenarnya jauh lebih banyak dari jumlah yg terbunuh/hilang.

...Benetech's statistical analysis establishes that at least 102,800
(+/- 11,000) Timorese died as a result of the conflict. Approximately
18,600 (+/- 1000) Timorese were killed or disappeared, while the
remainder died due to hunger and illness in excess of what would be
expected due to peacetime mortality...

Yg menjadi menarik adalah setelah melihat list project mereka
http://www.hrdag.org/about/projects.shtml
untuk Middle East hanya ada Iran, untuk Asia tidak ada Vietnam, untuk
South America
tidak ada Chile  :)

Meskipun tetap menarik juga mereka mampu menggunakan statistik
yg credible untuk memprediksi sesuatu yg selalu jadi debat, jumlah
korban di daerah konflik.
Sebentar lagi sepertinya Papua bakal menjadi portofolia mereka nih... :D

-edo-