Public bug reported:

Trying to update an old 18.04 VM and it fails.

$ lsb_release -rd
Description:    Ubuntu 18.04.5 LTS
Release:        18.04

$ do-release-upgrade
Checking for a new Ubuntu release
Get:1 Upgrade tool signature [1,554 B]                                          
                   
Get:2 Upgrade tool [1,340 kB]                                                   
                   
Fetched 1,342 kB in 0s (0 B/s)                                                  
                   
authenticate 'focal.tar.gz' against 'focal.tar.gz.gpg' 
extracting 'focal.tar.gz'
[sudo] password for mpfj: 

Reading cache

Checking package manager
Reading package lists... Done
Building dependency tree        
Reading state information... Done
Hit http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu bionic InRelease                        
                   
Hit http://security.ubuntu.com/ubuntu bionic-security InRelease                 
                   
Hit http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu bionic-updates InRelease                
                   
Hit http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu bionic-backports InRelease              
                   
Fetched 0 B in 0s (0 B/s)                                                       
                   
Reading package lists... Done    
Building dependency tree          
Reading state information... Done

Checking for installed snaps

Calculating snap size requirements

Updating repository information
Get:1 http://security.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal-security InRelease [109 kB]       
                   
Hit http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal InRelease                         
                   
Get:2 http://security.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal-security/main amd64 Packages [623 
kB]                
Hit http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal-updates InRelease                 
                   
Hit http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal-backports InRelease               
                   
Get:3 http://security.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal-security/main i386 Packages [220 
kB]                 
Get:4 http://security.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal-security/universe amd64 Packages 
[555 kB]            
Get:5 http://security.ubuntu.com/ubuntu focal-security/universe i386 Packages 
[438 kB]             
Fetched 1,945 kB in 0s (0 B/s)                                                  
                   

Checking package manager
Reading package lists... Done    
Building dependency tree          
Reading state information... Done

Calculating the changes

Calculating the changes

Could not determine the upgrade

An unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade.

If none of this applies, then please report this bug using the 
command 'ubuntu-bug ubuntu-release-upgrader-core' in a terminal. If 
you want to investigate this yourself the log files in 
'/var/log/dist-upgrade' will contain details about the upgrade. 
Specifically, look at 'main.log' and 'apt.log'. 


Restoring original system state

Aborting
Reading package lists... Done    
Building dependency tree          
Reading state information... Done

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 18.04
Package: ubuntu-release-upgrader-core 1:18.04.44
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 4.15.0-142.146-generic 4.15.18
Uname: Linux 4.15.0-142-generic x86_64
ApportVersion: 2.20.9-0ubuntu7.23
Architecture: amd64
CrashDB: ubuntu
CurrentDesktop: Unity:Unity7:ubuntu
Date: Tue Apr 27 22:25:14 2021
InstallationDate: Installed on 2012-06-08 (3245 days ago)
InstallationMedia: Ubuntu 12.04 LTS "Precise Pangolin" - Release amd64 
(20120425)
PackageArchitecture: all
SourcePackage: ubuntu-release-upgrader
UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to bionic on 2021-04-27 (0 days ago)
mtime.conffile..etc.update-manager.release-upgrades: 2021-04-27T20:27:01.492636

** Affects: ubuntu-release-upgrader (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: amd64 apport-bug bionic dist-upgrade

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1926367

Title:
  Unable to update from 18.04 to 20.04

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