Thank you so very much Mukulu Ruzindana for this very sober analysis.
The confused among us, but also the sharks and self-seekers,  want to drive
our country to a losing and a dead end of a  violent inferno.  We have to
campaign, untiringly, and with a louder voice, for National Dialogue.In
preparation for this we have to take stock and do an evaluation, not only
of our Institutions and the present State actors, but must also examine
whether we as citizens have been vigilant and measured up to our
responsibilities.It is only after this evaluation that we will know the
correct direction and path for the future.Some want to pit one ethnicity
against another. Others want to negotiate away our sovereignty for very
narrow selfish ends. We reject them all.Mitayo Potosi

=============================================
Ongoing political realignments call for a national dialogue
By Augustine Ruzindana

Posted  Friday, June 21  2013 at  10:20

In Summary

*...when Sejusa spoke, some promotions, even of some retired officers, were
made to accompany some rapid promotions he had criticised and some
mechanism has been put in place to look into the issues of those officers
whose desire to retire from the army had been ignored.
*


Uganda is once again going through some political realignments signaled by
a number of seemingly unrelated events but all pointing to internal regime
contradictions that are increasing in scope and magnitude and denuding its
confidence and cohesion.

Just four ‘rebels’ in Parliament move otherwise inert organs of NRM(O) into
frantic action to obliterate them from the face of the political earth, but
end up boosting their profile into significant national political figures.
Then maneuvers against them in Parliament have failed and action against
them through the judicial process has stalled because the helmsman disabled
the judicial system by denying it the necessary appointments in the
Constitutional and Supreme Courts.

The attacks against them in their domestic political turf is not succeeding
either as there is no enabling law and regulations to facilitate the
enforcement of the constitutional provision to recall an MP. Apparently,
there is no legal framework to enforce the ruler’s anger and the proverb
that “omunyakiniga aita ebye” (a quick to anger person destroys his own
property) is gradually becoming a reality. Meanwhile, internal NRM
rebellion is spreading to the countryside. In Ntungamo District, some local
leaders, at district council and LC 111 levels, also called ‘rebels’, have
so far successfully repulsed moves against them. There was a recent attempt
to oust the district council speaker (one of the rebels) that miserably
failed.

In Kampala, the amount of time, money and personnel that are devoted to
frustrating and now to evict the elected Lord Mayor from his position, are
a phenomenal waste of resources. The most recent media captions of the Lord
Mayor were the usual police manhandling of him and teargassing of people
who happened to have been in the vicinity of where he had intended to
address the people who elected him.

The dispute with taxi drivers and owners is an extension of the struggle
with the Kampala Lor Mayor that has driven the regime into countermanding a
court decision leading to confrontation, teargassing and arrests of
numerous taxi drivers and owners who have hitherto been staunch regime
supporters.

Also, the fact that the immediate former vice president has openly declared
that he will contest for the post of his boss both in the NRM party and the
government is not just the footnote many take it to be. He is taking
definite steps to implement what he has said, meaning that he now
challenging the one man vision claim that is the basis of the life
presidency project. It is not a secret anymore that there are some other
NRM political leaders harbouring similar “treasonous” intentions.

The fissures within regime support are not confined to only the political
leadership. Gen David Sejusa, hitherto the most ruthless and effective
repressor of the opposition, by his recent statements and exile domicile,
is now a declared anti-dictatorship crusader. However, some in the
opposition have not understood the significance of Sejusa’s open rebellion,
focusing on his record of ruthlessness.

The main significance of Sejusa’s utterances and actions is that someone
highly placed in the intelligence and military establishments and extremely
knowledgeable about regime strengths has come to the conclusion that the
regime is not strong anymore and he is telling the world about it.

The regime reaction and inconsistent statements have revealed extreme
nervousness and uncertainty and of late it has become prudent to leave it
to civilian Ofwono Opondo to respond to the General. The situation is still
developing but the point to note is that when Sejusa spoke, some
promotions, even of some retired officers, were made to accompany some
rapid promotions he had criticised and some mechanism has been put in place
to look into the issues of those officers whose desire to retire from the
army had been ignored. Most noteworthy is that reshuffles in the military
leadership and in Cabinet have also been effected.

To make matters worse, even the long reliable external support seems to be
faltering. Therefore, clearly the regime is weak and attempts to prove the
contrary will be more frantic and more out of the ordinary. In such
circumstances the regime, rather than become more repressive, should be
ready to engage in a national dialogue on the way forward for the country.

*Mr Ruzindana is a former IGG and former MP. a_ruzind...@yahoo.com*
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