The people smoke out the grey fox How Shevardnadze went from glasnost hero to hated lame duck - and who will succeed him.
Ian Traynor
Sunday November 23 2003 The Observer
The most famous and most influential Georgian in world politics since Joseph Stalin, Eduard Shevardnadze, finally bowed out last night after controlling his small but strategically crucial country for more than a generation.
The ageing, white-haired fox, whose double-act charm offensive with
Mikhail Gorbachev gained him a place in the history books as a key agent in the
collapse of communism in the Soviet Union and eastern Europe, leaves behind a
failed state.
As the buoyant but inexperienced opposition expanded its takeover
ambitions and key figures in the presidential entourage switched sides, the
75-year-old president cut a lonely figure from another era. In his final days,
he clung to power by trying to forge alliances of expediency with unsavoury
warlords and the Kremlin.
Nepotism and patronage, adroit exploitation of American backing over the
past decade, and ruthless control of the communist security apparatus
throughout the Soviet Union's final two decades ensured Mr Shevardnadze's
longevity. But despised at home and increasingly isolated, he miscalculated
badly in the end. Most importantly, perhaps, he lost Washington's confidence as
the guarantor of longer-term western interests in the country, which lies
between Russia and the Middle East, astride the fabulous hydrocarbon riches of
the Caspian basin.
Clinging to power in the face of the kind of popular demonstrations he helped to trigger in the pro-democracy revolutions of 1989-91, Mr Shevardnadze was pushed back into Moscow's embrace, a bitter irony for the man who had spent the past decade snubbing the Kremlin and currying favour in Washington.
The KGB veterans and "great power" Russia advocates running Vladimir Putin's Kremlin despise Mr Shevardnadze as the man who helped destroy the Soviet superpower. Mr Putin's hostility has been compounded by his conviction that Mr Shevardnadze has been less than helpful on the war in Chechnya, across Georgia's northern border.
Building on the plaudits he gained in the west as the Soviet foreign
minister, "Shevvy" had long been Washington's darling. But in recent
months, the US has despaired of him. Richard Miles, the US ambassador in
Tbilisi, has been actively grooming the young, US-trained lawyer
Mikhail Saakashvili to lead the succession. A series of senior US figures passed
through Tbilisi this year to warn Mr Shevardnadze that his days were numbered.
"We would like to see stronger leadership," Mr Miles told the Washington Post recently in an unusually public criticism of a long-standing US ally.
The November 2 election shambles that triggered the Tbilisi tumult
featured a number of elements cut straight from the template the Americans are
using to engineer democratic change in target countries. The same tactics were
applied by the US triumphantly in Serbia in 2000 to topple Slobodan Milosevic.
Michael Kozak, the US ambassador in Minsk, then sought to emulate the success in
elections in Belarus against the authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko and failed.
Mineral bonanza
The elements include grooming an opposition leader, such as Mr
Saakashvili. US-funded pollsters, strategists, consultants and non-governmental
organisations are also deployed to defeat ballot rigging by conducting "parallel
vote tabulations" and instant exit polls that win the propaganda war by getting
the message of extensive poll fraud out long before the official results. As a
result, a tidal wave of discontent with Mr Shevardnadze was unleashed and built
up for three weeks, leaving the president to conclude bitterly that Washington
is a fairweather friend.
For most of the past decade it was different. Back in 1999, Boris
Yeltsin phoned Mr Shevardnadze and demanded to use Georgia for a Russian
invasion of Chechnya. Strobe Talbott, the Clinton administration's Russia
specialist, said no and Mr Shevardnadze took his cue from Washington. Mr Putin,
then just entrenching his power by launching the war in Chechnya, never forgave
the Georgian leader.
Within a month of the September 11 attacks, Mr Shevardnadze was in the
White House offering to host US troops while Georgia benefited from some
of the highest per-capita aid handouts made by the US. In late 2001, at US
bidding, Mr Shevardnadze purged the top ranks of the security agencies and
brought in the pro-American former ambassador in Washington, Tedo Dzhaparidze,
as his national security chief. The latter now appears to be the hinge between
the old and the new regimes, and his role will be central to the outcome of the
current tussle.
The proactive US policy on Georgia is explained not least by the country's
centrality to control of the Caspian wealth, with the US-backed BP pipeline
being built from the Caspian to Turkey running through Georgia, bypassing Russia
and Iran.
In short, Georgia has continued to be a cold war playground, with Russia
and the US competing for a country that is a strategic prize in the
contest to control the Caspian mineral bonanza. "This is a place," said a senior
European official in Tbilisi, "where the cold war is still boiling hot. You have
a clear confrontation between Russia and the west."
While the US shored up Mr Shevardnadze as Georgia degenerated into a
classic "failed state", the Russians made mischief and contributed
hugely to keeping Georgia as a failed state. They kept troops and military bases
there and refused to pull out. They backed separatists and turned off gas and
electricity supplies to keep Tbilisi in the dark. They crippled Mr Shevard
nadze's Georgia and fomented disaffection. But the prospect of a Saakashvili
regime that owes its arrival to strong American backing is also anathema to
Moscow.
The American, British, European and UN statements on the crisis all
called for dialogue, compromise and eschewal of violence, but said little of the
constitution.
Man of the party machine
1928 Shevardnadze is born on January 25 in Mamati, Georgia, then part of the Soviet Union
1948-72 He joins Soviet Communist party in Georgia and rises steadily through the ranks, becoming a member of the Georgian Supreme Soviet in 1959, interior minister in 1968 and party chief in 1972
1976 Joins Communist party central committee
1985 Becomes Soviet foreign minister and is instrumental in nuclear arms reduction talks with Reagan in Iceland in 1986
1989 February: Last of the Soviet troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan November: The Berlin Wall falls following the development of democratic movements in eastern Europe. Both developments were supported by Shevardnadze
1991 August: Joins Boris Yeltsin in resisting the coup against Gorbachev. Briefly resumes as Soviet foreign minister until USSR becomes defunct
1992 Returns to Georgia after Zviad Gamsakhurdia is ousted as president; elected speaker of parliament. Leads Georgia to defeat in war against secessionist region of Abkhazia
1993 October: Takes Georgia into Commonwealth of Independent States
1995 August: Survives assassination attempt November: Elected president for first five-year term
1998 February: Second assassination attempt
2000 Re-elected for five-year term
2003 November 2: Parliamentary elections put pro-Shevardnadze bloc in front, but opposition alleges fraud Nov 4: Opposition rallies outside parliament, calling for Shevardnadze to step down Nov 9: Shevardnadze meets opposition but talks fruitless Nov 20: Elections validated Nov 22: Opposition storms parliament as president convenes new assembly; Shevardnadze forced to flee the building Nov 23: Resigns live on television
Copyright Guardian Newspapers Limited
Mitayo Potosi
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