[Ugnet] Can 'Third Term' Plunge Uganda Into Civil War?

There must be a very good reason to engage in any armed struggle. By manipulating and tinkering with the Uganda Constitution to allow Museveni to rule for life, THe NRM will provide a that reason for citizens of Uganda to engage in armed insurrection. The second reason, as to why there will be an armed insurrections against Museveni's NRM military dictatorship is that the people of Uganda ( especially in North and Eastern Uganda) , are tired of living in a state of immense suffering in the camps for now close to 20 years. No Human being should endure such suffering for one year ..let alone twenty years. If wars and armed struggle were to erupt in Uganda, members of the International community and the people of Uganda would understand the circumstance in Uganda which necessitated such up raising.

The political situation in Uganda now can be broadly captured in one word - transition. Notwithstanding the legal, administrative and constitutional deductions and manoeuvrings, the most confounding aspect of the transitional process still remains the role President Yoweri Museveni will play after the magical year of 2006. Within the transitional process is what is now known as Kisanja, the campaign for Museveni's third term of office.

The government has tabled a bill in Parliament seeking the removal of presidential term limits, a move interpreted as a ploy aimed at making Museveni legible as a candidate in the 2006 presidential elections. But Museveni's possible candidature in the elections is the cause for unease. The donor community has already expressed its discomfiture with the trend that points to Museveni's reluctance to leave power in 2006. Recent press reports quote a World Bank study which expressed fear of a possible civil war if the transition to multi-party politics was not handled very well. And the opposition political groups have been talking of the possibility of a civil war if the 2006 elections are rigged. In what can be interpreted as a pointer that a civil war is likely, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) National Mobiliser Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu is quoted in the press as saying conditions for a civil war exist. He argues that the soaring intolerance, state-insp ired intimidation and militarisation of politics would justify armed resistance in the country. That of course is political talk, but is Uganda likely to plunge into a civil war just because President Museveni gets a third term of office? The political tough talk by opposition leaders can only buy into this national anger, not that the political leaders wish to wage a war against the government.

This explains why all rebellions in central and western Uganda have been defeated because the political anger in these regions could not warrant popular support for rebellion. So, the question here is whether there is such anger across the nation as to warrant popular rebellion. Another point to militate against a successful civil war is the international trend of repugnance to civil wars. After the seemingly internationally sanctioned ouster of Mobutu in 1996, there has not been a successful guerrilla war in Africa.

Even the almost successful rebellion in Liberia was nipped in the bud and 'some arrangement' of concessions made, not to forget suppressed coups. So, to go to the bush, as Ugandans always call civil war, may not be the best means to get political power. But this is not to say that the possibility of a civil war is out of the question. Uganda has a tradition of a radical forward-leaning attitude to political affairs. Most of the political leadership in the country possess a military background or at least some basic military training attained during political education courses. With Uganda's background and civil strife it is easy for politicians to mobilise armed resistance against the government. Mugisha Muntu of the opposition FDC was recently quoted in the press as hinting at something that should be studied. He said, "If a politically disorganised group like LRA could bleed the army white for twenty years, it would be a different story if a politically credible group with military and political clarity led a rebellion".

However, all this will depend on how the government responds to legitimate political demands from opposition groups. The bitterness caused by the violence in the 2001 presidential and parliamentary elections has led to the hardening positions and the possible creation of militant youth groups. These groups would likely form the recruiting grounds for rebellion. Recent changes of government in the Central African Republic and Congo-Brazzaville where militias in the capital fight and defeat government forces is a scenario worth reviewing. So, the ball is entirely in the government's court.

My reasoning is that if President Museveni won in a free and fair election (forget about the opposition to Third Term), the prospect of winning the next elections would be enticing to the opposition. So, the biggest factor to mitigate for a civil war is the violence and election theft.

[Ugnet] Can 'Third Term' Plunge Uganda Into Civil War?

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