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Business Day (Johannesburg)
October 29, 2003
Posted to the web October 29, 2003
Jonathan Katzenellenbogen, International Affairs Editor
Johannesburg
Mounting violence between big Hutu factions, rival Tutsi parties edgy
BURUNDI could be on the verge of an outbreak of a new round of violence, despite the signing of the peace accord in Pretoria earlier this month, says Jan van Eck, a veteran mediator involved with the warring factions in the country.
Van Eck, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies who recently returned from a 10-day visit to the country, says there is mounting violence between the largest Hutu factions and growing nervousness among rival Tutsi parties.
SA has nearly 1400 troops in Burundi. The troops have a dual mandate of protecting returning politicians and guarding a cantonment area for the demobilisation of disarmed Hutu rebels.
The current Burundian conflict began in 1993 with the overthrow of the elected Hutu president, Melchior Ndadaye, four months after he came to power.
In the ensuing violence, tens of thousands of people were killed and hundreds of thousands fled to neighbouring countries, according to the United Nations. The conflict is part of wider HutuTutsi tension in the Great Lakes region.
In what was widely regarded as a triumph for Deputy President Jacob Zuma, the largest Hutu faction outside the cease-fire signed a cease-fire accord in Pretoria this month.
But the second largest Hutu armed faction, the National Forces of Liberation (FNL) led by Agathon Rwasa, remains outside the accord. Van Eck says the FNL is receiving mixed signals from the transitional government in the capital of Bujumbura about whether they are sincere about wanting a settlement.
Van Eck says the FNL is increasingly nervous about the possibility of the Burundian army and the rebel faction, Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD), as well as South African forces attacking them.
Earlier doubts about the FNL's military capability, says Van Eck, have been disproved by a seven-day mortar attack on the capital, which killed 300 people.
Van Eck says "two clear and opposing alliances are developing" in Burundi one made up of parties that signed the Arusha accord in 2000 and includes Hutu and Tutsi parties, and the other made up of parties that were excluded or refused to participate in the accord.
The second faction includes what Van Eck says are hardline Tutsi groupings and elements in the security forces who have doubts about the peace process.
He says this faction is making common cause with the FNL, a grouping outside the cease-fire.
Recent clashes between a faction of the CNDD led by Pierre Nkurunziza, which signed the Pretoria accord, and a CNDD-FDD wing led by Leonard Nyangoma, show that the Hutu rebel movements are realigning themselves.
Van Eck warns that if these two alliances follow different paths "the growing hostility and polarisation between them can only result in a final confrontation and more conflict".
Tutsi parties within the anti-Arusha alliance have not taken up arms so far, but could do if government repression continued, he warns. To avoid this, he says, the transitional government should open up the accord for renegotiation so that signatories develop greater ownership.
Van Eck says that to prevent a further hardening of positions a dialogue between the different alliances needs to be opened up as soon as possible.
Sticking points are the sharing out of positions in the army between factions and ethnic groups, and the question of who should receive amnesty.
Van Eck says the Burundian government should also be seen to be dealing with the issues of justice, truth, impunity and reconciliation key issues for the anti-Arusha alliance.
Requesting that an international commission of inquiry be appointed and deal with the matter some time in the future is not seen as dealing with the issue, says Van Eck.
These issues, he says, actively prevent the building of genuine trust among Burundians.
Further tension in Burundi is being created over the elections scheduled to take place in a year's time, says Van Eck.
Many Burundians feel that these should only take place once there is sufficient internal stability to ensure that they are fair.
A "rushed election" would not allow parties such as the CNDD-FDD to establish itself, he says.
Burundi's priority is to end the war, complete the peace process and develop an inclusive national consensus, says Van Eck. These are essential for the holding of elections, he says.
