thomas malloy wrote:
Taylor J. Smith wrote:
Hi Stephen,
Nice simulation; but human greed and stupidity, which are impossible
to over-estimate, are not
Personal reflections:
I hope they're right. Not sure that I do.
Does your calculation factor in an increase in the supply of oil
In reply to Stephen A. Lawrence's message of Fri, 25 Apr 2008 09:27:59 -0400:
Hi,
[snip]
The whole point of the exercise is that we seem to have reached the
world peak in oil production, and supply cannot be increased, due to
lack of resources.
[snip]
I think a better definition of the oil peak
Hi Stephen,
Nice simulation; but human greed and stupidity,
which are impossible to over-estimate, are not
factored in. The current oil price bubble, which
closely resembles the classic Dutch tulipmania,
will probably go they way of all bubbles, since
they depend on the 'greater fool'
On Thu, Apr 24, 2008 at 8:01 AM, Taylor J. Smith [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote
Of course, the bubble will continue if the U. S.
takes out the Iranian oil fields.
Targeting the oil fields would be less strategic than targeting the
only major refinery in Iran.
Terry
There turned out to be some issues with the analysis I did.
First, a brief bit of background which I left out: Elasticity of
demand is the percentage by which demand changes for a given
percentage change in the price. So, if elasticity is -1, then if the
price increases by 10%, the amount
In reply to Stephen A. Lawrence's message of Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:48:21 -0400:
Hi,
[snip]
The conclusion was that it was caused by the DOE pumping high grade
crude into the strategic reserve! Apparently their buy rate is high
Which would make perfect sense if they were planning on hitting Iran.
I know little about economics, but a commentator on NPR today noted the
following. Oil supplies are not as tight as they were, but the price of
gasoline in the U.S. continues to rise because the dollar is weak.
The dollar is weak for various reasons unrelated to energy, I gather. It is a
pain
Taylor J. Smith wrote:
Hi Stephen,
Nice simulation; but human greed and stupidity,
which are impossible to over-estimate, are not
Personal reflections:
I hope they're right. Not sure that I do.
Does your calculation factor in an increase in the supply of oil which
will result from
There's so much outright garbage on the Internet about the price of
oil, I decided to do a little crude modeling of my own to try to get a
handle on this. My conclusion is that, using a trivial model and
some simple historical values, it appears that oil may not get past
$150 in the next year.
From Stephen Lawrence
...
I was surprised -- I thought we were heading for the cliff a lot
faster than this, and $200/bbl oil next year was a no-brainer. But,
apparently not.
Impressive analysis.
Several weeks ago the Kiplinger Letter claimed that current commodity
prices are
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