The other day I wrote:
There are no permanent solutions in technology. Every invention carries in
it the seeds of obsolescence. If it works at all, it must eventually become
obsolete, because it works only because it fits in with the other machines,
processes, standards, customs and so on prevalent at this moment in history.
Thinking more about this . . .
What do model T Fords, dotmatrix and Daisy wheel printers have in common?
They were transitional technology. The model T had a very high suspension
and narrow high wheels. This was ideal for dirt roads and poorly paved
roads circa 1920. However the car proved so successful and sold in so many
millions that owners pressured local governments to pave the roads and
improve the road system with stop signs, traffic lights and so on. The
improved roads made the Model T obsolete. In other words, the very success
of this technology over 10 or 20 years made the product itself obsolete and
paved the way for better automobiles. ("Paved the way" in both the literal
and figurative sense.)
In the 1980s, when personal computers became popular, we used dotmatrix and
Daisy wheel printers. Neither was satisfactory. It was clear that something
better was needed, but those were the best options available at the time.
Personal computers succeeded in part because they allowed people to print
documents, replacing typewriters and word processors. Cheap, reliable
dotmatrix printers sped up the transition from typewriters and
minicomputers to personal computers. This created a market for a better
printer. Hewlett-Packard and others developed the LaserJet and later inkjet
printers that soon replaced dotmatrix printers. The dotmatrix printer
itself contributed to market trends and new technology that made dotmatrix
printers obsolete.
Bicycles played a similar role in the development of automobiles. In my
book, I quoted Hiram Maxim describing a classic example of this:
"It has been the habit to give the gasoline engine all the credit for
bringing in the automobile — in my opinion this is the wrong explanation.
We have had the steam engine for over a century. We could have built steam
vehicles in 1880, or indeed in 1870. But we did not. We waited until 1895.
The reason why we did not build road vehicles before this, in my opinion,
was because the bicycle had not yet come in numbers and had not directed
men’s minds to the possibilities of long distance travel over the ordinary
highway. We thought the railroad was good enough. The bicycle created a new
demand which went beyond the ability of the railroad to supply. Then it
came about that the bicycle could not satisfy the demand it had created. A
mechanically propelled vehicle was wanted instead of a foot propelled one,
and we know now that the automobile was the answer."
Many people have discussed the need for a self-sustaining commercial cold
fusion reactor. People feel that a reactor that plugs into the electric
mains is somehow cheating, or unfair, or "not cricket." They have urged
Rossi and Defkalion to develop a fully autonomous self-sustaining reactor.
People want this for two reasons: first, to prove beyond any doubt that the
reaction is real. Second, because it seems strange to use electricity to
power something that will eventually make mains electricity obsolete. The
latter is misguided, in my opinion. It is a good idea to use an obsolescent
technology to jumpstart a new replacement for that same technology. Why
not? It will take decades to make this transition. By the time mains
electricity actually disappears, the first generation cold fusion reactors
will be in museums, like the TRS-80 and Apple personal computers on display
in the Smithsonian.
During a transitional period in technology we often use a combination of
old and new in ways that decades later seem incongruous. Look at
photographs of early automobiles, computers and other technology and you
see a strange mixture of the future and the past. In photos from around
1910 you see military airplanes designed to be folded up and transported by
horse-drawn wagons. In the 1970s people used minicomputers to generate
large books full of greenbar paper, with things like open orders sorted in
different ways, by customer or order date. You would print a new book every
month, with a supplement every week, and leave it hanging in the corner of
the office. People who wanted to look up information would go to the book
and page through it. This seems like an odd way to do things but computer
video monitors were still expensive and the screens were small, so this was
cheaper. It was fast enough and much more convenient than using a paper
file cabinet.
In the late 1950s, IBM and American Airlines developed the SABRE online
airline reservation system based on the SAGE intercontinental ballistic
defense computer. It is not well known, but for five or 10 years before
that they spent a terrific amount of money developing a hybrid
electromechanical reservation system halfway between the old paperwork
system and the new upcoming computerized SABRE. This seems like an odd
thing to do but it was actually a wise use of money because it gave them an
opportunity to develop and try implementing some new techniques, rather
than jumping directly into the fully computerized SABRE.
It often happens that new technology prolongs the life of old machines, or
radically improves them in a final flowering, just before it becomes
obsolete and vanishes. A plug-in hybrid gasoline powered automobile is
certainly an example of this. It will not last long. Even if cold fusion
does not come along, surely improved batteries will eventually make fully
electric cars more practical than hybrids. But, for a few decades the
hybrid will be cost-effective and practical. The famous clipper ships of
the 1850s and 60s could only be built because steam powered tugboats became
available in New York, London and other major harbors. The extreme clipper
ships could not maneuver easily in these closed harbors. They had to be
taken out to open water by steam transport.
- Jed
