Re: Pakistan election (was Re: [ZION] War in Iraq)
"Marc A. Schindler" wrote: > I was wrong for the right reason. That should of course have read "right for the wrong reason." My point was that the islamicists are gaining control of Pakistan's parliamentary system, that this will increase pressure on the military government, which will not relinquish power willingly, and when the cork does pop, the US will have another group of 65-odd million upset at it for propping up the military regime in the first place. And they'll have the bomb, already tested. > They look placed to control either main party's coalition. The regional government >they won is in the Northwest Frontier, too -- as in Khyber Pass and Peshawar. Voter >turnout has been very poor, as most Pakistanis realize the election is a sham >(contrary to what Bush's press spokesman seems to think). This will just increase the >pressure on the > pressure cooker there. > > Mark Gregson wrote: > > > > > -- Marc -- > > I said they'd win a majority of the seats set aside for general election, and that >they have done, both in regional and in the national parliament. > > > > -- Me -- > > How have they won a majority of the seats set aside for general election? There >are 272 general seats. 60 are reserved for women and another 10 are reserved for >minority religious groups. That leaves 202 general sets. The fundamentalists have >apparently won 14 so far, of 40 reporting. That is not a majority of all the seats >and is not a majority of the seats reporting so far. > > > > = Mark Gregson [EMAIL PROTECTED] = > > > > > > -- > > __ > > > > Download the FREE Opera browser at www.opera.com/download/ > > > > Free OperaMail at http://www.operamail.com/ > > > > Powered by Outblaze > > > > / > > /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// > > /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// > > / > > > > -- > Marc A. Schindler > Spruce Grove, Alberta, Canada -- Gateway to the Boreal Parkland > > "The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling >short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." > --Michelangelo Buonarroti > > Note: This communication represents the informal personal views of the author >solely; its contents do not necessarily reflect those of the authors employer, nor >those of any organization with which the author may be associated. > > / > /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// > /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// > / > -- Marc A. Schindler Spruce Grove, Alberta, Canada -- Gateway to the Boreal Parkland "The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." --Michelangelo Buonarroti Note: This communication represents the informal personal views of the author solely; its contents do not necessarily reflect those of the authors employer, nor those of any organization with which the author may be associated. / /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// / ==^^=== This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?aaP9AU.bWix1n Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^^===
Re: Pakistan election (was Re: [ZION] War in Iraq)
I was wrong for the right reason. They look placed to control either main party's coalition. The regional government they won is in the Northwest Frontier, too -- as in Khyber Pass and Peshawar. Voter turnout has been very poor, as most Pakistanis realize the election is a sham (contrary to what Bush's press spokesman seems to think). This will just increase the pressure on the pressure cooker there. Mark Gregson wrote: > > -- Marc -- > I said they'd win a majority of the seats set aside for general election, and that >they have done, both in regional and in the national parliament. > > -- Me -- > How have they won a majority of the seats set aside for general election? There are >272 general seats. 60 are reserved for women and another 10 are reserved for >minority religious groups. That leaves 202 general sets. The fundamentalists have >apparently won 14 so far, of 40 reporting. That is not a majority of all the seats >and is not a majority of the seats reporting so far. > > = Mark Gregson [EMAIL PROTECTED] = > > > -- > __ > > Download the FREE Opera browser at www.opera.com/download/ > > Free OperaMail at http://www.operamail.com/ > > Powered by Outblaze > > / > /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// > /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// > / > -- Marc A. Schindler Spruce Grove, Alberta, Canada -- Gateway to the Boreal Parkland "The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." --Michelangelo Buonarroti Note: This communication represents the informal personal views of the author solely; its contents do not necessarily reflect those of the authors employer, nor those of any organization with which the author may be associated. / /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// / ==^^=== This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?aaP9AU.bWix1n Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^^===
Re: Pakistan election (was Re: [ZION] War in Iraq)
-- Marc -- I said they'd win a majority of the seats set aside for general election, and that they have done, both in regional and in the national parliament. -- Me -- How have they won a majority of the seats set aside for general election? There are 272 general seats. 60 are reserved for women and another 10 are reserved for minority religious groups. That leaves 202 general sets. The fundamentalists have apparently won 14 so far, of 40 reporting. That is not a majority of all the seats and is not a majority of the seats reporting so far. = Mark Gregson [EMAIL PROTECTED] = -- __ Download the FREE Opera browser at www.opera.com/download/ Free OperaMail at http://www.operamail.com/ Powered by Outblaze / /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// / ==^ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?aaP9AU.bWix1n Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^
Re: Pakistan election (was Re: [ZION] War in Iraq)
Mark Gregson wrote: > > > The first of my "prognostications" has come true: Islamic > > fundamentalists have won the Pakistani election: > > No, fundamentalists have not won the election. Read the whole article and then read >some other news reports. Fundamentalists have not won the election and will not >control the government. > I said they'd win a majority of the seats set aside for general election, and that they have done, both in regional and in the national parliament. But I also said it wouldn't make any difference because Mussharaf is still the military dictator and has the power to dismiss the PM and parliament. This just increases the pressure on the situation, which was my point. In any case, let's go through the article point by point: 1. "A coalition of pro-Taliban parties won control of a provincial legislature near the Afghan border Friday, the first solid results from Pakistan's election. Vote counting for the national parliament was moving slowly." This is one of four regional parliaments which includes the Northwest Frontier, a Taliban stronghold. 2. "For the first time since a 1999 coup, Pakistanis voted Thursday in elections the military government hailed as a historic return to democratic rule and the opposition denounced as a stage-managed sleight of hand to mask resident Gen. Pervez Musharraf's firm grip on power.." Both Pakistan and the US are portraying this as a transition to democracy. Some (and I'm one of them) believe it will not lead in the short run to Musharraf's fall (although eventually it will, but some other things have to happen first). 3. "Musharraf - an important U.S. ally in the war on terrorism - has created a military-controlled National Security Council that will vet all national policy decisions. He has also granted himself the power to sack the prime minister and dissolve parliament, rendering the vote little more than window-dressing for continued military rule." As above. 4. I predicted that Islamic fundamentalists would gain control over the national parliament in Islamabad. I had in mind a majority of those seats available for it to run for. That hasn't quite happened, but they are going to play a pivotal role, controlling whatever ruling coalition wins, so I think I'm right for the wrong reason (and in any case this represents an increase in fundamentalist support): "The religious parties also were surprisingly strong in the National Assembly, Pakistan's lawmaking lower house of Parliament. With returns trickling in, the religious alliance looked like it could emerge as a key partner in any coalition government in the center." 5. The situation as of last night in Islamabad: "But vote counting for the National Assembly was slow and by early Friday only 40 of the 272 general seats in the federal Parliament were confirmed. Of those, the religious alliance already had 14 seats, including one in the federal capital of Islamabad." I haven't even looked at the Globe this morning. > > My prediction: when vote counting is complete the fundamentalists will not have the >swing votes. (Not that it would matter if they did, since Musharraf has veto power >and dismissal power, too ). > > > When the military dictatorship there falls, we will be facing an Islamic > > fundamentalist nuclear power. > > Why are you so sure that the dictatorship will fall? It's in a semi-transitional >phase right now, so by definition it cannot actually fall. > I don't see it transitioning in the least. > > = Mark Gregson [EMAIL PROTECTED] = > > > -- > __ > > Download the FREE Opera browser at www.opera.com/download/ > > Free OperaMail at http://www.operamail.com/ > > Powered by Outblaze > > / > /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// > /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// > / > -- Marc A. Schindler Spruce Grove, Alberta, Canada -- Gateway to the Boreal Parkland "The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." --Michelangelo Buonarroti Note: This communication represents the informal personal views of the author solely; its contents do not necessarily reflect those of the authors employer, nor those of any organization with which the author may be associated. / /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// / ==^^=== This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?aaP9AU.bWix1n Or send an
Pakistan election (was Re: [ZION] War in Iraq)
> The first of my "prognostications" has come true: Islamic > fundamentalists have won the Pakistani election: No, fundamentalists have not won the election. Read the whole article and then read some other news reports. Fundamentalists have not won the election and will not control the government. My prediction: when vote counting is complete the fundamentalists will not have the swing votes. (Not that it would matter if they did, since Musharraf has veto power and dismissal power, too ). > When the military dictatorship there falls, we will be facing an Islamic > fundamentalist nuclear power. Why are you so sure that the dictatorship will fall? It's in a semi-transitional phase right now, so by definition it cannot actually fall. = Mark Gregson [EMAIL PROTECTED] = -- __ Download the FREE Opera browser at www.opera.com/download/ Free OperaMail at http://www.operamail.com/ Powered by Outblaze / /// ZION LIST CHARTER: Please read it at /// /// http://www.zionsbest.com/charter.html /// / ==^ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?aaP9AU.bWix1n Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^
