The Gas "Deal": Ukraine Says It Can Pay. Can it Really?
Ukraine claims it has promises of financial help from the EU and IMF but there is nothing in writing 6 hours ago Alexander Mercouris <http://russia-insider.com/user/92> | 1442 4 <http://russia-insider.com/en/ukraine_business/2014/11/01/12-34-37pm/gas_deal_ukraine_says_it_can_pay_can_it_really#disqus_thread> The last time Russia turned off Ukraine's gas, the Ukraine stole it from the Europeans It has taken only a few hours for the Russians and the Ukrainians to quarrel about the agreement that came out of the gas talks on Thursday. The Ukrainians say it is legally binding. The Russians say it is not. The Russians are right. The Ukrainian published a statement that set out the terms of the Protocol (reproduced here <http://rbth.com/news/2014/10/31/kiev_publishes_text_of_trilateral_gas_protocol_41086.html> ). This says the Protocol is “without prejudice” to the claims being made in a case Ukraine has brought against Russia in the Stockholm Arbitration Court. What this means is that the Protocol is not a legally binding agreement or contract. It is simply a temporary arrangement between the Ukrainians and the Russians until the final decision is made in the case at the end of 2015. The Protocol settles little. It is simply Ukraine’s written acceptance of an offer to buy gas at a discounted price the Russians made as far back as June. The price now is a little lower than it was in June. This is not because the Russians have changed their offer. It is because the price of gas is linked to the price of oil, the price of which has fallen since June. The Ukrainians have been in a position to buy gas under this offer ever since the Russians made it in June. They didn’t do so because they rejected the offer. They have now accepted it. The Russian offer however comes with conditions. Ukraine gets no gas unless it pays for it in advance and unless it pays its gas debt, which the Russians have reduced from $5.5 billion to $4.5 billion. The Protocol commits Ukraine to pay $3 billion this year to partly clear its debt. This is to be paid in two instalments. One instalment is to be paid in November. The second is to be paid by the end of December. Ukraine must also pay for any gas it wants in advance. Ukraine has $3 billion. That is enough to pay the two instalments. Ukraine needs more money to pay in advance for gas for this year. The Russians estimate the total cost of this is $760 million. The Protocol doesn’t say where that money is coming from. The Ukrainians say the Europeans and the IMF have promised help with it. The Protocol however says nothing about it. Supposedly the promise is in a side letter the EU is giving Ukraine. This letter, if it exists, has not been made public. Since we do not know what promises the Europeans and the IMF have actually given Ukraine, we cannot say for sure Ukraine will have the money to pay both the two instalments and for the gas it needs this year. If there isn’t enough money to do all three, the gas stops. http://russia-insider.com/en/ukraine_business/2014/11/01/12-34-37pm/gas_deal_ukraine_says_it_can_pay_can_it_really?page=0%2C1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook --- This email is free from viruses and malware because avast! Antivirus protection is active. http://www.avast.com -- Ову поруку сте добили зато што сте пријављени на Google групу „SERBIAN NEWS NETWORK“. Да бисте отказали пријаву у ову групу и престали да примате имејлове од ње, пошаљите имејл на [email protected]. Да бисте постављали у овој групи, пошаљите е-поруку на [email protected]. Посетите ову групу на http://groups.google.com/group/senet. За више опција посетите https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
