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Twilight of First Trump Term Gives Hope of Solving Balkan Puzzle - BNN Bloomberg


Jasmina Kuzmanovic and Misha Savic

5-7 minutes

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BC-Twilight-of-First-Trump-Term-Gives-Hope-of-Solving-Balkan-Puzzle , Jasmina 
Kuzmanovic and Misha Savic

(Bloomberg) -- As U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term draws to a close, a 
White House meeting this week on Kosovo may be Serbia’s best chance to secure 
an advantage in resolving one of Europe’s most enduring puzzles.

The conflict resulting from a war two decades ago and Kosovo’s declaration of 
independence from Serbia in 2008 is no closer to resolution despite years of 
struggle to find an agreement at the negotiating table. Kosovo is demanding 
recognition as a sovereign state, which Serbia refuses to give.

After mediating a deal to establish ties between Israel and the United Arab 
Emirates last month, the Trump administration is trying to rack up another win 
before the November U.S. election, inviting Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic 
and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti to the White House on Thursday.

Belgrade is hoping that Trump, who has sought to shift the U.S. position on 
Balkan conflicts away from those of the Clinton era when NATO bombed the Serbs 
in the 1990s, may be able to put enough pressure to force a deal more in line 
with its wishes. While Trump’s envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Richard Grenell has 
said the meeting will focus on economic ties, hopes are high in the Balkans 
that Trump may make an appearance.

“This president is more inclined toward Serbia than any previous president of 
the U.S.,” Vucic told reporters in Belgrade last week. “We still don’t know 
what the agenda will be, except that we should talk about the economy. But the 
possibility that Mr. Trump may be present indicates there may be some other 
ideas as well.”

The chance of a breakthrough is slim, and the initiative from Washington has 
irked the European Union, which is mediating talks between the Balkan neighbors 
and says U.S. efforts are aimed at scoring a quick diplomatic victory rather 
than resolving the dispute. An earlier White House meeting was scrapped when 
Kosovar President Hashim Thaci was accused of war crimes, including nearly 100 
murders, that he denies.

A special adviser to Trump, who asked not to be identified discussing internal 
deliberations, said Thursday’s talks would focus on three earlier agreements on 
establishing rail, road and air links between Serbia and Kosovo that have yet 
to go into effect. After years of political deadlock, the U.S. wants to test 
whether better economic links will lead to a breakthrough later on, the adviser 
said.

The adviser said Trump hadn’t yet decided whether to participate. The 
president’s decision will likely depend on how much progress is made Thursday.

A deal that normalizes ties is crucial for both Serbia and Kosovo to progress 
on the path toward EU membership, which they hope can end decades of economic 
underperformance and the exodus of millions of their citizens in search of 
better lives in richer countries.

At the heart of the dispute for Serbia is that recognizing Kosovo’s sovereignty 
would cause it to abandon its claim on monasteries and other sites that make up 
the historical heritage of to the powerful Serbian Orthodox Church. It would 
also cede influence over 100,000 ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, where most of the 1.8 
million population is ethnic-Albanian.

That makes a straight-forward split a political non-starter for Vucic, who 
contends Serbia must receive something in return. He has called for autonomy to 
be granted to a northern ethnic-Serb region, which would effectively put it 
under Belgrade’s control.

Kosovo Premier Hoti has ruled out any territorial concession to Serbia. The EU 
has also rejected any redrawing of borders.

But Kosovo’s position is weaker now that Thaci is sidelined by the war-crimes 
accusations and Hoti is less popular than an incumbent premier he replaced in 
June. By comparison, Vucic’s ruling party won a landslide election victory in 
June.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Belgrade William Montgomery said Vucic is right to 
press Serbia’s case now with Trump in office given the possibility the U.S. 
leader could lose the November election.

“Vucic should act now or lose, possibly forever, a chance to resolve the 
issue,” he said.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

 

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