washingtonexaminer.com <https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/montenegro-is-center-stage-in-ba lkan-conflict>
Montenegro is center stage in Balkan conflict by Janusz Bugajski | March 10, 2021 07:46 AM 5-6 minutes _____ The struggle between Western powers and Russia over the Balkan Peninsula is heating up, with a predatory China seeking to benefit from the turmoil. The new government in Montenegro, established in December 2020, was viewed in Western capitals as a fresh start to eliminate corruption and enable Montenegro to make faster progress toward EU membership. Instead, the new administration has become increasingly vulnerable to Moscow's agenda. The Kremlin views the Balkans as a strategic asset and a stepping stone to the Adriatic and Mediterranean. It seeks to preclude Western unity and undermine the role of multinational organizations. Fomenting conflict in Montenegro not only contributes to unsettling the region, it also provides an opportunity to subvert a new NATO state and discredit the alliance for other prospective members. The Kremlin is benefiting from the nonacceptance of Montenegro's national identity and independent statehood by the Serbian government. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is scheming for a Serbia-Montenegro Union, modeled on Putin's drive for a Russia-Belarus Union, with Montenegro as the junior partner. The strongest political force in Montenegro's coalition government, the Democratic Front, is committed to reversing the country's independence and collaborates with Belgrade to forge tighter links with Serbia. The Russian connection with the new government is becoming clearer. Montenegro's appeals court has revoked the sentences of militants who sought to overthrow the Montenegrin government after the October 2016 elections under the direction of Russian intelligence services. In essence, this was a failed attempt to disqualify Montenegro from NATO membership by generating chaos and violence. Montenegro's security sector also remains prone to Moscow's penetration. Milan Knezevic, leader of the Democratic Front and involved in the 2016 coup plot, was appointed chairman of parliament's Security and Defense Committee. Other security appointments appear to be coordinated with Belgrade and Moscow. Serbia and Russia are also targeting Montenegro's strategic assets, including plans to purchase the port of Bar and the country's electric company. The Kremlin campaigns to keep all states out of the alliance and thereby reduce American influence. Where it fails to prevent enlargement, it intensifies efforts to weaken NATO from within. Its growing presence in Hungary and Bulgaria demonstrates how Russian officials strive to undermine the cohesion of the Western alliance. Joining NATO strengthens state security but it does not ensure immunity from foreign political and economic leverage against alliance interests. China also plays a valuable role for Russia in the Balkans by sabotaging democratic development in pursuit of regional economic dependence through debt traps and infrastructure takeovers. To boost its political influence, the Kremlin favors unresolved conflicts and disputed states in the Balkans. It helps the autonomist government in Bosnia's Serb entity to keep the country divided and encourages Bosnian Croats to push for a third territorial unit. In Kosovo, which Russia blocks from U.N. membership, the Serbian minority is exploited to fan internal conflicts. North Macedonia's domestic turmoil and its obstructed path toward the Euuropean Union has also been exploited by Moscow. Montenegro presents another opportunity for destabilization, in which the media, two Russian intelligence services, and the Russian Orthodox Church can assist their Serbian counterparts to challenge Montenegro's independence. Although the Biden administration has more immediate foreign policy priorities, neglecting simmering conflicts in the Balkans can have devastating consequences, as the wars in the 1990s demonstrated. Moreover, by thwarting Russia and China in the Balkans, Washington can send a powerful signal that the ambitions of both anti-American protagonists will be confronted on a global scale. Such an approach can also generate bipartisan support in Congress. An effective policy would counteract pannational projects that threaten the independence of any Balkan state. The most destabilizing hazard is Vucic's pan-Serbianism, which weakens the statehood of Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo. A three-pronged approach is needed. First, the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue can be intensified in line with Biden's recent letter to Vucic calling for mutual state recognition. Second, a multinational initiative should be launched to implement essential constitutional changes in Bosnia-Herzegovina to develop a fully functioning state. And third, Vucic must be warned that interference in Montenegro's politics will rebound negatively against Serbia's progress toward Western institutions, especially as Belgrade continues to collaborate with both Russia and China. Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia <https://jamestown.org/product/eurasian-disunion-russias-vulnerable-flanks/> 's Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His forthcoming book is "Failed State: Planning for Russia's Rupture." -- http:www.antic.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "SERBIAN NEWS NETWORK" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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