worldpoliticsreview.com <https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24919/it-s-too-early-to-call-greece-and-macedonia-s-name-agreement-a-done-deal>
It’s Too Early to Call Greece and Macedonia’s Name Agreement a Done Deal 7-9 minutes _____ What many have long viewed as one of the most ridiculous disputes in international politics may finally come to an end, thanks to an agreement reached last week. Following months of quiet negotiations with neighboring Greece, Macedonia announced it will change its name. If all goes to plan, by the end of the year, the country will cease to be the Republic of Macedonia or the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as it is officially known at the United Nations. Instead, it will become the Republic of North Macedonia. The name issue emerged with the collapse of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. When the southernmost republic of the Yugoslav federation became independent, in September 1991, it did so as the Republic of Macedonia. This prompted a nationalist backlash in Greece, which argued that the new state was not only laying claim to its northern province of Macedonia, but was also appropriating its cultural heritage. Following pressure from Athens and its partners in the European Union, Macedonia was admitted to the United Nations under a provisional name—the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, with the preposterous acronym FYROM—until a new name could be agreed through U.N.-sponsored negotiations. In 1995, the two countries signed an interim accord. In return for Skopje explicitly renouncing any claim to the territory or cultural heritage of Greece, Athens agreed that it would not block the country’s membership in international organizations under the provisional name. But in the years since then, neither side has stuck to the deal. Greece has prevented Macedonia from joining NATO and has vetoed its opening talks to join the EU. Macedonia has retaliated by antagonizing the Greeks as best it can. In addition to naming its main airport and highway after Alexander the Great, Macedonia has transformed its capital into what can perhaps be best be described as some sort of neo-Hellenistic theme park <https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/02/04/582506402/for-two-countries-the-dispute-over-macedonias-name-is-rooted-in-national-identit> . All this has harmed both countries. Greece’s reputation has taken a beating on the world stage, its behavior over the name issue widely seen as petty and vindictive. In Macedonia, the effects have been far more serious. The nationalist government that was in power in Skopje until the middle of last year exploited the name issue as a welcome distraction while it plundered the state mercilessly. That government’s downfall proved to be the turning point. The new administration in Macedonia quickly made it clear that it wanted a solution so that it could concentrate on EU accession. Likewise, the Greek government indicated it was keen to see the matter settled at long last. In recent months, rumors circulated that the two countries were edging closer to an agreement and had settled on a shortlist of five names: New Macedonia, Upper Macedonia, Vardar Macedonia, Macedonia (Skopje), and the one that was eventually chosen: North Macedonia (not Northern Macedonia). The deal is the best chance for Macedonians to put an end to a dispute that has helped keep their country poor and isolated for three decades. The deal has also settled two other crucial elements around the name issue. The first concerns the adjective of the country. While many Macedonians were willing to change the name of their state, they were adamantly opposed to changing their identity, or renaming their language, to North Macedonian. The second issue related to the circumstances in which the new name would be used. Macedonians wanted to keep Republic of Macedonia for internal use, or even continue to use it with countries that had already recognized it as such. Greece was adamant that any new name would have to be used in all circumstances. In the end, the two sides reached a reasonable compromise. The Republic of North Macedonia will be used in all circumstances. However, the people will be Macedonians—or citizens of North Macedonia—and their language will remain Macedonian. The announcement has been warmly welcomed abroad. Aside from the fact that it will hopefully settle a troublesome bilateral dispute in southeastern Europe that has lingered for almost 30 years, it will also open the way for Macedonia to finally join NATO. More importantly, it should also pave the way for the start of talks to join the EU. All this should also help to stabilize the Western Balkans, which remains a source of concern for many Western policymakers. However, all this can only happen if both countries follow through and enact the agreement. As things stand, the biggest concern lies in Macedonia. Although the agreement has already been ratified by parliament <https://www.rferl.org/a/macedonia-s-zaev-defends-name-deal-in-parliament-ahead-of-ratification-vote/29306376.html> —by a vote of 69-0 after the main opposition party boycotted the session—President Gjorge Ivanov has said that he will not sign the law. That means parliament must vote again in order to override his veto. A bigger problem is that the Macedonian Constitution will then need to be amended, which requires two-thirds support of parliament. The main opposition party, the hard-line, nationalist VMRO-DPMNE that controls 50 of parliament’s 120 seats and the presidency, adamantly opposes an amendment. A referendum will also need to be held. Although it is expected to pass, that certainly cannot be taken for granted. Once the agreement has been finalized by Macedonia, and the constitutional changes made, it will then need to be ratified by Greece. As things stand, the deal seems likely to pass there. Syriza, the left-wing party that leads the government in Athens, currently has 145 of the Greek parliament’s 300 seats. And while its junior coalition partner, the avowedly nationalist Independent Greeks party, has said it will vote against the deal, the agreement is expected to gain support from enough MPs from other left-wing parties to see it through. Yet a potential problem looms. Although parliamentary elections are not due in Greece until October 2019, there has been repeated talk of a vote later this year. If the Macedonia agreement is not sealed before Greek elections, there are fears that any new right-wing government in Athens may try to rescind it. One thing is sure to happen in the meantime that could yet help ease the agreement’s passage in Macedonia. As soon as the deal is ratified by the Macedonian parliament, and before the constitutional changes are made, the agreement stipulates that Greece will lift its opposition to the country’s NATO membership and the start of EU accession talks. That could even happen within weeks, in the best-case scenario. Both steps may yet help Macedonians to see that the agreement, while not particularly popular, is nevertheless their best chance to put an end to a dispute that has helped keep their country poor and isolated for the past three decades. If Macedonians then agree to the constitutional changes, the opposition may find it harder to oppose what would essentially be all but a done deal. James Ker-Lindsay is a senior visiting fellow at LSEE, the center for research on Southeastern Europe at the London School of Economics and Political Science. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "serbia" group. 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