bloomberg.com 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-17/serbia-and-kosovo-are-preparing-to-lay-wartime-disputes-to-rest>
  


Serbia and Kosovo Are Preparing to Lay Wartime Disputes to Rest


By Andrea Dudik and Marc Champion

7-9 minutes

  _____  



Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

When U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May flew to China last February looking for 
business deals to cushion the fallout from Brexit, Huawei Technologies Co. 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/0314367D:US>  delivered with a 
multibillion-dollar commitment to help keep Britain “at the very forefront of 
the digital age.”

A year later, the U.K. is among European nations weighing 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-15/spy-chief-says-outright-huawei-ban-might-not-be-right-for-u-k>
  restrictions on the Chinese tech giant that phone carriers say 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/PMYRF16K50XS>  could delay the 
fifth-generation mobile networks needed to connect driverless cars and 
automated factories.

Their lobbying exposes a weakness: Europe hasn’t been at the forefront on 5G, 
even before the Trump administration began pushing 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-31/don-t-let-china-control-your-networks-u-s-envoy-tells-europe>
  allies to block Huawei over concerns that the Chinese government could use 
its equipment for spying, which the company has repeatedly denied.

“The risk is that it puts Europe further behind the curve,” said Neil Campling, 
an analyst at Mirabaud Securities in London.

Read about how Europe’s been hit by crossfire in the tech war’s key battle 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-16/huawei-fight-sees-eu-caught-in-crossfire-at-center-of-tech-fight>
 

While Europe led the way with earlier mobile technologies, China, South Korea, 
Japan and -- to a lesser extent -- the U.S., are ahead on the next rollouts.


5G Race


China's on track for more 5G subscribers than Western Europe, U.S combined

Source: Ovum

Despite beating the drum for 5G, which promises gigabit-per-second download 
speeds -- 10 times faster than 4G and at a lower cost to carriers -- European 
telecom executives are expected to be relatively slow 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-28/european-telcos-are-paying-the-most-on-planet-for-5g-here-s-why>
  to invest for fear the spending won’t pay off for a long time.

European carriers are generally less profitable and regulators have blocked 
mergers that would allow a patchwork of operators to scale up. The spectrum 
needed for 5G hasn’t all been assigned yet and governments are set to tap them 
for billions of euros at auctions 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-02/italy-is-said-to-fetch-about-7-5-billion-in-5g-airwaves-auction>
  in the coming year.

Huawei is deeply embedded in Europe’s telecom networks, so restrictions could 
be more disruptive than in other places. In the U.S., the industry has 
generally avoided Huawei under government pressure. The Chinese government, far 
from limiting its telecom vendors facing global scrutiny, may dictate a faster 
5G deployment to back Huawei and ZTE Corp., analysts at New Street Research 
said last month.

“The U.S. and China are actually in a good place, because one has never allowed 
Huawei and one is agnostic to it,” said Guy Peddy, an analyst at Macquarie.

Huawei has come from almost nowhere in Europe a decade ago to supply about a 
third of telecom systems. It’s positioned itself to be a critical provider of 
antennas, switches, routers, small cells and network slicing gear for 5G by 
conducting trials with carriers. The company has been helped by security 
agencies that opened the door while closely monitoring its equipment.

That cautious acceptance is now in question as governments realize how hard it 
will be to police 5G. With 4G networks, data is usually channeled through a 
central core, or “brain,” whereas in 5G, it will be processed and sent between 
multiple points in a more scattered arrangement that could make it harder to 
spot weaknesses and hacks.

Read more on why 5G phones are stirring concerns about Huawei 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/why-5g-phones-are-new-focus-of-freakouts-about-huawei-quicktake>
 

To avoid bans on Huawei, telecom executives are suggesting software fixes, 
tighter monitoring and excluding its gear from sensitive parts of their 
networks. Since Britain raised issues with Huawei’s equipment last July, BT 
Group Plc has highlighted its policy of keeping the company out of its wireless 
core -- including a program to rip out and replace pieces of the EE network it 
acquired in 2016. Vodafone Group Plc last month said it had paused buying 
Huawei core gear.

Read more about U.K. concerns with Huawei’s equipment here 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/u-k-said-to-double-down-criticism-of-huawei-s-flawed-systems>
 


Too Many Carriers?


Europe’s phone companies operate in a crowded market

Source: Company reports

In Germany, one idea considered last month at a meeting of network operators 
and government officials was to give state security full access to the source 
code of suppliers including Huawei, Ericsson AB and Cisco Systems Inc., 
according to a person briefed on a meeting, who asked not to be identified as 
the deliberations were private.

If the oversight proposals fail and Huawei is banned from 5G, Deutsche Telekom 
is predicting 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/deutsche-telekom-is-said-to-warn-huawei-ban-would-hurt-europe-5g>
  a two-year delay, according to an internal paper written in recent weeks. A 
person at another major European phone company, asking not to be identified, 
said barring Huawei would delay its 5G launch by 18 months.

With the outlook murky, carriers in the region don’t appear ready to abandon 
Huawei. BT is ramping up building its 5G network assuming Huawei will be 
involved, while studying contingency options that could include relying more on 
other suppliers, said a person involved in the planning. A spokeswoman for BT 
declined to comment.


Made in China


Chinese wireless technology is winning in Europe, the Middle East and Africa

Source: IHS Markit

One concern is the testing and costs tied to making 5G gear from Huawei’s 
European rivals Nokia Oyj and Ericsson compatible with its 4G kit. Carriers 
also see Ericsson and Nokia as being about a year behind on 5G product 
development, said Macquarie’s Peddy.

Nokia and Ericsson say 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-17/ericsson-says-huawei-ban-wouldn-t-deprive-europe-of-5g-equipment>
  Huawei doesn’t have a product edge and that they both are already deploying 
5G equipment. Ericsson Chief Executive Officer Borje Ekholm, in a blog post 
<https://www.ericsson.com/en/blog/2019/2/Ekholm-5G-deployment-Europe-security> 
, said Europe isn’t moving as quickly as other markets because of the lack of 
spectrum, high spectrum fees and heavy regulation. Eric Mangan, a Nokia 
spokesman, said the Finnish company can upgrade 4G equipment from any vendor to 
5G.

The nightmare scenario for phone companies would be if they have to remove 
existing Huawei 4G gear. While some analysts see that as unlikely, Deutsche 
Telekom has flagged the risk: In its internal note, it put the cost of a 
retroactive ban at many billions of euros.

That “would seriously disrupt the whole mobile ecosystem,” Stockholm-based 
consultant Bengt Nordstrom said in an interview.

— With assistance by Angelina Rascouet, and Niclas Rolander

 

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