I had similar questions about how Berkshire Hathaway can have never paid a Dividend, but still be worth so much. Or why Blackberry was worth less than the cash it had in the bank at one point. I think I get why now, but I am still a little skeptical this isn't a giant scam perpetrated on us all (but less and less skeptical to be fair).
Valuations are based on lots of things, the relevant one in this case being the revenue total that investors expect a company to eventually earn. As a (I hope) non-controversial example, a horse shoe manufacturing company could have had record profits circa 1900, but have seen its share price start to decline as the inevitability of cars - and the subsequent lessened demand for horse shoes - hit its value. Record profits, tumbling share value seems at odds with the ways the system should work, but I think we can all agree a horse shoe manufacturing company circa 1900 was in dire need of a pivot! Similarly, Blackberry had billions in the bank (Can't find a source, but here is the one for HTC http://www.androidcentral.com/htcs-stock-has-fallen-point-investors-think-companys-near-worthless), but investors knew that they would spend that trying to regain marketshare that, while not necessarily lost at that point, they were going to inevitably lose to competing smartphone makers. That was reflected in the share price. Profit is merely (!!!) revenue - costs, and while maximising profit is the end game, minimising costs usually slows revenue growth. A company has to decide how much headroom there is for growth, and how much of the revenue is best invested in growth - in things like infrastructure, staffing, marketing etc - and how much is better taken as profit. In essence, that is what Buffett has done - made the bet that Berkshire Hathaway can invest the money more efficiently for growth than can shareholders, and have historically had results that back that up. Back to the question, the market decided that the profit Atlassian makes is of secondary concern, and their growth is the key metric driving value. These valuations don't last forever, and their valuation be based on revenue growth not profit until the instant it isn't (see Twitter). The expected revenue when they decide to slow growth, and are then kinda forced to minimise costs to maximise profit, is likely a ways away, and until then, it seems the market agrees it is smart for Atlassian to reinvest money to grow the business, rather than maximising profit. Cheers, Michael Motherwell Phone: (02) 8006 9176 Mobile: (0421) 423 213 Fax: (02) 8088 7499 Email: [email protected] On 11 November 2015 at 08:24, Alex North <[email protected]> wrote: > > http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2014/9/4/why-amazon-has-no-profits-and-why-it-works > > On Wed, 11 Nov 2015 at 08:16 Chris Were <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I understand where you're coming from, but just look at that efficiency! >> >> http://tomtunguz.com/atlassian-s-1/ >> >> Sent from my phone >> >> On 11 Nov 2015, at 1:11 am, Dean Collins <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Can someone explain to me how Atalassian is worth $3.5b when it only made >> $6m profit last year? >> >> >> >> >> http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/investors-look-past-dual-stock-structure-in-atlassian-float-20151110-gkv47r.html >> >> >> >> I mean seriously folks....we are getting beyond a joke here. >> >> >> >> >> >> Regards, >> >> >> >> Dean Collins >> Cognation Inc >> [email protected] >> +1-212-203-4357 New York >> +61-2-9016-5642 (Sydney in-dial). >> +44-20-3129-6001 (London in-dial). >> >> >> >> -- >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Silicon Beach >> Australia mailing list. 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