For Bay Area silk-listers. Sounds like an interesting talk. I am planning to go.
Thaths ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Stewart Brand <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Jan 22, 2007 11:27 AM Subject: [SALT] Why we believe the wrong forecasters, FRIDAY, Jan 26 (for forwarding) To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Why are so many famous experts so routinely wrong, and yet people still listen to them? Who really is worth listening to about the future? Philip Tetlock, the author of EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGEMENT, builds on Isaiah Berlin's characterization of judgement modes into Hedgehogs (who know one big thing) and Foxes (who know many things). Hedgehogs don't notice and don't care when they're wrong, and they know their one story very well; that's why they're so compelling. Foxes learn. "Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters than Hedgehogs" Philip Tetlock, Cowell Theater, Fort Mason, San Francisco, 7pm, Friday, January 26. The lecture starts promptly at 7:30pm. Admission is free (a $10 donation is always welcome, not required). Phil Tetlock is Professor of Organizational Behavior and Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley. For his book on expert judgement he cruelly researched the actual success rate of pundits in excruciating detail and at career length. This is one of a monthly series of Seminars About Long-term Thinking organized by The Long Now Foundation. All previous talks are available for download from the final link in this note. If you would like to be notified by email of forthcoming talks, please contact Simone Davalos--- [EMAIL PROTECTED], 415-561-6582--- or go to: http://list.longnow.org/mailman/listinfo/SALT . Talks coming up: Feb. 15 - Vernor Vinge, "Thinking Long Through Science Fiction" Mar. 9 - Brian Fagan, "We Are Not the First to Suffer Through Climate Change" Apr. 27 - Frans Lanting, "Life's Journey Through Time" May 11 - Steven Johnson, "The Long Zoom" June 8 - Paul Hawken, "The New Great Transformation" Oct. 12 - Juan Enriquez, "Mapping the Frontier of Knowledge" Nov. 9 - Rosabeth Moss Kanter, "Enduring Principles for Changing Times" You are welcome to forward this note to anyone you think might be interested. --Stewart Brand -- Stewart Brand -- [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Long Now Foundation - http://www.longnow.org Seminars & downloads: http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/ -- Homer: He has all the money in the world, but there's one thing he can't buy. Marge: What's that? Homer: (pause) A dinosaur. -- Homer J. Simpson Sudhakar Chandra Slacker Without Borders
