Can someone with academic access get this paper?
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/tandf/teta/
2006/00000018/00000002/art00007
Belief revision, a process in which one revises one's current belief
in the light of new information, is an essential component of human
abductive reasoning. The order effect, a phenomenon in which the
final belief is significantly affected by the temporal order of
information presentation, is a robust empirical finding that is not
compatible with normative theories such as Bayes' theorem. In this
article we explore, both empirically and computationally, how and why
the order effect occurs. Both a tactical abductive reasoning task and
a learning paradigm (the UECHO model) show that although a recency
effect occurs at the beginning of the training, it decreases and
disappears as the training continues. We conclude that when little is
known about the uncertainty and the dynamics of the environment, the
order effect results from one's coherently and dynamically adaptive
expectations of the statistical properties of the environment.
