Well we've launched into one of my favorite topics - and I am guilty of baiting.
I believe Al Qaeda per se is toothless and almost meaningless as of today. The name Al Qaeda appeals to US and Western audiences, and Dubya needs AlQ. Whatever "strength" AlQ now has comes from a consolidation of islamist forces that used to roam across Norhwest Pakistan and Afghanistan and this includes the Lashar e Tayeba, Jaish e Mohammad (of maulana Masood Azhar), Harkat ul Mujahiddeen and a number of splinter groups who have consolidated. The most recent "AlQ" video has evidence of this consolidation . Earlier AlQ videos never mentioned India - it was always the West and Israel. There have been mentions of India in a few recent videos and tapes, but the latest one likens the Pakistan action in Lal Masjid as being like Babri Masjid in an unlikely analogy that sounds like a sop to the Pakistani Islamist sentiment. The Pakistan connection with AlQ is now complete. Along with the Pakistan connection comes the sponsorship by the ISI. But all these cosy alliances are being put under tremendous strain. Pakistan's support for the forces of jihad is under pressure from the US as well as India and a lot of great (and pleasant, to me) things are happening in Pakistan It only remains to be seen whether a splinter group of the Pakistani army can get control of some nuclear weapons. That would make Al Q regain some of its lost power. Just my opinions. shiv On Wednesday 03 Oct 2007 12:18 pm, Biju Chacko wrote: > > I don't buy this. IMO: > > a. Al Qaida has a lot more to gain from attacks in Iraq, Pakistan than > in the US and Europe. The 9/11 attacks established Al Qaida as the de > facto leaders of Islamic militancy. They're probably focussed now on > building a powerbase in the Middle east. If Dubya hadn't put his foot > into the Iraqi beartrap, we'd probably be seeing an upsurge in > violence in the usual suspects of Lebanon, the West Bank, Pakistan or > Afganistan. > > b. I don't think you can *ever* "kick terrorist butt". The very nature > of terrorist cells is hydra headed: you kill one and two more will > spring up to replace them. The only thing you can do is remove the > environment that nurtures them. The Irish Troubles is a case is point > -- violence subsided only when the militants had confidence that the > peace process was a better way to get what they wanted. > > What will kick Al Quaida butt? A stable Iraq and a viable Palestinian > state. > > -- b
