On Thursday 20 Mar 2008 12:12:32 pm Ingrid wrote: > Yet for all this potential power, the army has now comprehensively lost the > support of its people — a dramatic change from the situation even three > years ago when a surprisingly wide cross-section of the country seemed > prepared to tolerate military rule.
This makes me laugh. How naive the press is. All these "sources" including Dalrymple love to quote Stephen Cohen who has arguably written the best book on Pakistan yet - better than mine - which is saying a lot. But none of them seem to have read, let alone digested what he has written. Cohen accurately describes Pakistan as being under control of an elite "establishment" estimated (by him) at around 1500 individuals. The establishment consists of a mixture of people - who are Army officers. feudal elite and industrialists - many of whom are related by marriage. The "army losing favor" means nothing. An armed force cannot be pushed out of power. What happens in Pakistan is that the army moves out of the direct line of sight of the people and outs others in the establishment into government. The army always retains the economy and foreign policy. The Pakistan army is not a "mad third world army" that bumps off all and sundry. But note how the same names and faces of the establishment keep reappearing - aside from the army. The Bhuttos and now that Botox Baby Benazir is dead - her husband Zardari the "corrupt Mr Ten percent" who had whole lot of cases against him - all dropped. Also back are Nawaz and co. Rule of Pakistan stays within a smallish circle with the army being the single most important cog. All this "Army is unpopular now" is hogwash. The Army was immensely unpopular after 1971 and the deftly handed over to daddy Bhutto, until Zia brought things back under the army. The army is always there and that army is supported and fed by the US because the Pakistan army pimps for the US in exchange for arms to protect against big bad India. My prediction: Pakistan can chart its own course in the world only after the Pakistan army fades and loses power. The Pakistan army will fade and lose power only when the US stops supporting it. The US will stop supporting the Pakistan army only when geopolitical events overtake the world to such a huge extent that the US no longer has the capacity to hold Pakistan. This will not happen soon. shiv
