Yahoo groups is not the best for forums. Sometimes, messages take a very
long time to show up. And so for that long, you don't even know whether
they got posted or not. So here goes (once again).-+-
As I have mentioned, this discussion has already come to a close.
Basically, it is the job of the Singularitarians to defend their theory
and convince everybody, including professors. I am your reviewer here.
It is not my job to convince or tell you what to think. It is my job to
point out the flaws in the theory. If no one is able to answer those
flaws, then the theory stands dismissed.-+-A more detailed response:
So, we have been discussing this for a good long time, and none of you
have claimed to Singularitarians (exceptr Eugen) and so I will assume
that none of the others are.
There is some detail in these subsequent emails (Suresh, Venky, Udhay,
Sirtaj, ss, Eugen, Vinayak, Deepa), but I am going to pass over them
unless one of you is claiming to be a Singularitarian. But even if you
are, please see below how you ought to proceed.
I have a reference here to Clay Christensen's paper entitled "Theory
Building in Management Research" :
http://www.innosight.com/documents/Theory%20Building.pdf . It is
generally applicable to research in all the social sciences and that
includes this theory of Singularity.
The process to be followed for a theory (any theory!) is the following :
Step 1. Observe, describe and measure the phenomena (The 'constructs'
step)
Step 2. Categorization based upon attributes of phenomena (The
'frameworks and typologies' step)
Step 3. Statements of associations (The 'models' step).
In Step 3, various hypotheses are tested. Regression or other analysis
may be used.
Now, anomalies may be observed for a theory. In such a case, the theory
must be revisited and revised as necessary.
-+-
Here is how I have refuted the Singularitarians.
Two problems were pointed out by me:
1. the lack of applicability of Moore's law prior to the Great
Depression. (a point that Nordhaus has also made)
2. the question of baseline hypotheses : Singularitarians, you have to
establish what your baseline hypotheses are. Nobody so far has responded
to the question of a canonical set of hypotheses. Eugen offers the idea
of a feedback loop, but that is not a baseline hypothesis. What I want
to see is an academic paper that clearly spells out the hypotheses and
how they have been tested. Furthermore, Eugen has not answered the
question of the elasticity of substitution. So because he is unfamiliar
with this, he is unable to defend the theory. Note that this is not any
old objection. This objection comes from none other than William
Nordhaus.
We (economists, cognitive scientists, organization behaviorists) have to
be convinced that your theory is, in fact, correct. However, thus far,
we (economists, cognitive scientists, OBers) are not convinced.
In the end, it is just this : people have the right to think what they
want to think. It is not my job to tell them. Anand
