On Mon, Oct 3, 2011 at 4:51 PM, Udhay Shankar N <ud...@pobox.com> wrote:
> Fascinating. Will the next ruling ban inductive logic as well? > > Udhay > > > http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2011/oct/02/formula-justice-bayes-theorem-miscarriage > > A formula for justice > The judgment's logic is highly malleable. I don't think it means the death of Bayesian logic. If the underlying factors for a problem are based on firm data (what appears to have been decisive here is that shoe sale data in relation to each and every pair is imprecise since it isn't otherwise calculated or estimated). So if either through the use of data or through mathematical logic it can be established in another case that a higher level of precision is possible, then I don't think the court will come in the way of the use of such a method. I don't think this judgment is a criticism of Bayesian techniques - rather it's a reinforcement of the reasonable doubt standard. If there is reasonable doubt, the court must acquit. And if the mathematical formula that determines the likelihood of a crime based on circumstantial evidence is inherently based on imprecise data, then the mathematical formula does not obviate reasonable doubt and can't be reliably employed. Regards, Nikhil Mehra Advocate, Supreme Court of India Tel: (+91) 9810776904 Res: C-I/10, AIIMS Campus, Ansari Nagar (East) New Delhi - 110029.
