one of the aspects of luck is being born in environments that contain opportunities. get born into the right set of circumstances and what luck can do for you takes on a whole different meaning. sure, luck happens everywhere - and probably equally - but the sizes of the lucky breaks are different.
On 19 April 2016 at 11:38, Charanya Chidambaram < charanya.chidamba...@gmail.com> wrote: > True. I think we tend to simplify context, environment, having met the > right people at some time who end up helping later, knowledge learnt in a > continuum to - luck in the moment, as it feels like it came together > without effort. > On 19 Apr 2016 10:28 a.m., "Shenoy N" <sheno...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > Acknowledging that most, if not all of your achievements would never have > > been possible had it not been for generous doses of luck is a lovely > > practical philosophy and it is not difficult to see how it will result in > > humbler and more compassionate individuals. However, there is the danger > > that it could - and I've seen this in several members of my immediate > > family - lead to a complacent "what will happen will happen" view on > life > > which tends to dissuade anything in the nature of enterprise. So, > > double-edged, imo, as most practical philosophies tend to be > > > > On 19 April 2016 at 09:41, Charles Haynes <charles.hay...@gmail.com> > > wrote: > > > > > Strongly agree. I'm smart, but my success, such as it is, is more luck > > than > > > skill. > > > > > > That said - luck favors the prepared, and "the more I practice, the > > luckier > > > I get." > > > > > > -- Charles > > > > > > On Tue, 19 Apr 2016 at 11:18 Udhay Shankar N <ud...@pobox.com> wrote: > > > > > > > This strikes a chord. I work with early stage technology > entrepreneurs, > > > and > > > > have done for over 2 decades (this includes the dot.com boom, a > period > > > > that > > > > has special relevance to this topic) I have come across several > people > > > who, > > > > through some confluence of circumstances, have made a lot of money. > The > > > > temptation (including for the people involved) is to imagine this is > > > > because they were smart. This is almost certainly not true, as can > > easily > > > > be demonstrated by the fact that there are always many other people > who > > > are > > > > demonstrably at least as smart who have not succeeded. > > > > > > > > Thoughts? > > > > > > > > Udhay > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/why-luck-matters-more-than-you-might-think/476394/ > > > > > > > > Why Luck Matters More Than You Might Think > > > > > > > > When people see themselves as self-made, they tend to be less > generous > > > and > > > > public-spirited. > > > > > > > > ROBERT H. FRANK MAY 2016 ISSUE BUSINESS > > > > > > > > I’m a lucky man. Perhaps the most extreme example of my considerable > > good > > > > fortune occurred one chilly Ithaca morning in November 2007, while I > > was > > > > playing tennis with my longtime friend and collaborator, the Cornell > > > > psychologist Tom Gilovich. He later told me that early in the second > > > set, I > > > > complained of feeling nauseated. The next thing he knew, I was lying > > > > motionless on the court. > > > > > > > > He yelled for someone to call 911, and then started pounding on my > > > > chest—something he’d seen many times in movies but had never been > > trained > > > > to do. He got a cough out of me, but seconds later I was again > > motionless > > > > with no pulse. Very shortly, an ambulance showed up. > > > > > > > > Ithaca’s ambulances are dispatched from the other side of town, more > > than > > > > five miles away. How did this one arrive so quickly? By happenstance, > > > just > > > > before I collapsed, ambulances had been dispatched to two separate > auto > > > > accidents close to the tennis center. Since one of them involved no > > > serious > > > > injuries, an ambulance was able to peel off and travel just a few > > hundred > > > > yards to me. EMTs put electric paddles on my chest and rushed me to > our > > > > local hospital. There, I was loaded onto a helicopter and flown to a > > > larger > > > > hospital in Pennsylvania, where I was placed on ice overnight. > > > > > > > > Doctors later told me that I’d suffered an episode of sudden cardiac > > > > arrest. Almost 90 percent of people who experience such episodes > don’t > > > > survive, and the few who do are typically left with significant > > > > impairments. And for three days after the event, my family tells me, > I > > > > spoke gibberish. But on day four, I was discharged from the hospital > > > with a > > > > clear head. Two weeks later, I was playing tennis with Tom again. > > > > > > > > If that ambulance hadn’t happened to have been nearby, I would be > dead. > > > > > > > > Not all random events lead to favorable outcomes, of course. Mike > > Edwards > > > > is no longer alive because chance frowned on him. Edwards, formerly a > > > > cellist in the British pop band the Electric Light Orchestra, was > > driving > > > > on a rural road in England in 2010 when a 1,300-pound bale of hay > > rolled > > > > down a steep hillside and landed on his van, crushing him. By all > > > accounts, > > > > he was a decent, peaceful man. That a bale of hay snuffed out his > life > > > was > > > > bad luck, pure and simple. > > > > > > > > Most people will concede that I’m fortunate to have survived and that > > > > Edwards was unfortunate to have perished. But in other arenas, > > randomness > > > > can play out in subtler ways, causing us to resist explanations that > > > > involve luck. In particular, many of us seem uncomfortable with the > > > > possibility that personal success might depend to any significant > > extent > > > on > > > > chance. As E. B. White once wrote, “Luck is not something you can > > mention > > > > in the presence of self-made men.” > > > > > > > > Seeing ourselves as self-made leads us to be less generous and > > > > public-spirited. > > > > My having cheated death does not make me an authority on luck. But it > > has > > > > motivated me to learn much more about the subject than I otherwise > > would > > > > have. In the process, I have discovered that chance plays a far > larger > > > role > > > > in life outcomes than most people realize. And yet, the luckiest > among > > us > > > > appear especially unlikely to appreciate our good fortune. According > to > > > the > > > > Pew Research Center, people in higher income brackets are much more > > > likely > > > > than those with lower incomes to say that individuals get rich > > primarily > > > > because they work hard. Other surveys bear this out: Wealthy people > > > > overwhelmingly attribute their own success to hard work rather than > to > > > > factors like luck or being in the right place at the right time. > > > > > > > > That’s troubling, because a growing body of evidence suggests that > > seeing > > > > ourselves as self-made—rather than as talented, hardworking, and > > > > lucky—leads us to be less generous and public-spirited. It may even > > make > > > > the lucky less likely to support the conditions (such as high-quality > > > > public infrastructure and education) that made their own success > > > possible. > > > > > > > > Happily, though, when people are prompted to reflect on their good > > > fortune, > > > > they become much more willing to contribute to the common good. > > > > > > > > Psychologists use the term hindsight bias to describe our tendency to > > > > think, after the fact, that an event was predictable even when it > > wasn’t. > > > > This bias operates with particular force for unusually successful > > > outcomes. > > > > > > > > In his commencement address to Princeton University’s 2012 graduating > > > > class, Michael Lewis described the series of chance events that > helped > > > make > > > > him—already privileged by virtue of his birth into a well-heeled > family > > > and > > > > his education at Princeton—a celebrated author: > > > > > > > > One night I was invited to a dinner where I sat next to the wife of a > > big > > > > shot of a big Wall Street investment bank, Salomon Brothers. She more > > or > > > > less forced her husband to give me a job. I knew next to nothing > about > > > > Salomon Brothers. But Salomon Brothers happened to be where Wall > Street > > > was > > > > being reinvented—into the Wall Street we’ve come to know and love > > today. > > > > When I got there I was assigned, almost arbitrarily, to the very best > > job > > > > in the place to observe the growing madness: They turned me into the > > > house > > > > derivatives expert. > > > > On the basis of his experiences at Salomon, Lewis wrote his 1989 best > > > > seller, Liar’s Poker, which described how Wall Street financial > > > maneuvering > > > > was transforming the world. > > > > > > > > All of a sudden people were telling me I was a born writer. This was > > > > absurd. Even I could see that there was another, more true narrative, > > > with > > > > luck as its theme. What were the odds of being seated at that dinner > > next > > > > to that Salomon Brothers lady? Of landing inside the best Wall Street > > > firm > > > > to write the story of the age? Of landing in the seat with the best > > view > > > of > > > > the business? … This isn’t just false humility. It’s false humility > > with > > > a > > > > point. My case illustrates how success is always rationalized. People > > > > really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck—especially > > > > successful people. As they age, and succeed, people feel their > success > > > was > > > > somehow inevitable. > > > > Our understanding of human cognition provides one important clue as > to > > > why > > > > we may see success as inevitable: the availability heuristic. Using > > this > > > > cognitive shortcut, we tend to estimate the likelihood of an event or > > > > outcome based on how readily we can recall similar instances. > > Successful > > > > careers, of course, result from many factors, including hard work, > > > talent, > > > > and chance. Some of those factors recur often, making them easy to > > > recall. > > > > But others happen sporadically and therefore get short shrift when we > > > > construct our life stories. > > > > > > > > Little wonder that when talented, hardworking people in developed > > > countries > > > > strike it rich, they tend to ascribe their success to talent and hard > > > work > > > > above all else. Most of them are vividly aware of how hard they’ve > > worked > > > > and how talented they are. They’ve been working hard and solving > > > difficult > > > > problems every day for many years! In some abstract sense, they > > probably > > > do > > > > know that they might not have performed as well in some other > > > environment. > > > > Yet their day-to-day experience provides few reminders of how > fortunate > > > > they were not to have been born in, say, war-torn Zimbabwe. > > > > > > > > Our personal narratives are biased in a second way: Events that work > to > > > our > > > > disadvantage are easier to recall than those that affect us > positively. > > > My > > > > friend Tom Gilovich invokes a metaphor involving headwinds and > > tailwinds > > > to > > > > describe this asymmetry. > > > > > > > > When you’re running or bicycling into the wind, you’re very aware of > > it. > > > > You just can’t wait till the course turns around and you’ve got the > > wind > > > at > > > > your back. When that happens, you feel great. But then you forget > about > > > it > > > > very quickly—you’re just not aware of the wind at your back. And > that’s > > > > just a fundamental feature of how our minds, and how the world, > works. > > > > We’re just going to be more aware of those barriers than of the > things > > > that > > > > boost us along. > > > > That we tend to overestimate our own responsibility for our successes > > is > > > > not to say that we shouldn’t take pride in them. Pride is a powerful > > > > motivator; moreover, a tendency to overlook luck’s importance may be > > > > perversely adaptive, as it encourages us to persevere in the face of > > > > obstacles. > > > > > > > > And yet failing to consider the role of chance has a dark side, too, > > > making > > > > fortunate people less likely to pass on their good fortune. > > > > > > > > The one dimension of personal luck that transcends all others is to > > have > > > > been born in a highly developed country. I often think of Birkhaman > > Rai, > > > > the Bhutanese man who was my cook when I was a Peace Corps volunteer > in > > > > Nepal. He was perhaps the most resourceful person I’ve ever met. > Though > > > he > > > > was never taught to read, he could perform virtually any task in his > > > > environment to a high standard, from thatching a roof to repairing a > > > clock > > > > to driving a tough bargain without alienating people. Even so, the > > meager > > > > salary I was able to pay him was almost certainly the high point of > his > > > > life’s earnings trajectory. If he’d grown up in a rich country, he > > would > > > > have been far more prosperous, perhaps even spectacularly successful. > > > > > > > > Being born in a favorable environment is an enormous stroke of luck. > > But > > > > maintaining such an environment requires high levels of public > > investment > > > > in everything from infrastructure to education—something Americans > have > > > > lately been unwilling to support. Many factors have contributed to > this > > > > reticence, but one in particular stands out: budget deficits > resulting > > > from > > > > a long-term decline in the United States’ top marginal tax rate. > > > > > > > > A recent study by the political scientists Benjamin Page, Larry > > Bartels, > > > > and Jason Seawright found that the top 1 percent of U.S. > wealth-holders > > > are > > > > “extremely active politically” and are much more likely than the rest > > of > > > > the American public to resist taxation, regulation, and government > > > > spending. Given that the wealthiest Americans believe their > prosperity > > is > > > > due, above all else, to their own talent and hard work, is this any > > > wonder? > > > > Surely it’s a short hop from overlooking luck’s role in success to > > > feeling > > > > entitled to keep the lion’s share of your income—and to being > reluctant > > > to > > > > sustain the public investments that let you succeed in the first > place. > > > > > > > > And yet this state of affairs does not appear to be inevitable: > Recent > > > > research suggests that being prompted to recognize luck can encourage > > > > generosity. For example, Yuezhou Huo, a former research assistant of > > > mine, > > > > designed an experiment in which she promised subjects a cash prize in > > > > exchange for completing a survey about a positive thing that had > > recently > > > > happened to them. She asked one group of participants to list factors > > > > beyond their control that contributed to the event, a second group to > > > list > > > > personal qualities and actions that contributed to it, and a control > > > group > > > > to simply explain why the good thing had happened. After completing > the > > > > survey, subjects were given an opportunity to donate some or all of > > their > > > > reward to charity. Those who had been prompted to credit external > > > > causes—many mentioned luck, as well as factors such as supportive > > > spouses, > > > > thoughtful teachers, and financial aid—donated 25 percent more than > > those > > > > who’d been asked to credit personal qualities or choices. Donations > > from > > > > the control group fell roughly midway between those from the other > two > > > > groups. > > > > > > > > Experiments by David DeSteno, a psychologist at Northeastern > > University, > > > > offer additional evidence that gratitude might lead to greater > > > willingness > > > > to support the common good. In one widely cited study, he and his > > > > co-authors devised a clever manipulation to make a group of > laboratory > > > > subjects feel grateful, and then gave them an opportunity to take > > actions > > > > that would benefit others at their own expense. Subjects in whom > > > gratitude > > > > had been stoked were subsequently about 25 percent more generous > toward > > > > strangers than were members of a control group. These findings are > > > > consistent with those of other academic psychologists. Taken > together, > > > the > > > > research suggests that when we are reminded of luck’s importance, we > > are > > > > much more likely to plow some of our own good fortune back into the > > > common > > > > good. > > > > > > > > In an unexpected twist, we may even find that recognizing our luck > > > > increases our good fortune. Social scientists have been studying > > > gratitude > > > > intensively for almost two decades, and have found that it produces a > > > > remarkable array of physical, psychological, and social changes. > Robert > > > > Emmons of the University of California at Davis and Michael > McCullough > > of > > > > the University of Miami have been among the most prolific > contributors > > to > > > > this effort. In one of their collaborations, they asked a first group > > of > > > > people to keep diaries in which they noted things that had made them > > feel > > > > grateful, a second group to note things that had made them feel > > > irritated, > > > > and a third group to simply record events. After 10 weeks, the > > > researchers > > > > reported dramatic changes in those who had noted their feelings of > > > > gratitude. The newly grateful had less frequent and less severe aches > > and > > > > pains and improved sleep quality. They reported greater happiness and > > > > alertness. They described themselves as more outgoing and > > compassionate, > > > > and less likely to feel lonely and isolated. No similar changes were > > > > observed in the second or third groups. Other psychologists have > > > documented > > > > additional benefits of gratitude, such as reduced anxiety and > > diminished > > > > aggressive impulses. > > > > > > > > Economists like to talk about scarcity, but its logic doesn’t always > > hold > > > > up in the realm of human emotion. Gratitude, in particular, is a > > currency > > > > we can spend freely without fear of bankruptcy. Indeed, if you talk > > with > > > > others about their experiences with luck, as I have, you may discover > > > that > > > > with only a little prompting, even people who have never given much > > > thought > > > > to the subject are surprisingly willing to rethink their life > stories, > > > > recalling lucky breaks they’ve enjoyed along the way. And because > these > > > > conversations almost always leave participants feeling happier, it’s > > not > > > > hard to imagine them becoming contagious. > > > > > > > > Copyright © 2016 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All Rights Reserved. > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > > > > > > > ((Udhay Shankar N)) ((udhay @ pobox.com)) ((www.digeratus.com)) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > Narendra Shenoy > > http://narendrashenoy.blogspot.com > > >
