In The Netherlands, they have stuck to their guns about 'herd immunity' but have also talked about managing it rather than just letting the virus run its course. There was a lot of scepticism at first, but it looks like it is working - though it is a model that perhaps only works for a country that has so much disproportionate wealth and number of citizens. Despite the anxiety that the 'intelligent lockdown' which did shut down some large gathering spaces and forced a large community to work from home, the Netherlands has been open. We have all been working and now from next week, they claim that they have reduced the rate of infection while also increasing testing and ICU capacity to an extent where they want to start relaxing the measures more. The day care and primary schools are the first targets. They are going to monitor it to see if this structured opening leads to a sustained rate of infection which can be managed, till we have a large population covered, and protected. There have been bad casualties, and the mass infections in the nursing homes have been the worst in it all. But I have come to appreciate the steps taken to 'manage infection', buying time by closing space, and opeinng up space to stagger time. Nishant
On Wed, Apr 22, 2020 at 1:12 PM Amit Varma <[email protected]> wrote: > On Wed, Apr 22, 2020 at 4:28 PM Udhay Shankar N <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > I assume you mean that it is not a good thing to actively work towards. > > This also presumes that teh authorities can affect this outcome one way > or > > another. > > > > Well, the idea is to delay and mitigate till a vaccine is ready, while > treatment protocols that will lower mortality also evolve at the same time. > The lockdown is a blunt tool, and needs to be combined with > testing-and-tracing etc. India's limited state capacity makes it that much > harder, and there are costs no matter what you do. We'll never know what > the optimal approach was even in hindsight, because you cannot calculate > the costs of any counterfactual. But just letting the virus run amuck and > letting herd immunity do its thing is surely the worst option. > > Also, it is impossible in India, except for privileged elites like us, to > separate the vulnerable from the non-vulnerable. So many poor in congested > cities, more co-morbidities than other nations, and a horrendous healthcare > system -- there would have been carnage. (There still might be carnage down > the road.) > > > > > > Udhay > > > > > -- > Amit Varma > Writer and Columnist > Podcast -- The Seen and the Unseen <http://www.seenunseen.in/> > Blog -- India Uncut <http://www.indiauncut.com> > Twitter -- @amitvarma <http://www.twitter.com/amitvarma> > -- Dr. Nishant Shah (Ph.D.) Vice-President Research, ArtEZ University of the Arts, The Netherlands. Knowledge Partner, Digital Earth Project, Hivos Mentor, Feminist Internet Research Network, APC https://nishantshah.online
