http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/News/Trifkovic/NewsST101502.html ChroniclesExtra! October 15, 2002 THE FAILED SERBIAN ELECTION by Srdja Trifkovic Last Sunday's presidential election in Serbia failed to muster enough votes for the poll to be valid. Only 46 percent of voters took part in the run-off between current Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica and his rival, Miroljub Labus. Kostunica beat Labus by a 2:1 margin, but without the minimum turnout of 50 percent, the result was void. The result is disappointing not only for Labus's sponsors at the IMF but also for Kostunica, whose approval rating at the time of Milosevic's downfall exceeded 80 percent. Most Serbs are disappointed by his apparent inability or unwillingness to confront the corrupt establishment, centered on Serbia's prime minister Zoran Djindjic, that controls the economy and the media more stringently than Milosevic had ever done. What happens next is uncertain. In theory the whole procedure should be repeated within 60 days, according to the legislation inherited from Milosevic's times. In practice there are difficulties. If the voters could not be motivated to turn up in sufficient numbers this time round, there is no reason to believe that things will be different in late December. The full extent of Serbia's economic misery and collective depression will be more painfully felt under the leaden winter sky, deepening the sense of alienation from politics and futility of the proceedings so keenly felt by most Serbs. On the other hand, if the 50 percent requirement introduced by Milosevic is to be removed it will be necessary to draft the necessary legislation at a very short notice and bring it before Serbia's parliament within days. As it happens, the majority in the Assembly is controlled by prime minister Djindjic and his allies from a dozen microscopic parties. That control was enhanced by Djindjic's expulsion of deputies belonging to Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) on a spurious pretext--a move that even Djindjic's foreign backers find hard to defend. If Kostunica is to be installed as Serbia's new president, it is almost certain that he would call a new parliamentary election. Since Djindjic and his allies are likely to suffer badly at the polls, they will not do anything that would place Kostunica in the position to dissolve parliament. An ongoing power vacuum at the top suits Djindjic and his allies, enabling them to continue running the government by default. Djindjic's ploy was evident in his Democratic Party's (DS) quiet sabotage of the second round of voting. He may come under some pressure from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which monitored the elections, and which said the law should be repealed urgently. But that pressure will never be effective unless Djindjic is given some guarantees that he will retain a position of power and influence. Western diplomats in Belgrade point out that, regardless of the outcome of a future parliamentary election, Djindjic's DS will remain the only likely coalition partner for Kostunica's DSS: "The alternative is to make a deal with Seselj's Radicals or Milosevic's Socialists, and Kostunica knows that he cannot even contemplate such a move without losing what little Western support and credibility he still enjoys." Another failed election would further erode Kostunica's already jaded credibility and effectively leave him without a job: the post of the federal head of state will become purely ceremonial, and subject to six-monthly rotation, once the new constitutional platform regulating relations between Serbia and Montenegro is enacted. If there is another electoral flop, Djindjic could resort to another constitutional trick inherited from Milosevic: he could install the temporary speaker of Serbia's parliament--a non-descript woman from one of the mini-parties allied to him--as the acting president of Serbia for a period of up to one year, while the new legislation is drafted and debated. For a cynic devoid of moral scruples such as Djindjic the possibility of extending his rule over Serbia for a year may well prove irresistible, especially if his long-suffering subjects remain numbly apathetic. But as we've seen in the streets of Belgrade two years ago, Serb apathy may easily turn into rage. Watch this space. Serbian News Network - SNN [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.antic.org/
