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09 November 2002 08:06 BDT Home > News > World > Politics
Robert Fisk: George Bush crosses Rubicon - but what lies beyond?
09 November 2002 Internal links Day the world turned on Iraq The face of
power, the raw, real power of Bush's America Waverer voted yes 'to stop use
of force and US right to go to war' Blair gives Saddam a final ultimatum
Baghdad isolated by decision The key points of UN Resolution 1441 Diplomacy
and dollars secure rare unanimity at the UN Bali bombers 'aimed to kill
Americans' Al-Qa'ida preparing for attack, says Interpol Robert Fisk:
George Bush crosses Rubicon - but what lies beyond? Fergal Keane: It could
all go quickly wrong for Mr Bush When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon
river, he wrote, in his Gallic Wars: "Alea iacta est [The die is cast]."
Just after 5pm yesterday, when the United Nations Security Council voted
15-0 to disarm Iraq, the US President George Bush crossed the Rubicon. "The
world must insist that judgement must be enforced," he told us.
The Rubicon is a wide river. It was deep for Caesar's legions. The Tigris
river will be more shallow my guess is that the first American tanks will
be across it within one week of war but what lies beyond?
For Rome, civil war followed. And, be assured, civil war will follow any
American invasion of Iraq. "Cheat and retreat will no longer be tolerated,"
Mr Bush told us yesterday forgetting, of course, UN Security Council
resolutions 242 and 338 which call for Israel to withdraw from the Arab
territories occupied during the 1967 Arab- Israeli war.
And after eight weeks of debate in the Security Council, no one mentioned
the crimes against humanity of 11 September 2001, because of course Iraq
had absolutely nothing to do with 11 September. If the United States invades
Iraq, we should remember that.
And what do we get from Mr Bush? Absolutely no gesture towards the Arab
world. The joy of the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, can be imagined.
"Should we have to use troops," Mr Bush tells us, "the US, with friends,
will move swiftly with force to do the job." In other words, he will
invade Iraq, the "friends", presumably, being British. The United Nations
can debate any Iraqi non-compliance with weapons inspectors, but the United
States will decide whether Iraq has breached UN resolutions. In other words,
America can declare war without UN permission.
So how many of the American tanks entering Baghdad will be flying UN
pennants? None, I suspect.
The BBC, with CNN and all the other television networks, was last night
billing Resolution 1441 as "the last chance" for Saddam Hussein. In fact, it
is the "last chance" for the United Nations. As the UN secretary general,
Kofi Annan, said, the road ahead will be "difficult and dangerous". He can
say that again.
It's easy to see the traps. America's UN ambassador, John Negroponte,
insisted that the Security Council resolution "contains no hidden triggers".
But of course it does. It allows the United States to decide if Iraq has
opposed the resolution. It allows the Security Council to discuss non-
compliance without restraining the United States from attacking Baghdad.
"One way or another," Mr Negroponte said, "Iraq will be disarmed". It's the
"another" way that the UN should be worried about. Sir Jeremy Greenstock,
Britain's nightmare headmaster at the UN, performed appropriately. "Crystal
clear", "unequivocal choice", "serious consequences", "ambiguous
modalities". You could almost feel the cane. No mention, of course, of the
CIA's manipulation of the last team of UN weapons inspectors in Iraq.
Iraqis want peace and an end to sanctions let's forget President Saddam
for a moment and President Bush seems to want war. So Mr Bush must be
praying that the Iraqi President does something to obstruct the UN arms
inspectors. In which case I quote Mr Bush "we will act in the interest
of the world". Thanks George. And thanks Saddam if this feckless, vicious
dictator chooses to defy the UN.
Washington wants a UN fig leaf for a war on Iraq and is willing to go
through an inspection process in the hope that Iraq obstructs it. Mr Annan
was talking yesterday about the "unique legitimacy of the UN". But the cruel
dictator of Baghdad cares as much about that as President Bush.
