South China Morning Post
February 23, 2003
Putin torn between US and European camps when it comes to deciding who
to back in Iraq debate Russia stuck in the middle
Fred Weir in Moscow
Throughout the long years of the Cold War, Moscow conspired to drive
political wedges between Europe and America.
But Russia was caught unawares by this month's rowdy transatlantic split
over how to deal with Saddam Hussein, and the Kremlin is dithering over
whether to line up with anti-war campaigners Germany and France or throw
its support behind a United States-led invasion of Iraq.
"Russia is waiting to see which way the wind blows" before deciding how
to act if the US introduces a pro-war resolution into the UN Security
Council in coming days," says Alexei Malashenko, an expert with the
Carnegie Endowment in Moscow.
"Right now it doesn't seem to be blowing America's way." The key issue,
which Russian policy experts are debating, is how to extract the maximum
benefits for Moscow while doing the least harm, particularly to its
fragile post-September 11 anti-terrorist partnership with the US.
"This presents Russia with a very serious dilemma," said Alexei Arbatov,
a liberal lawmaker and deputy chairman of the State Duma's defence
committee.
"Russia does not support the use of force in Iraq, but by casting our
veto in the Security Council we might appear to be a leader of an
anti-American coalition. That could destroy everything we've gained in
our relations with the US in the past couple of years."
Moscow was not always so timid. Twelve years ago, on the eve of the
first Gulf War, the still-extant Soviet Union tried to fan divisions in
the US-led anti -Saddam coalition by sending Kremlin adviser Yevgeny
Primakov to Baghdad to broker an 11th-hour peace deal.
But even France - then, as now, reluctant to go to war - failed to back
the scheme, and the Soviet initiative fell apart.
Experts say that Russia has inherited many of the former USSR's motives
for opposing war.
These include a traditional foreign policy line that views Iraq as a
valuable client state, major economic investments in Iraqi oilfields and
concern over how to collect the approximately US$ 7 billion (HK$ 54.5
billion) in Soviet -era debt that it still owes Moscow.
Russia inherited the USSR's permanent seat on the UN Security Council -
one of its few remaining sources of superpower-style influence - and can
be expected to react angrily should the US launch an invasion of Iraq
without that body's approval.
"Vladimir Putin has moved Russia into a close partnership with the US,
and despite all differences the Kremlin is determined to maintain that
relationship," said Sergei Oznobichev, director of the independent
Institute of Strategic Forecasting in Moscow.
"This transatlantic quarrel has thrown Russian policy into confusion. No
one is sure what to do if we have to make a hard choice between Europe
and the US."
A minority of Russian policy experts say the widening Euro-American
split could be the beginning of a permanent geopolitical shift that
could see the end of the US-led Nato alliance and the growth of the
European Union into a military and political superpower in its own
right.
"Whatever happens over Iraq, it is clear the post-Cold War order is
going to undergo major changes," said Viktor Kremeniuk, deputy director
of the official Institute of USA-Canada Studies in Moscow.
"We are witnessing the emergence of a Europe that is far less dependent
on the US, more assertive in putting forward its own position and
defending its own interests. Therefore, Russia has a strategic choice to
make: should we go with Europe or the US?"
In the past decade Moscow's commerce with Europe has grown rapidly and
now accounts for more than half of all Russia's foreign trade turnover.
Germany is the biggest single customer for Russian energy exports.
Hopes for a post-Soviet wave of American investment have never
materialised, and many Russians are bitter over the failure of
successive US leaders to repeal Cold War-era laws, such as
Jackson-Vanik, which blocks access for Russian goods to US markets.
"In practical terms, our real partners are in Europe, particularly
France and Germany," Mr Kremeniuk said. "This gives Russia real
incentive to get on board with those countries politically, even when
they are defying the US. It's the obvious choice."
Serbian News Network - SNN
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