Title: Message
Sirs,
America is about to
go to war against Iraq. The reasons for this are varied, but they claim that the
primary reason is to combat terrorism, and to restrain a dictator who has in the
past, and who most certainly will again, use weapons of mass destruction. The
need to enforce UN Resolutions, and to stop a brutal oppression is also
mentioned.
Most nations and people in the world doubt this explanation.
They question the veracity of the Americans, thinking that they are primarily
concerned with oil. Those who are in doubt include the French, and the Germans,
as well as most Europeans. Note that these same people have access to, and daily
use, the very oil that they allege the Americans are lusting after. I haven't
heard that any of them have stopped driving their cars.
When partners
and friends start to question each other's veracity, partnerships are soon
ended. Simply put, in a partnership you must recognize and accept that from time
to time your partner sees the world differently from you. Having accepted each
other's point of view, partners must work things out from there. Rather than
this, we have witnessed the UN, and the NATO alliance in particular, replete
with accusation and mistrust on both sides. The result can only seriously weaken
both the UN and the NATO Alliance, whose days may now be numbered.
And
so...why the letter? I am concerned about the insanity that is inherent in
America's allies pretending to be able to tell the Americans who they are, and
what they really think. Do we want to end our partnership with these people, and
to watch as the Americans vacate the world stage, at least in terms of alliances
and security agreements? Has it occurred to those who hate and question America
that its involvement on that stage is voluntary? Why is it so hard to accept
that they believe w hat they say?
But is this really a problem?
Please recall the history of the last century, and before. The challenge
that the rest of the world has faced vis a vis the USA has always been keeping
them engaged, as the deepest current in American foreign policy is not
engagement, but isolation. A world which appears not only ungrateful - the
American's spent how many hundreds of billions of dollars defending Western
Europe? - but openly hostile to the USA, can only supply fodder for those in
that country who want to return to that most powerful, and dangerous tradition.
In light of what is often a disgusting hatred being directed at the USA ("the
bastards!") by many of their so-called friends, it is likely that the
possibility of a return to isolation, at least in part, is now being mentioned
within the halls of power in America for the first time in sixty years. Such a
retreat would, of course, take decades. But I have to wonder if the obvious
inability of America to rely on some of its oldest allies, to whom it has been
completely loyal for 60 years, hasn't already started this process.
And
it gets worse. The Americans are about to run such high budget deficits that it
may threaten their ability to maintain their old age pension system in coming
years. In twenty or even ten years, when American law-makers must decide between
defending Europe and funding world organizations, or providing pensions to their
citizens, can there be any doubt as to what the outcome will be. The rally-cry
is obvious..."Why are we defending wealthy Europeans and Japanese, while our own
people suffe r?" Oh...I am still waiting for Europe's matching $15 billion to
fight AIDS in Africa.
Also, we are at the start of an energy revolution.
As hydrogen becomes a major source of energy, eventually relieving American
reliance on Arab oil, why would they be in the Middle East at all? Those in
Europe who are driving cars courtesy of the United States Navy, and who are also
complaining vigorously about that same navy, may yet have an opportunity to try
driving without oil. I can hear their battle-crys even now:
"We are
powered by a correct philosophy!" Most crazy people are.
"We will rely
on the UN!" I saw what that did for the people of Rwanda.
Oh, I might
add, many in the world thought that the problem in Rwanda, and in the Balkans at
the same time, was that the USA didn't get involved. This is the essence of my
point.
Finally, given the obvious ingratitude being shown by many of
their allies - by people America always thought it could count on as payback for
decades of American sacrifice - why wouldn't they start to pull back from their
alliances, and from associated international organizations, generally?
Isn't it obvious that Americans will start to think that these
organizations do not serve the USA at all, and that they actually constitute a
useless drain on the American taxpayer?
Won't some Americans start to
think that reliance on world organizations is actually dangerous?
Didn't
George Washington warn the people of the United States that Europeans couldn't
be trusted or relied-upon?
Won't many in America start to again think
that their first President was absolutely correct, and that the half-century
American experiment with engagement was a terrible mistake?
Do you just
despise the Americans? They are not perfect, but would you prefer the British,
French, Russian, German, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Japanese, and Belgian
empires that came before...empires which were themselves destroyed after WW2, in
large part by an America which simply refused to support those countries in
trying to rebuild them. The UN is not an option...just look at it. And world
history is a history of empire. Are we so naive as to think that other empires
would not be esta blished again without the USA in the way? What is the French
Army doing in the Ivory Coast, right now, for example?
Like it or not,
America is the glue that holds the world we know together. You don't like the
idea of the USA fighting a war? Consider that without them being actively
engaged in the world, the following wars would definitely break out:
1)
China versus Taiwan and others as China asserts sovereignty over wide areas of
the Pacific Ocean. The United States Navy is in the way at the moment, but the
Chinese expect them to leave some day. This is the reason why the Chinese have
started to build a deep-seas navy for the first time in 600 years;
2)
North Korea versus South Korea, which war is guaranteed to break out once the
37,000 American soldiers there leave, and the North seeks to relieve its
internal problems with external aggression;
3) eventually, Pakistan
versus India, which could go nuclear. American trade, diplomacy, and other
pressures are having a positive effect there. No one else has as much influence;
4) eventually, Germany versus France, and others. Sorry...Gaulic pride
and German arrogance will definitely rise again without the USA there to unite
them in their hatred and envy of all things American. Am I wrong in this?
Consider that the European Union has barely returned Europe to where it was
prior to WW1. How were Europeans doing between 1914 and 1918? The history of
that continent is a history literally bathed in blood. The Union conquered
nationalism? Take a look at the Balkans in t he early 1990's if you think
nationalism is dead there. Europeans are one generation away from another
pan-continental blood-letting...they always are. Only the United States Army has
brought them 60 years of peace, and France will never be strong enough to
contain Europe, no matter how highly they think of themselves;
5) Greece
versus Turkey, with the flash-point being Cyprus. Right now they are only
restrained as they are both in NATO, which Alliance would not exist without the
USA:
6) Another Balkan war...you pick the participants;
7)
Russia versus the Baltic states, and a range of others;
8) Israel versus
various Arab States;
9) Other wars, especially in Central and South
America.
Essentially, without America actively engaged in the world, we
would witness a world at war....
And so, do you actually think the US
Army, Navy and Airforce and Marines are causing more deaths by war in this
world, or are they preventing more people from being killed in wars by being
actively engaged in providing some balance on a fragile planet? If the answer
isn't obvious to you, get ready to find out.
Personally, I think that it
is already too late. I am now convinced that over the next twenty years we will
witness an American retreat from its alliances and its support for world
organizations, other than the WTO, as they come to realize that their 60-year
experiment with engagement was itself the essence of the tragedy of September
11th. After their retreat, get ready for a return to a world circa 1914, but
with even more "contestants". I'm not worried however...I'm sure the French will
protect us...particularly if we live in Africa...
Arthur
Heale
Ottawa
