Lucio wrote:
In order to produce strong AI, though, we need to understand the mind from low to high levels, or understand the processes that make high levels emerge from low ones. That seems a much tortuous scientific path, one that cannot be achieved by conventional and comparatively predictable curves of engineering improvement.
On general principles, I would agree with Lucio that uploading is fundamentally more straightforward than Strong AI (AGI) However, I'm pretty pleased with the current state of the Novamente AI design, and based on this specific knowledge I'm more positive about the near-term development of AGI. Strong AI requires a more fundamental breakthrough than uploading ... but I feel like in the last few years of work on the Novamente AGI design, I've made that breakthrough ;-) On the other hand, uploading may be fundamentally more straightforward than Strong AI, but there is a reaaaaaalll lot of work required to get from here to there... Another way to put is it: The odds of getting to uploading within 50 years are higher than the odds of getting to Strong AI within 50 years. But, the odds of getting to Strong AI within 10-15 years are way higher than the odds of getting to uploading within 10-15 years. With Strong AI, the right set of wacky ideas (Novamente, I hope) can bring about very fast progress. Whereas uploading is almost surely going to come (relatively) slowly but surely through the progress of incremental science. -- Ben ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
