Re: [singularity] Defining the Singularity

[deering]

The word 'Singularity' in the futurism context, rather than the mathematical or science context, is a label for something in the real world.  Something that someone noticed and said, "Hey, we need a word for this!"  That someone was Verner Vinge and what he noticed was that technology, due in part to Moore's Law, would likely, soon produce a smarter-than-human intelligence (STHI), and that this STHI would likely, have a profound effect on all of our lives, and that this effect and the STHI's behavior would be unpredictable to us merely human intelligences.  This was the beginning of the Singularity concept, but history did not stop there.   Next, Kurzweil noticed that Moore's Law, as an exponential function, had similar functions in other areas of technological development, such as, miniaturization of electro-mechanical systems, and the accumulation of basic data in molecular biology.  Likewise, Kurzweil noticed that each of these different fields seemed to be converging on a significant utilitarian milestone in a similar time frame.  In so much that miniaturization is driving all other areas of technological progress it is certainly connected to the Singularity.  I find the likelihood of a technological Singularity without technology to be very low.  Exponential technological development isn't an effect of the Singularity but rather its cause.    Going beyond the definition of Singularity we can make some educated guesses about the most likely conditions under which the Singularity will occur.  Due to technological synergy, the creation of STHI will happen coincident with the achievement of molecular manufacturing and the completion of all basic biological molecular functions including gene _expression_ control functions and proteomics.  For all three of these highly significant events to occur at the same time ensures sudden and massive sociological disruption.  Do we need to create new terms for all of these significant events, nanotech singularity, biological engineering singularity, social singularity, that are happening at the same time?  Or can we just roll it all into one bog ball and call the whole thing the Singularity?  As our understanding of these processes evolves so should our definition of Singularity.     Mike Deering, General Editor, http://nano-catalog.com/   Director, Singularity Action Group http://home.mchsi.com/~deering9/index.html  Email: deering9 at mchsi dot com This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]