On May 29, 2007, at 11:36 AM, Jonathan H. Hinck wrote:
Indeed, displacement of the human labor force began since the
beginning of the industrial revolution (if not before). This is the
definition of technology. And, indeed, the jump form a labor-based
to an automation-based economy would entail a necessary paradigm
shift on a number of levels: economic, sociological, psychological,
ethical…
My concern is that, if humanity is suddenly presented with the
strong possibility of such change as a result of, say, an
announcement of the Turing Test being passed, the resulting shock
could produce a reaction which inhibits the move toward
comprehensive automation.
This is why I, for one, am not in favor of these discussions being
carried on in private only by the initiated, interested, or self-
appointed. This whole issue is too “big” for any small group, and
they don’t own it (though they may think they do.)
But you just said that you think the larger group would shut it down
if they believed it was a real possibility. Do you want it to be shut
down or not? If your assessment is correct then trumpeting it would
likely result in shutting it down. The majority of the people never
have and never will make any of humanity's great advances. It always
come from the few.
That said the discussions are pretty much all publicly available. Let
those that have ears to hear and minds to understand do so.
The public needs to be exposed, perhaps over a gradual period of
time. The realization of civil rights, for instance, was not
achieved in a short period, but, rather, over a long interval
characterized by struggle, debate, and, finally, acceptance
(grudging acceptance for many).
At any rate, as you point out, there doesn’t seem of to be any
discussion of any transitional plan, either organizationally or
psychologically, from one economic paradigm to another. What
happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? I
would rather not find out, but remove the object(s) instead, which
will entail a major undertaking that is yet to be initiated.
Seldom is both an irresistible force and an immovable object
present. The technology will be advanced bit by bit and the world
will struggle to change with changing circumstances. We do need to
think about the grading to the ever larger changes that are coming.
But that is not effectively done by stirring up large segments of the
public.
Or do I misunderstand what you have in mind?
- samantha
Jon
Today, May 29, 2007, 3 hours ago | [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The rubber has already hit the road. Automation and computer
displacement of jobs is an old story. The real challenge in my mind
is how the world at large will shift to a post-scarcity economics
and at what point. More importantly what are the least disruptive
and most beneficial steps along the way. Clearly we cannot jump to
livable financial and material benefits to all regardless of
employment in one great leap. So what is the grading along the way?
From: Jonathan H. Hinck [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 10:02 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: [singularity] The humans are dead...
Sorry, me again. I was thinking specifically along the lines a
movement which could present to humanity the (potential) benefits of
an automated world where, among other things, wage slavery and its
resulting inequities and hardships are abolished and supplanted by
machines (to use the most general term) which monitor and take care
of humanity.
My concern, as a futurist, is that if the discussion is framed in
terms of immediate economic dislocation (which it often seems to
be), then there will more likely be a less-than-positive reaction
from John Q. Public, who will view machines as an immediate threat.
If, therefore, an automated future is going to have any chance in
the political arena (where it will eventually end up, sooner or
later), then perhaps Futurists need to pre-empt the Luddites (and
pseudo-Luddites) somehow, before the rubber hits the road.
Jon
-----Original Message-----
From: Jonathan H. Hinck [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 9:15 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: [singularity] The humans are dead...
Is a broad-based political/social movement to (1) raise
consciousness regarding the potential of A.I. and its future
implications and to, in turn, (2) stimulate public discussion about
this whole issue possible at this time? Or is there simply too much
disagreement (or, at Ben put it, too much disregard for the "geeks")
for this to be possible? (Please,
please, thoughts anyone?)
Jon
-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Elis [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 9:19 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: [singularity] The humans are dead...
Ben Goertzel wrote:
> Right now, no one cares what a bunch of geeks and freaks
> say about AGI and the future of humanity.
>
> But once a powerful AGI is actually created by person X, the prior
> mailing list posts of X are likely to be scrutinized, and
> interpreted by people whose points of view are as far from
> transhumanism as you can possibly imagine ... but who
> may have plenty of power in the world...
This understanding of the world we live in is where my posts on this
topic originate.
But, Ben is being optimistic. I would suggest the situation is even
worse. If person X actually comes up with some exciting result short
of
real AGI, and this gets widespread media attention, the same scrutiny
will begin in earnest. If you're person X, and you haven't been
careful,
you might not get the chance to complete your work the way you want
to.
Regardless, the powers that be won't have to go sifting through
thousands of emails either. Think of all the people you've disagreed
with over the years. Think of all the people who could be jealous of
your achievement. Sour grapes and outright dislike will see to it that
your views on *many* things get to the wrong people.
Keith
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