AG: The mid-point of the singularity
window could be as close as 2009. A rediculously pessimistic prediction
would put it around 2012. That would have to assume that some large
external event has caused massive social disruption and the people who
actually work on these algorithms are utter blockheads who can't see
what it can truly do. On the short side, we could literally be hours
away from a hard takeoff (yes, I realize it's almost August of 2007).
Nuts. And ditto all such predictions or, er, fantasies.
Here are AG and others predicting when an AGI will, so to speak, leap tall
buildings and fly, and AGI hasn't got to square one - can't even crawl let
alone, stand up or take a first step. There isn't an AGI system that has
shown, in even the most modest way, higher adaptivity - the capacity, in any
given activity, to find new kinds of paths, or take new kinds of steps, to
its goals - which are, by definition, not derived from its original
programming. The capacity, say, to find a new kind of path through a maze or
forest. From that will come the capacity to learn new kinds of activities,
without preprogramming. (Put that another way - there isn't a single system
that can transcend its programming).
Make a reasoned prediction about AGI taking that first step or crawl - point
me to who's going to do it and roughly how and when. And then maybe, we can
talk about when superAGI's will fly.. Otherwise it's all mathematical
masturbation.
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