I'm going to stick my neck out and make some Linux on the desktop
predictions. [Note: I'm only talking about the desktop, not about
servers, where things are rather different! By "desktop" I mean something
like "what a user spends a large amount of time sitting in front of",
though I don't include specialised stuff like point of sale systems and
embedded controllers in cars :-).]
By mid 2003 (three years away)
* the number of Linux desktop users will pass the number of MacOS
desktop users; at this point both systems will have around 3%
of the desktop market.
* most of the individual desktop Linux users will still be
techies, or friends and relatives of techies. But an increasing
number of corporations and organisations will be adopting it
as a standard - these will mostly be largish (500+ machine)
organisations, along with some medium-sized (100+) ones.
[It may seem the wrong way around, but I think the slowest groups
to convert to Linux will be home users and small businesses: big
organisations are slower to change but have more to gain, and when they
do change, a lot of machines will be involved.]
Danny.
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